Hindistan rupisi, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f seans\u0131nda ABD dolar\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131na 95,33 civar\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de\u011fi\u015fmeden i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Piyasalar, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131 beklenen Hindistan Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBI) politika karar\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Repo faizinin %5,25\u2019te sabit kalmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; bir sonraki a\u00e7\u0131klama 05 A\u011fustos 2026 \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc 04:30\u2019da planlan\u0131rken, hem beklenti hem de \u00f6nceki veri %5,25 seviyesinde. Haziran T\u00dcFE enflasyonu y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %4,4\u2019e y\u00fckselerek RBI\u2019nin %2\u2013%6 hedef band\u0131 i\u00e7inde kald\u0131; emtia fiyatlar\u0131 ve zay\u0131flayan muson, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskler olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Petrol fiyatlar\u0131, odak ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinde kal\u0131rken g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. 19 A\u011fustos vadeli MCX Ham Petrol kontrat\u0131 %1,3 art\u0131\u015fla 7.745 rupi civar\u0131na y\u00fckseldi; bu hareket, ithalata ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 bir ekonomi i\u00e7in olumsuz bir r\u00fczg\u00e2r olabilir. Dolar, TS\u0130 14:00\u2019te a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Haziran JOLTS A\u00e7\u0131k \u0130\u015f Say\u0131s\u0131 verisi \u00f6ncesinde Pazartesi g\u00fcnk\u00fc kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 korudu; beklenti 7,45 milyon, May\u0131s verisi 7,594 milyon. Dolar Endeksi 100,00 civar\u0131nda seyretti. USD\/INR paritesinde spot, 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA olan 95,7234 seviyesinin alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rken, RSI (14) 44,18\u2019de. Diren\u00e7 95,72 ve 96,00; destek ise 94,80 ve 94,21 seviyelerinde g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Hindistan Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yar\u0131n repo faizini %5,25\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131 geni\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde beklenirken, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n k\u0131sa straddle veya iron condor gibi bant i\u00e7i (range-bound) stratejiler kullanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak Hindistan\u2019da perakende enflasyonun RBI\u2019nin %2\u2013%6 hedef band\u0131 i\u00e7inde rahat seyretti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; bu da ani para politikas\u0131 s\u00fcrprizi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131yor. Bu politika istikrar\u0131, USD\/INR paritesinin \u00e7ok k\u0131sa vadede yatay kalmas\u0131n\u0131 destekleyebilir ve opsiyon primi toplama stratejilerini daha uygun h\u00e2le getirebilir.<\/p>\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan, parite 95,72\u2019deki 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcssel hareketli ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131nda bask\u0131land\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece USD\/INR put opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 veya vadeli kontratta k\u0131sa pozisyonu tercih ediyoruz. Momentum g\u00f6stergesi, y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor; bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm pariteyi 94,80\u2019deki kritik deste\u011fe do\u011fru itebilir. Bu deste\u011fin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 h\u00e2linde, Haziran dip seviyesi olan 94,21\u2019e do\u011fru daha derin bir geri \u00e7ekilme g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n
Hindistan ham petrol ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n %80\u2019inden fazlas\u0131n\u0131 ithal etti\u011fi i\u00e7in, oynak ABD-\u0130ran m\u00fczakerelerini ve h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda 7.745 rupi civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6ren MCX ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlemek gerekiyor. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda olas\u0131 ani bir s\u0131\u00e7rama, tarihsel olarak Hindistan\u2019\u0131n d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 geni\u015fletiyor; ayl\u0131k ortalama s\u0131kl\u0131kla 20 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kan a\u00e7\u0131k, rupi \u00fczerinde ciddi bask\u0131 yaratabiliyor. Bu riski hedge etmek i\u00e7in, USD\/INR k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131za ek olarak MCX ham petrol kontratlar\u0131nda uzun call opsiyonu ta\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca yakla\u015fan ABD JOLTS ve Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam verileri \u00f6ncesinde 100,00 kritik e\u015fi\u011fi civar\u0131nda seyreden ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin yak\u0131ndan izlenmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD istihdam verileri, rupi taraf\u0131ndaki son d\u00f6nemdeki g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeyi h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde tersine \u00e7evirebilir ve USD\/INR\u2019yi yeniden 96,00 diren\u00e7 seviyesine do\u011fru ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, ABD i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc raporlar\u0131n\u0131n tetikleyebilece\u011fi sert dalgalanmalara kar\u015f\u0131 t\u00fcm k\u0131sa dolar pozisyonlar\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes (stop-loss) seviyeleri belirlemelidir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Rupi 95,33\u2019te yatay: g\u00f6zler yar\u0131n RBI\u2019da. Repo %5,25\u2019te kalabilir, enflasyon %4,4. Petrol ve dolar riski s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. USD\/INR 95,72 alt\u0131nda; bant stratejileri, hedge \u00f6nerisi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50001,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52330","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t