Alt\u0131n, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f kaydetti ancak Orta Do\u011fu\u2019dan gelecek yeni geli\u015fmeler beklenirken kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 geni\u015fletmekte zorland\u0131. ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine ili\u015fkin belirsizlik, g\u00fcvenli liman ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 desteklemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131 enflasyon kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 ve ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentilerini g\u00fcndemde tutarak faiz getirisi olmayan k\u00fcl\u00e7eye olan deste\u011fi s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. \u0130ran, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD ile m\u00fczakerelerin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc iddialar\u0131n\u0131 yalanlad\u0131; bu durum, Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n hafta sonu sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 iptal ederken yeniden ba\u015flayan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelere at\u0131fta bulunmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Trump\u2019tan sert tepki gelmesine yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Ayr\u0131 olarak, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u0130slam Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Ordusu\u2019nun (IRGC) Kuveyt\u2019teki bir ABD askeri \u00fcss\u00fcn\u00fc en az \u00fc\u00e7 drone ile hedef ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bildirildi; bu geli\u015fme, be\u015f ayd\u0131r s\u00fcren ABD-\u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n diplomatik yollarla sona erece\u011fine dair beklentileri zay\u0131flatt\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Dini Lideri\u2019ne yak\u0131n \u00fcst d\u00fczey bir dan\u0131\u015fman olan Mohsen Rezaee, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lma s\u00fcrecinde oldu\u011funa dair iddialar\u0131 reddetti ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n alternatif g\u00fczerg\u00e2hlara izin vermeyece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi; bu tutumu uygulamak i\u00e7in ABD sava\u015f gemilerinin hedef al\u0131naca\u011f\u0131 uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu. \u0130ran destekli Husilerin Suudi Arabistan\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesiyle, enerji arz\u0131na dair endi\u015feler petroldeki k\u0131smi toparlanmay\u0131 destekledi. Faiz patikas\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kal\u0131yor: CME FedWatch Tool, Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %60+ ve y\u0131l sonuna kadar %85+ olarak g\u00f6steriyor; bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, ISM PMI verisinin Temmuz ay\u0131nda fabrika faaliyetinin d\u00f6rt y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 i\u015faret etmesiyle de peki\u015fti. Teknik olarak XAU\/USD 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131nda; MACD pozitif, RSI 46,48, diren\u00e7 4.200 dolar civar\u0131nda, ard\u0131ndan 4.490,33 dolar; destek ise Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam (NFP) raporu \u00f6ncesinde 3.976\u20134.000 dolar band\u0131nda.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ABD Dolar\u0131 senaryosuna pozisyonlanmalar\u0131n\u0131 ve Alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131ya haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Temmuz ISM PMI\u2019\u0131n 54,3% ile \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131 zirveye y\u00fckselmesiyle ABD imalat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki son g\u00fc\u00e7lenme, daha y\u00fcksek faiz oranlar\u0131 tezini g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde destekliyor. Piyasan\u0131n Aral\u0131k 2026 sonuna kadar bir Fed faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na %85 olas\u0131l\u0131k bi\u00e7mesiyle, Alt\u0131n gibi getiri \u00fcretmeyen varl\u0131klar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kar\u015f\u0131 r\u00fczg\u00e2rlarla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecektir.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki gerilimin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 normalde g\u00fcvenli liman al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 tetiklese de, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki e\u015fzamanl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f enflasyon endi\u015felerini besleyerek Alt\u0131n\u2019\u0131n yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc fiilen s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak, artan enerji maliyetleriyle birlikte ya\u015fanan jeopolitik kriz d\u00f6nemlerinde ABD Dolar endeksi (DXY) Alt\u0131n\u2019a k\u0131yasla daha iyi performans g\u00f6sterme e\u011filimindedir; ge\u00e7mi\u015f enerji \u015foklar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere, dolar bir ay i\u00e7inde %5\u2019i a\u015fan y\u00fckseli\u015fler kaydedebilmi\u015ftir. Savunmac\u0131 sermayenin b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan emilece\u011fini, bu nedenle Alt\u0131n\u2019\u0131n sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 olduk\u00e7a k\u0131r\u0131lgan kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in, XAU\/USD\u2019de 3.976 dolar destek seviyesini hedefleyen \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131 gibi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc stratejilerin uygulanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. 4.200 dolar civar\u0131ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc direncin hemen \u00fczerinde al\u0131m (call) spread sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 da, zay\u0131f teknik momentum g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda cazip bir risk-getiri oran\u0131 sunuyor. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam (NFP) verisi \u00f6ncesinde g\u00fcn i\u00e7i ani s\u0131\u00e7ramalara yakalanmadan mevcut yatay konsolidasyon faz\u0131ndan faydalanmam\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki seanslarda 3.976 ile 4.000 dolar aras\u0131ndaki kritik destek b\u00f6lgesini \u00e7ok yak\u0131ndan izlememiz gerekiyor. Bu e\u015fi\u011fin alt\u0131nda gelecek net bir g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n, otomatik stop-loss emirlerinde yo\u011funla\u015fmay\u0131 tetiklemesi ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc daha derin destek seviyelerine do\u011fru h\u0131zland\u0131rmas\u0131 muhtemel. Alt\u0131n, 4.490 dolar civar\u0131ndaki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalamas\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden kazanmay\u0131 ba\u015farana kadar, k\u0131sa vadeli y\u00fckseli\u015fleri \u00f6ncelikli sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirmeliyiz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alt\u0131nda kritik e\u015fik! Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi s\u00fcrse de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar, y\u00fckselen petrol ve Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131 XAU\/USD\u2019yi bask\u0131l\u0131yor: 3.976\u20134.000 destek, 4.200 diren\u00e7; NFP \u00f6ncesi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 risk b\u00fcy\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49965,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52328","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t