WTI, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya seans\u0131nda gece saatlerinde g\u00fcn i\u00e7i i\u015flemlerde 77,00 dolar\u0131n orta seviyelerinin alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan gelen toparlanmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckseldi. ABD ham petrol g\u00f6stergesi g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %0,75 art\u0131\u015fla 79,40 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki sava\u015f risk fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcksek tuttu\u011fu i\u00e7in fiyat hareketi temkinli kald\u0131. \u0130ran, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD ile y\u00fcr\u00fcyen bir g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve herhangi bir toplant\u0131 plan\u0131 bulunmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi; bu a\u00e7\u0131klama, m\u00fczakerelerin yeniden ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair \u00f6nceki iddialar\u0131 zay\u0131flatt\u0131. Kuveyt\u2019teki ABD varl\u0131klar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik drone sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131na ili\u015fkin do\u011frulanmam\u0131\u015f haberler belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131rarak jeopolitik risk priminin korunmas\u0131na neden oldu.<\/p>\n
Endi\u015felerin oda\u011f\u0131nda deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fczerg\u00e2hlar\u0131 da vard\u0131. \u00dcst d\u00fczey bir \u0130ranl\u0131 askeri dan\u0131\u015fman, Tahran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan \u0130ran \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti\u2019nin belirledi\u011fi rota d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda herhangi bir g\u00fczerg\u00e2ha izin vermeyece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi ve gerginli\u011fin s\u00fcrmesi halinde ABD gemileri ve g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin ciddi risk ve kay\u0131p ihtimaliyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalabilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu. Ayr\u0131 olarak, \u0130ran destekli Husilerin Suudi Arabistan\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 deniz ablukas\u0131 arz endi\u015felerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. OPEC+\u2019\u0131n Pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc Eyl\u00fcl\u2019den itibaren \u00fcretimi art\u0131rma karar\u0131 almas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, piyasada belirleyici olan bu fakt\u00f6rler olurken, y\u00fckseli\u015fi izleyen al\u0131mlar s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flemler yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, WTI\u2019\u0131n 79,40 dolar seviyesine yak\u0131n konsolide oldu\u011fu \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda temkinli ve bant i\u00e7inde (range-bound) bir strateji benimsemelerini \u00f6neriyoruz. Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 jeopolitik risk primi ge\u00e7ici bir taban olu\u015ftursa da, piyasada net bir k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 destekleyecek s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir bir y\u00fckseli\u015f momentumu bulunmuyor. Bu belirsizli\u011fi y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in, sermayeyi a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 ba\u011flamadan ani volatilite s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131n\u0131 yakalamak ad\u0131na bull call spread\u2019leri veya k\u0131sa vadeli strangle stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda ya\u015fanabilecek kesinti tehdidi kritik bir belirleyici olmaya devam ediyor; zira bu dar su yolu g\u00fcnde 20 milyon varilin \u00fczerinde petrol\u00fcn ge\u00e7i\u015fine imk\u00e2n tan\u0131yor ve bu miktar k\u00fcresel petrol s\u0131v\u0131 t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k geliyor. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n bu deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 rotalar\u0131 \u00fczerinde kontrol iddias\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmesi ve Husi g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin gemileri hedef almas\u0131 nedeniyle, olas\u0131 bir fiili arz kesintisi fiyatlar\u0131 h\u0131zla 80 dolar\u0131n orta seviyelerine ta\u015f\u0131yabilir. Bu gerilimler t\u0131rman\u0131rken pozisyon a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f zamanlamas\u0131 i\u00e7in opsiyonlar\u0131n z\u0131mni volatilitesinin yak\u0131ndan izlenmesini tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n
Arz taraf\u0131nda ise OPEC+\u2019\u0131n Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131ndan itibaren g\u00f6n\u00fcll\u00fc \u00fcretim k\u0131s\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 kademeli olarak sonland\u0131rma karar\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edemeyece\u011fi orta vadeli bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc r\u00fczg\u00e2r yarat\u0131yor. Planlanan arz art\u0131\u015f\u0131, \u00f6zellikle k\u00fcresel ekonomik yava\u015flama korkular\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7mi\u015fte petrol y\u00fckseli\u015flerini s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ortamda, piyasan\u0131n bu ek arz\u0131 ne \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde absorbe edebilece\u011fini test edebilir. Jeopolitik korku ile yakla\u015fan fiziksel arz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 aras\u0131nda denge kuran piyasada, 82 dolar \u00fczerindeki kullan\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) call opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 prim toplama a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan uygulanabilir bir strateji olabilir.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak, tekrarlayan jeopolitik restle\u015fmelerin ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde petrol piyasalar\u0131 k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra, fiziksel ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n uyum sa\u011flamas\u0131yla h\u0131zla ortalamaya d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f (mean reversion) e\u011filimi sergiler. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f Orta Do\u011fu gerilimlerine ili\u015fkin veriler, varil ba\u015f\u0131na 5 ila 10 dolarl\u0131k ilk risk primlerinin, fiili arz kesintisi ya\u015fanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 takdirde \u00e7o\u011funlukla iki ila \u00fc\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde eridi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu nedenle, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 ge\u00e7 a\u015fama rallileri kovalamaktan ka\u00e7\u0131nmaya; yaz sonuna yakla\u015f\u0131rken a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskleri hedge etmeye odaklanmaya \u00e7a\u011f\u0131r\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Petrolde kritik e\u015fik: WTI 79,40 dolarda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckselirken Orta Do\u011fu\/H\u00fcrm\u00fcz risk primi fiyat\u0131 destekliyor. Ancak OPEC+ Eyl\u00fcl arz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor; t\u00fcrevde bant stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50007,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52321","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t