EUR\/USD, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya saatlerinde 1,1500 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki belirsizlikten destek bulmas\u0131yla \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc ard\u0131\u015f\u0131k seansta da geriledi. ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda diplomatik umutlar s\u00fcrse de, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yacak olas\u0131 bir t\u0131rmanma, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutma e\u011filimini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir. Bu zeminde Donald Trump, b\u00fcy\u00fck bir sald\u0131r\u0131y\u0131 iptal etmesinin ard\u0131ndan son m\u00fczakere teklifini \u201cson \u015fans\u201d olarak nitelendirirken, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131na ili\u015fkin endi\u015felerin ele al\u0131nmas\u0131 \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc belirtildi. \u0130ran Dini Lideri\u2019nin dan\u0131\u015fman\u0131 Mohsen Rezaei ise ko\u015fullar\u0131 reddederek \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ikinci bir koridora izin vermeyece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi ve yabanc\u0131 sava\u015f gemileri ya da g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin hedef al\u0131naca\u011f\u0131 uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu.<\/p>\n\n
Para politikas\u0131nda, Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n operasyonel de\u011fi\u015fiklikleri de\u011ferlendirdi\u011fi aktar\u0131l\u0131yor. Buna g\u00f6re y\u0131lda alt\u0131 faiz karar\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131na ek olarak, daha geni\u015f ekonomik politikaya odaklanan iki ilave oturum g\u00fcndemde. Piyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131nda Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD Temmuz istihdam raporu var: Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam\u2019\u0131n 57 binden 83 bine y\u00fckselmesi beklenirken, \u0130\u015fsizlik Oran\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Haziran\u2019daki %4,2\u2019den %4,3\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Euro, ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 umutlar\u0131yla ham petrol\u00fcn gerilemesiyle bir miktar destek buldu; ancak para piyasalar\u0131, Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde fiyatlanm\u0131\u015f olsa da, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma beklentilerini t\u00f6rp\u00fcledi. TD Securities\u2019in CTA Tracker g\u00f6stergesi, sistematik Euro vadeli pozisyonlanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7mek i\u00e7in \u201cCTA positioning est., EUR\u201d verisini \u201cbig downtape\u201d, \u201cdowntape\u201d ve \u201cflat tape\u201d rejimleri \u00fczerinden izliyor.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD istihdam verisi \u00f6ncesinde k\u0131sa vadeli EUR\/USD straddle veya strangle alarak yak\u0131n vadede olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmaya haz\u0131rlanmalar\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Parite 1,1500 etraf\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131k seyrederken haftal\u0131k \u00f6rt\u00fck volatilite g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerde; bu da opsiyon piyasas\u0131n\u0131n olas\u0131 hareketleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Tarihsel olarak, 83 binlik tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam tahmininden yaln\u0131zca 30 binlik bir sapma, verinin a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131\u011f\u0131 ilk saat i\u00e7inde paritede ortalama 70 piplik hareketi tetikledi.<\/p>\n\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki k\u0131r\u0131lgan durum g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, uzun Euro pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 hedge etmek i\u00e7in vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) Brent call opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Ani bir jeopolitik t\u0131rmanma, petrol\u00fc varil ba\u015f\u0131na 85 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine kolayl\u0131kla ta\u015f\u0131yabilir; artan enerji ithalat maliyetleri nedeniyle Euro\u2019yu 1,1350\u2019ye do\u011fru bask\u0131layabilir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k diplomatik \u00e7abalar\u0131n sonu\u00e7 vermesi halinde Brent 70 dolara do\u011fru gerileyerek EUR\/USD\u2019yi 1,1620\u2019deki \u00f6nemli dirence do\u011fru ta\u015f\u0131yabilir.<\/p>\n\n
Emtia i\u015flem dan\u0131\u015fmanlar\u0131n\u0131n (CTA) Euro\u2019da \u015fu anda n\u00f6trden hafif k\u0131sa tarafa yak\u0131n bir e\u011filim ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131 nedeniyle, sistematik ak\u0131m seviyelerinin yak\u0131ndan izlenmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Son algoritmik takip verilerine g\u00f6re 1,1480 destek seviyesinin alt\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lma, CTA \u201cdowntape\u201d modellerinden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc otomatik sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 tetikleyecek. Bu sistematik davran\u0131\u015ftan faydalanmak isteyen vadeli i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, bu e\u015fi\u011fin hemen alt\u0131na stop-entry sat\u0131\u015f emirleri yerle\u015ftirmeyi de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n\n
Ayr\u0131ca faiz farklar\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fime g\u00f6re pozisyonlanmak gerekiyor: Fed fon vadeli kontratlar\u0131, ABD i\u015fsizli\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen %4,3\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karsa faizlerin sabit tutulma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %65 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Euro B\u00f6lgesi para piyasalar\u0131, Eyl\u00fcl\u2019e kadar ECB faiz art\u0131r\u0131m olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %80\u2019in \u00fczerinde g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; bu da Euro lehine getirilerde destekleyici bir spread yarat\u0131yor. ABD istihdam raporunun so\u011fuyan bir i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131 teyit etmesi halinde, bu ayr\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 Euro\u2019da bull call spread stratejileriyle de\u011ferlendirmek g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc risk-getiri oranlar\u0131 sunabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" EUR\/USD 1,1500\u2019de s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131, Ortado\u011fu risk primi dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Cuma ABD istihdam\u0131 kritik: d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck IV f\u0131rsat yarat\u0131yor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f\u0131 petrol\u00fc 85$+ itip Euro\u2019yu bask\u0131layabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49985,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52320","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t