Reuters\u2019a g\u00f6re \u0130ran devlet televizyonu, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Dini Lideri\u2019nin dan\u0131\u015fman\u0131 General Muhsin R\u0131zai\u2019nin, Tahran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda ikinci bir koridor a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na izin vermeyece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi\u011fini aktard\u0131. R\u0131zai, bu ama\u00e7la su yoluna getirilecek herhangi bir sava\u015f gemisi veya askeri g\u00fcc\u00fcn \u0130ran taraf\u0131ndan hedef al\u0131naca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. R\u0131zai ayr\u0131ca ABD sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 durdurduktan sonra \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n iki g\u00fcn daha sald\u0131r\u0131lara devam etti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi ve bir Suudi yetkilinin \u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019na Riyad\u2019\u0131n Irak\u2019a y\u00f6nelik bir sald\u0131r\u0131ya dahil olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 iletti\u011fini ekledi. Ayr\u0131ca \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Ukrayna\u2019da \u00fc\u00e7 noktay\u0131 vurmak i\u00e7in haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ancak bir \u00f6z\u00fcr sonras\u0131 bu eylemi iptal etti\u011fini ifade etti.<\/p>\n
Piyasalarda West Texas Intermediate (WTI) %0,03 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 80,50 dolardan i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Daha geni\u015f \u00e7er\u00e7evede standart \u201crisk-on\u201d ve \u201crisk-off\u201d ayr\u0131m\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131: risk-on, y\u00fckselen hisseler, Alt\u0131n hari\u00e7 \u00e7o\u011fu emtiada art\u0131\u015f, emtia ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 \u00fclke para birimlerinde g\u00fc\u00e7lenme ve Kripto paralar\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fiyle ili\u015fkilendirilir. Risk-off ise Tahvillerin y\u00fckseli\u015fi, Alt\u0131n\u2019\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi ve ABD Dolar\u0131, Japon Yeni ve \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131 gibi g\u00fcvenli liman para birimlerine y\u00f6nelimle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131d\u0131r; risk-on ortam\u0131 ise Avustralya Dolar\u0131, Kanada Dolar\u0131 ve Yeni Zelanda Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra Ruble ve G\u00fcney Afrika Rand\u0131 gibi ikincil FX para birimlerini destekleyebilir.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlememiz gerekiyor; zira bu dar su yolu, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck petrol s\u0131v\u0131 t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sini ta\u015f\u0131yor. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ikinci bir koridor tesis etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan askeri g\u00fc\u00e7leri hedef alaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki tehdidi, ani bir arz kesintisi riskini ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc derecede art\u0131r\u0131yor. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar\u0131n k\u00fcresel enerji piyasalar\u0131nda ani ve sert fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekir.<\/p>\n
S\u0131n\u0131rs\u0131z sermaye riski almadan yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc volatiliteden faydalanmak i\u00e7in WTI ve Brent petrolde uzun al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (long call) veya y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc dikey spread\u2019lerin (bullish vertical spread) kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. WTI\u2019\u0131n h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda 80,50 dolar civar\u0131nda seyretmesi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Eyl\u00fcl 2026 vadeli ve kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 almak, jeopolitik t\u0131rman\u0131\u015ftan yararlanmak i\u00e7in y\u00fcksek kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 bir y\u00f6ntem sunar. Ayr\u0131ca petrol piyasalar\u0131nda \u00f6rt\u00fck volatilitenin y\u00fckselmesi muhtemel oldu\u011fundan, y\u00f6n konusunda emin olmayan ancak b\u00fcy\u00fck bir hareket bekleyen yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in uzun straddle stratejileri olduk\u00e7a cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
K\u00f6rfez\u2019de askeri gerilimin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 halinde g\u00fcvenli liman varl\u0131klar\u0131na do\u011fru keskin bir kayma bekliyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar Alt\u0131n\u2019da al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelmeyi ve ABD Dolar\u0131 ile \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131 gibi g\u00fcvenli liman para birimlerinde uzun t\u00fcrev pozisyonlar olu\u015fturmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeli. Tarihsel veriler, Ortado\u011fu\u2019da ge\u00e7mi\u015fte ya\u015fanan ani gerilim d\u00f6nemlerinde bu varl\u0131klar\u0131n Avustralya ve Kanada dolar\u0131 gibi emtia ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 para birimlerine k\u0131yasla istikrarl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde daha iyi performans sergiledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca, ani bir piyasa d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 hisse senedi riskini hedge ederek daha geni\u015f portf\u00f6ylerimizi korumam\u0131z gerekiyor. S&P 500 gibi maj\u00f6r endekslerde sat\u0131m opsiyonu (put) sat\u0131n almak, \u201crisk-off\u201d alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n k\u00fcresel finansal piyasalar\u0131 sard\u0131\u011f\u0131 senaryoda kay\u0131plar\u0131 dengelemeye yard\u0131mc\u0131 olur. Bu askeri restle\u015fme ilerledik\u00e7e uyum sa\u011flayabilmek i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli haftal\u0131k put\u2019lara odaklanmak bize esneklik sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019de tansiyon yeniden y\u00fckseliyor: \u0130ran, \u201cikinci koridor\u201d giri\u015fimini hedef alaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 duyurdu. WTI 80,50 dolarda yatay. Piyasalar risk-on\/risk-off ayr\u0131\u015f\u0131rken enerji volatilitesi, opsiyon ve g\u00fcvenli liman stratejilerini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50003,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52317","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t