NZD\/USD, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n istikrar kazanmas\u0131yla ge\u00e7en haftaki y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmekte zorlan\u0131rken Pazartesi 0,5870 civar\u0131nda yatay seyretti; kur 0,5800\u2019in alt\u0131ndan toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 0,5868 yak\u0131n\u0131ndayd\u0131. ABD ISM \u0130malat PMI temmuzda 53,3\u2019ten 55,6\u2019ya y\u00fckselerek 54,0 beklentisini a\u015ft\u0131 ve bu hareket Hazine tahvili getirilerini destekledi. Di\u011fer tarafta, Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran ile g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri do\u011frulamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ham petrol geriledi; bu durum daha geni\u015f risk ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 iyile\u015ftirerek Yeni Zelanda Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Avustralya para birimine k\u0131yasla daha iyi tutunmas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 oldu.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 Yeni Zelanda\u2019n\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyrek istihdam verilerinde: i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n %5,3\u2019ten %5,4\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi, istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ise %0,2\u2019den %0,1 QoQ\u2019a gerilemesi bekleniyor; \u00f6nceki i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131l\u0131m oran\u0131 %70,4\u2019t\u00fc. \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc Maliyet Endeksi de yak\u0131ndan izleniyor; \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n %0,5\u2019ten %0,6 QoQ\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u00c7in, belirleyici bir fakt\u00f6r olmaya devam ediyor; RatingDog Hizmet PMI\u2019\u0131n 54,1\u2019den 53,7\u2019ye gerilemesi bekleniyor. Teknik olarak NZD\/USD, 0,5858\u2019deki 20 periyotluk SMA ile 0,5818\u2019deki 100 periyotluk SMA\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerinde; 0,5874 ve 0,5888 diren\u00e7leri sonras\u0131nda 0,5930 ve 0,5965 g\u00fcndeme geliyor. Destekler 0,5859, 0,5849 ve 0,5818\u2019de bulunurken RSI (14) yakla\u015f\u0131k 59 seviyesinde.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, NZD\/USD paritesinin kritik 0,5870 seviyesi yak\u0131n\u0131nda konsolide olmas\u0131 nedeniyle artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Fiyat\u0131n 0,5858\u2019deki 20 periyotluk hareketli ortalama ile 0,5874\u2019teki ilk diren\u00e7 aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu tabloda, k\u0131sa vadeli straddle stratejileri h\u0131zl\u0131 kazan\u00e7 f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 sunabilir. Bu dar teknik bant, piyasan\u0131n bu haftan\u0131n yo\u011fun makroekonomik verilerini sindirmesinin ard\u0131ndan bir k\u0131r\u0131lman\u0131n yak\u0131n oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Temmuzda 55,6\u2019ya s\u0131\u00e7rayan ve beklentileri a\u015fan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD ISM \u0130malat PMI, ABD ekonomisinin y\u00fcksek dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 korudu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n kiwi\u2019yi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmesi riskine kar\u015f\u0131, NZD\/USD put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Tarihsel olarak bu kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD imalat geni\u015flemeleri, kal\u0131c\u0131 dolar g\u00fcc\u00fcne yol a\u00e7abildi\u011finden, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc koruma \u00f6ncelik kazan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u0130\u015fsizli\u011fin %5,4\u2019e s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckselmesinin beklendi\u011fi yakla\u015fan Yeni Zelanda istihdam raporu, opsiyon fiyatlamas\u0131 i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir belirleyici olacak. \u00dccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n %0,6 tahmininin \u00fczerine gelecek \u201cs\u0131cak\u201d bir veri, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n patikas\u0131n\u0131 daha karma\u015f\u0131k hale getirerek iki y\u00f6nl\u00fc sert hareketleri tetikleyebilir. Bu olay\u0131 y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in, daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 maliyeti sunarken faiz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcnde ani de\u011fi\u015fimlere kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayan knock-out opsiyonlar\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00f6nerilebilir.<\/p>\n
Son olarak, \u00c7in\u2019de yava\u015flayan hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fc izlemek gerekiyor; yakla\u015fan PMI\u2019\u0131n 53,7\u2019ye d\u00fc\u015fmesi bekleniyor. Yeni Zelanda emtia ihracat\u0131nda \u00c7in talebine y\u00fcksek \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 oldu\u011fundan, burada ya\u015fanacak olas\u0131 bir hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 kiwi\u2019yi zay\u0131flatacakt\u0131r. Bu riski i\u015flemeye y\u00f6nelik olarak, Yeni Zelanda dolar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6reli zay\u0131f performans\u0131ndan yararlanmak amac\u0131yla AUD\/NZD call opsiyonlar\u0131nda uzun pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131 tavsiye ediliyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Kiwi\u2019de k\u0131r\u0131lma kap\u0131da! NZD\/USD 0,5870\u2019te s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131rken g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD ISM PMI dolar\u0131 destekliyor. G\u00f6zler NZ istihdam\/\u00fccret verilerinde; \u00c7in PMI zay\u0131flarsa a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 risk. Straddle, put ve AUD\/NZD call \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50209,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52313","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t