{"id":52312,"date":"2026-08-04T03:22:21","date_gmt":"2026-08-04T03:22:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/abd-iran-gorusmelerine-dair-umutlarin-risk-primini-dusurmesiyle-petrol-geriledi-abd-fabrika-gostergesinin-beklentileri-asmasiyla-dolar-guclendi\/"},"modified":"2026-08-04T03:22:21","modified_gmt":"2026-08-04T03:22:21","slug":"abd-iran-gorusmelerine-dair-umutlarin-risk-primini-dusurmesiyle-petrol-geriledi-abd-fabrika-gostergesinin-beklentileri-asmasiyla-dolar-guclendi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/abd-iran-gorusmelerine-dair-umutlarin-risk-primini-dusurmesiyle-petrol-geriledi-abd-fabrika-gostergesinin-beklentileri-asmasiyla-dolar-guclendi\/","title":{"rendered":"ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerine dair umutlar\u0131n risk primini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesiyle petrol geriledi; ABD fabrika g\u00f6stergesinin beklentileri a\u015fmas\u0131yla dolar g\u00fc\u00e7lendi"},"content":{"rendered":"

Petrol, piyasalar\u0131n ABD\u2013\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin yeniden ba\u015flayabilece\u011fini fiyatlamas\u0131yla geriledi. Bu hareket, Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n Tahran\u2019\u0131n do\u011frudan m\u00fczakere plan\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemesinin ard\u0131ndan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne dair yorumunu takip etti. Dolar Endeksi (DXY), ISM imalat PMI\u2019\u0131n temmuzda 53,3\u2019ten 55,6\u2019ya y\u00fckselerek 54\u2019l\u00fck beklentiyi a\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 100,00 seviyesinin hemen alt\u0131nda, 99,90 civar\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,1 artt\u0131. Yeni sipari\u015fler 56,7\u2019ye y\u00fckselirken, \u00f6denen fiyatlar endeksi 73\u2019ten 71,1\u2019e geriledi. G10 FX\u2019te EUR\/USD yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,2 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 1,1510\u2019a, GBP\/USD yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,4 kay\u0131pla 1,3430\u2019a indi; USD\/JPY yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,4 gerileyerek 156,90\u2019a d\u00fc\u015ferken AUD\/USD yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,5 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 0,6990\u2019a geriledi. WTI yakla\u015f\u0131k %7,4 d\u00fc\u015ferek varil ba\u015f\u0131na 78 dolar civar\u0131na inerken, alt\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,2 y\u00fckselerek ons ba\u015f\u0131na 4.052 dolar civar\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve 4.000 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde tutundu.<\/p>\n\n

Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fcn\u00fcn oda\u011f\u0131 Asya-Pasifik verilerine kay\u0131yor: Yeni Zelanda\u2019da 2\u00c7 i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 %5,3\u2019ten %5,4\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi beklenirken, istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 %0,2\u2019den %0,1\u2019e ve i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc maliyet endeksi \u00e7eyreklik bazda %0,6\u2019ya i\u015faret ediyor. Avustralya\u2019da nihai S&P Global hizmet PMI\u2019\u0131n 53 ve bile\u015fik endeksin 52,6 gelmesi, ayr\u0131ca AiG sanayi endeksinin a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Japonya\u2019da nakit \u00fccret kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n haziranda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,2\u2019den %3,4\u2019e h\u0131zlanaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, BoJ haziran toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131n\u0131 yay\u0131mlayacak. \u00c7in\u2019de RatingDog hizmet PMI\u2019\u0131n 54,1\u2019den 53,7\u2019ye gerilemesi bekleniyor. Kanada\u2019da S&P Global imalat PMI\u2019\u0131n 53\u2019ten sonra 50,2\u2019ye inmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, ABD\u2019de fabrika sipari\u015flerinin haziranda bir \u00f6nceki ayki %1,3 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan ayl\u0131k %0,2 artmas\u0131; JOLTS a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ise 7,594 milyondan 7,45 milyona gerilemesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n\n

Emtialar ve G\u00fcvenli Liman Varl\u0131klar\u0131 i\u00e7in Opsiyon Stratejileri<\/h3>\n\n

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) \u00fczerinde bear put spread kullanarak petrolde s\u00fcren a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n riskine kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. D\u00fcnk\u00fc varil ba\u015f\u0131na 78 dolara sert %7,4\u2019l\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, jeopolitik risk primlerinin ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclebilece\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi; bu, ge\u00e7mi\u015fte arz fazlas\u0131 endi\u015feleri s\u0131ras\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen b\u00fcy\u00fck tek g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015fleri an\u0131msat\u0131yor. Washington ve Tahran\u2019\u0131n m\u00fczakerelere i\u015faret etmesiyle, z\u0131mni volatilitenin y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz; bu da s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskli opsiyon yap\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6zellikle cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n

ABD dolar\u0131ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeye ra\u011fmen, alt\u0131n\u0131n 4.052 dolarl\u0131k tarihi seviye \u00fczerinde konsolide olmas\u0131n\u0131 dikkate alarak alt\u0131n taraf\u0131nda uzun vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n korunmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin (DXY) 99,90 civar\u0131nda y\u00fckselmesine ra\u011fmen alt\u0131n\u0131n diren\u00e7li kalmas\u0131, tarihsel olarak uzun soluklu y\u00fckseli\u015flerin \u00f6ncesinde g\u00f6r\u00fclen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc savunma ama\u00e7l\u0131 talebe i\u015faret ediyor. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f k\u00fcresel bankac\u0131l\u0131k streslerinde merkez bankalar\u0131 rekor 1.037 ton alt\u0131n ald\u0131; kurumsal i\u015ftah\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi, jeopolitik kaynakl\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmelerin al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirilmesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n

Maj\u00f6r FX ve Emtia Para Birimleri i\u00e7in \u0130\u015flem Taktikleri<\/h3>\n\n

USD\/JPY paritesinde, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) \u015fahin duru\u015fundan faydalanmak ad\u0131na put opsiyonlar\u0131yla a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filimle i\u015flem yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Paritenin dolarla birlikte y\u00fckseli\u015f \u00fcretememesi, piyasada 2024\u2019teki 9,8 trilyon yen (62 milyar dolar) tutar\u0131ndaki tarihi savunma operasyonuna benzer yeni bir do\u011frudan m\u00fcdahale endi\u015fesinin \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Japonya\u2019da \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,4\u2019e h\u0131zlanaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle, ek parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma pariteyi 156,90 seviyesinin belirgin bi\u00e7imde alt\u0131na itebilir.<\/p>\n\n

Avrupa maj\u00f6rlerinde, GBP\/USD\u2019de y\u00fckseli\u015flerin sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirilmesini; EUR\/USD\u2019de ise 1,1500 \u00fczerinde n\u00f6trden iyimser yap\u0131lar korunmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Sterlin\/dolar\u0131n 1,3430\u2019a %0,4 gerilemesi, \u00f6zellikle \u0130ngiltere taraf\u0131nda BoE\u2019nin son \u015fahin tonunu destekleyecek yerel kataliz\u00f6rler s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yken, toparlanan dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, Euro\u2019nun 1,1510 seviyesini istikrarl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde korumas\u0131, kurumsal al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n bu kritik destek b\u00f6lgesini aktif bi\u00e7imde savundu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n

Yakla\u015fan Okyanusya istihdam verileri \u00f6ncesinde Avustralya ve Yeni Zelanda dolarlar\u0131nda put opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. AUD\/USD, kritik 0,7000 e\u015fi\u011finin yeniden alt\u0131na sarkarken, Yeni Zelanda\u2019da i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n %5,4\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi bekleniyor. Tarihsel olarak bu b\u00f6lgedeki zay\u0131flayan i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasalar\u0131, merkez bankalar\u0131nda h\u0131zl\u0131 g\u00fcvercinle\u015fme sinyallerini tetikliyor; bu durum emtia para birimlerindeki mevcut geri \u00e7ekilmeyi h\u0131zland\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Petrolde sert sat\u0131\u015f: ABD\u2013\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme ihtimali WTI\u2019\u0131 %7,4 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcp 78 dolara indirdi. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ISM\u2019le DXY 99,9\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; G10 geriledi. Alt\u0131n 4.052\u2019de diren\u00e7li. Opsiyon: WTI bear put, alt\u0131n call, USD\/JPY put; AUD\/NZD put.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49979,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52312","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t