Frank E. Holmes, alt\u0131n talebinin Bat\u0131\u2019daki bir \u201ckorku i\u015flemi\u201d ile Asya \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki bir \u201ca\u015fk i\u015flemi\u201d dinami\u011fini yans\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131; k\u00fcresel al\u0131mlar\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %60\u2019\u0131n\u0131n Asya ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da ta\u015f\u0131nabilir aile servetiyle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. K\u00fcl\u00e7eye y\u00f6nelik deste\u011fi, 350 trilyon dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeki k\u00fcresel bor\u00e7 stoku ve MMT tarz\u0131 maliye politikas\u0131yla; ayr\u0131ca \u00c7in\u2019in Ku\u015fak ve Yol giri\u015fiminin kapsam\u0131 ve BRICS etkisiyle ili\u015fkilendirdi. Holmes, BM \u00fcyesi \u00fclkelerin yakla\u015f\u0131k %75\u2019inin Ku\u015fak ve Yol kredileri \u00fczerinden \u00c7in\u2019le finansal ba\u011flar\u0131 bulundu\u011fu y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki bir iddiaya at\u0131f yapt\u0131. Yakla\u015f\u0131k 30 y\u0131l\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Japonya\u2019n\u0131n s\u0131f\u0131ra yak\u0131n faiz politikas\u0131ndan uzakla\u015fmas\u0131na da dikkat \u00e7ekerek, varl\u0131k s\u0131n\u0131flar\u0131 genelinde sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 zorlayabilen carry trade \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmelerini anlatt\u0131; Japonya borcunun neredeyse yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ise yurti\u00e7inde Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan tutuldu\u011funu vurgulad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Holmes, yapay zek\u00e2ya y\u00f6nelik sermaye harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 (capex) sanayi metalleri i\u00e7in bir talep sinyali olarak g\u00f6sterdi; Meta\u2019n\u0131n El Paso\u2019da planlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 14 milyar dolarl\u0131k veri merkezinin enerji ihtiyac\u0131 i\u00e7in yakla\u015f\u0131k 50 bin ton bak\u0131r gerektirdi\u011fini ve BlackRock\u2019un egemen varl\u0131k fonlar\u0131 destekli yakla\u015f\u0131k 10 milyar dolarl\u0131k yapay zek\u00e2 altyap\u0131s\u0131 hamlesini \u00f6rnek verdi. Nicel \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na g\u00f6re g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f, marj art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde trendin yakla\u015f\u0131k alt\u0131 standart sapma \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karken; alt\u0131n, yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7 standart sapma \u00fczeri seviyelerden trendin yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,6 standart sapma alt\u0131na geriledi; \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 60 i\u015flem g\u00fcn\u00fcnde alt\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %85 olarak ifade etti. Di\u011fer veriler aras\u0131nda \u00f6nerilen %10 alt\u0131n-g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f tahsisi, piyasa de\u011ferine g\u00f6re (mark-to-market) bir senaryoda ons ba\u015f\u0131na 40 bin dolar imas\u0131, y\u00fck gemilerinin emtialar\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %80\u2019ini ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131, TSA (ABD havaliman\u0131 g\u00fcvenlik kontrol\u00fc) hacminin 2020\u2019de g\u00fcnde yakla\u015f\u0131k 85 binden 3 milyona y\u00fckseldi\u011fi ve savunma modernizasyonu ile yapay zek\u00e2 i\u00e7in yakla\u015f\u0131k 2,5 trilyon dolarl\u0131k bir tahmin yer ald\u0131.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapanlar\u0131n, son haftalarda alt\u0131n ve g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015fte anlaml\u0131 bir yukar\u0131 hareket i\u00e7in haz\u0131rl\u0131k yapmas\u0131; yak\u0131n d\u00f6nemdeki yatay seyrin ise \u00f6nemli bir al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirilmesi gerekti\u011fine inan\u0131yoruz. Nicel modeller, alt\u0131n istatistiksel trendinin alt\u0131na indi\u011finde, sonraki 60 i\u015flem g\u00fcn\u00fc i\u00e7inde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir fiyat toparlanmas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %85 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, fiziksel taleple de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde destekleniyor; zira k\u00fcresel merkez bankalar\u0131, ABD dolar\u0131na ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 azaltmak i\u00e7in y\u0131ll\u0131k 1.000 tonun \u00fczerinde alt\u0131n al\u0131m\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi.<\/p>\n
Bu ortamda, Japon yeni carry trade\u2019inin devam eden \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesiyle ili\u015fkili riskleri dikkatle y\u00f6netmemiz gerekiyor. Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 tarihsel d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerden faizleri art\u0131rmaya devam ederken, k\u00fcresel yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar marj \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131lamak i\u00e7in alt\u0131n d\u00e2hil k\u00e2rl\u0131 varl\u0131klar\u0131 nakde \u00e7evirmek zorunda kalabiliyor. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, bu ge\u00e7ici ve likidite kaynakl\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmelerde stop olma riskini azaltmak i\u00e7in y\u00fcksek kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 vadeli kontratlar yerine uzun alt\u0131n al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 kullanmas\u0131 uygun olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
K\u0131ymetli metallerin \u00f6tesinde, bak\u0131r gibi sanayi emtialar\u0131nda, yapay zek\u00e2 altyap\u0131s\u0131na y\u00f6nelik devasa harcamalar\u0131n besledi\u011fi dikkat \u00e7ekici bir g\u00fc\u00e7lenme g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Teknoloji devleri, b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli yapay zek\u00e2 veri merkezleri in\u015fa etmek i\u00e7in onlarca milyar dolarl\u0131k taahh\u00fctlere giriyor; tek bir tesisin, g\u00fc\u00e7 ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131lamak i\u00e7in 50 bin tona kadar bak\u0131r gerektirebildi\u011fi belirtiliyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki bir ay i\u00e7inde bak\u0131r call opsiyonlar\u0131nda ya da bo\u011fa call spread stratejilerinde pozisyon b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn do\u011fru ayarlanmas\u0131, bu uzun vadeli sanayi s\u00fcper d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcnden faydalanmam\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
K\u00fcresel bor\u00e7 315 trilyon dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015fken, h\u00fck\u00fcmetler sert bir ekonomik yava\u015flaman\u0131n ilk i\u015faretinde ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz olarak yeniden parasal geni\u015flemeye ve para bas\u0131m\u0131na y\u00f6nelecektir. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz enflasyonist dalgan\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcnde kalmak i\u00e7in 60-90 g\u00fcn vadeli alt\u0131n ve g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f t\u00fcrevlerinin kademeli olarak biriktirilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Tan\u0131ml\u0131 risk i\u00e7eren opsiyon stratejilerine odaklanarak, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ve yap\u0131sal bir bo\u011fa piyasas\u0131ndan kald\u0131ra\u00e7 etkisiyle yararlan\u0131rken, sermayemizi k\u0131sa vadeli piyasa g\u00fcr\u00fclt\u00fcs\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 koruyabiliriz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alt\u0131nda hik\u00e2ye b\u00fcy\u00fcyor: Bat\u0131\u2019da \u201ckorku\u201d, Asya\u2019da \u201ca\u015fk\u201d al\u0131m\u0131. 350+ trilyon $ bor\u00e7, \u00c7in\/BRICS etkisi, BOJ carry \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesi risk. Model: 60 g\u00fcnde %85 y\u00fckseli\u015f; AI capex bak\u0131r talebini patlat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50174,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52309","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t