Meksika pesosu, risk i\u015ftah\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n carry-trade talebini desteklemesiyle pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7lendi; USD\/MXN 17,32 seviyesine gerileyerek %0,14 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Meksika\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6nc\u00fc ikinci \u00e7eyrek GSYH\u2019si, 2026\u2019n\u0131n 1. \u00e7eyre\u011findeki %-0,6\u2019l\u0131k daralman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u00e7eyreklik bazda %1,5 artt\u0131. Yak\u0131n vadeli takvim sakin: Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc T\u00fcketici G\u00fcveni, per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc ise Banxico\u2019nun faiz karar\u0131 izlenecek. Prime Terminal, faizin %88 olas\u0131l\u0131kla %6,50\u2019de sabit b\u0131rak\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, %12 olas\u0131l\u0131kla ise art\u0131\u015f yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
Banxico\u2019nun \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r ekonomistleri anketi, daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enflasyon beklentileri ve bir miktar daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerine i\u015faret etti: man\u015fet enflasyon 2026 i\u00e7in hazirandaki %4,2\u2019ye k\u0131yasla %4 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun %4,18\u2019den %4\u2019e gerilemesi bekleniyor; GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin %1,10\u2019dan %1,20\u2019ye y\u00fckselmesi ve USD\/MXN kurunun 17,88\u2019e gelmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. ABD\u2019de temmuz ISM \u0130malat PMI 53,3\u2019ten 55,6\u2019ya y\u00fckselerek 54 seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; hafta boyunca ADP istihdam de\u011fi\u015fimi, a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131, i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 ve cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verisi takip edilecek. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde spot 17,3198 ile 17,4158\u2019deki SMA k\u00fcmesinin alt\u0131nda; diren\u00e7 seviyeleri 17,5456, 18,1200 ve 18,1651\u2019den gelen al\u00e7alan trend \u00e7izgisi olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karken RSI (14) 42,24 seviyesinde.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda Meksika pesosunun ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki s\u00fcregelen g\u00fcc\u00fcnden faydalanacak \u015fekilde pozisyonlanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Meksika ekonomisinin 2026\u2019n\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde \u00e7eyreklik bazda %1,5 ile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir toparlanma sergilemesi, \u00fclkenin makro zemininin daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir pesoyu belirgin bi\u00e7imde destekledi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu momentumdan yararlanmak isteyen yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak USD\/MXN\u2019de k\u0131sa y\u00f6nl\u00fc (short) t\u00fcrev stratejilerine odaklanmas\u0131n\u0131n uygun olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Meksika Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Banxico) bu per\u015fembe faizleri %6,50\u2019de sabit tutma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131, cazip faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n pesoyu carry-trade a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde desteklemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesine neden olacakt\u0131r. Tarihsel olarak, getiri avantaj\u0131n\u0131n istikrarl\u0131 seyretti\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde Meksika pesosu, k\u00fcresel jeopolitik gerilimlerin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 zamanlarda bile di\u011fer geli\u015fen \u00fclke para birimlerine k\u0131yasla daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc performans g\u00f6sterebilmi\u015ftir. 17,00 civar\u0131ndaki kritik destek seviyesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivmeyi yakalamak i\u00e7in USD\/MXN\u2019de k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Teknik tarafta USD\/MXN paritesi, 17,4158\u2019deki basit hareketli ortalama (SMA) k\u00fcmesinin belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rerek g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kal\u0131yor. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, d\u00fczenli prim geliri elde etmek amac\u0131yla 17,5456\u2019daki al\u00e7alan trend \u00e7izgisi direncinin \u00fczerinde, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 satabilir. Bu yap\u0131, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc d\u00fczeltmelerin s\u00f6z konusu teknik bariyerlerle s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fimiz i\u00e7in y\u00fcksek olas\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 bir kurulum sunuyor.<\/p>\n\n
\u00d6te yandan cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam (NFP) verisi ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere yakla\u015fan ABD istihdam verileri yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli; zira kurda k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli oynakl\u0131k yaratabilir. Temmuz PMI\u2019\u0131n 55,6\u2019ya y\u00fckselmesiyle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD imalat aktivitesi, s\u00fcren jeopolitik endi\u015felere ra\u011fmen ABD ekonomisinin dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 korudu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Olas\u0131 ani ABD dolar\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in, k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli, koruyucu ve paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) USD\/MXN al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131yla e\u015fle\u015ftirilmesini tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Carry-trade r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131 peso lehine: USD\/MXN 17,32\u2019ye gerilerken GSYH %1,5 toparland\u0131. Piyasa Banxico\u2019nun %6,50\u2019de kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor; t\u00fcrevde short USD\/MXN, put al\u0131m\u0131 ve OTM call korumas\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49961,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52305","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t