Alt\u0131n, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131nda ABD ve Japon otoritelerin m\u00fcdahale etti\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki haberlerin ard\u0131ndan bir bu\u00e7uk ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerinden toparlanmas\u0131 ve bunun Japon Yeni\u2019ni g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmesiyle Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc geriledi. XAU\/USD 4.037 dolardan i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken %0,12 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kaydetti. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019a g\u00f6re \u0130ran ve di\u011fer b\u00f6lge \u00fclkelerinin talep etti\u011fi \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalara ara verilmesinin ard\u0131ndan dikkat ABD verilerinden Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki geli\u015fmelere kayd\u0131. ABD Donanmas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ablukas\u0131n\u0131n, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer silah bulundurmama ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k tutma d\u00e2hil \u015fartlar\u0131 kabul edene kadar s\u00fcrmesi bekleniyor; Ba\u015fkan ayr\u0131ca \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019den ge\u00e7i\u015f i\u00e7in \u00fccret talep etmesine izin vermeyece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
ABD makro verileri piyasalar\u0131 yine de hareketlendirdi: Temmuz ISM \u0130malat PMI 53,3\u2019ten 55,6\u2019ya y\u00fckselerek 54 beklentisini a\u015ft\u0131 ve d\u00f6rt y\u0131l\u0131n en h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 kaydetti; istihdam alt endeksi 2023\u2019ten bu yana ilk kez y\u00fckselirken, \u00f6denen fiyatlar (prices paid) girdi maliyetlerinin y\u00fcksek seyretti\u011fine i\u015faret etti. D\u00fc\u015fen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 daha az \u015fahin bir Fed beklentisini beslerken, piyasalar 2026 sonuna kadar 22 baz puanl\u0131k s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma fiyatl\u0131yor; ancak son toplant\u0131da \u00fc\u00e7 politika yap\u0131c\u0131 enflasyonu %2 hedefi civar\u0131nda tutmak i\u00e7in 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde muhalefet \u015ferhi koydu. Teknik tarafta alt\u0131n, ge\u00e7en hafta ortas\u0131ndan bu yana 4.100 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; RSI 50\u2019nin alt\u0131nda. \u0130zlenen seviyeler: destek 4.022 dolar, ard\u0131ndan 4.000 ve 3.959; diren\u00e7 4.100, 4.165, 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n bulundu\u011fu 4.185 civar\u0131 ve 4.202. Merkez bankalar\u0131 2022\u2019de yakla\u015f\u0131k 70 milyar dolar de\u011ferinde 1.136 ton alt\u0131n ekleyerek y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda rekor al\u0131m yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, XAU\/USD\u2019nin 4.037 dolar civar\u0131nda 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalamas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131nda seyretmesi nedeniyle alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde yak\u0131n vadeli a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131ya haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI) 50-n\u00f6tr seviyesinin alt\u0131nda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 e\u011filimli; bu da y\u00fckseli\u015f momentumunun zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. 4.022 dolardaki kritik destek seviyesini hedefleyen k\u0131sa pozisyonlar veya sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (put) kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131, ayr\u0131ca psikolojik 4.000 dolar e\u015fi\u011finin yak\u0131ndan izlenmesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f senaryosu, son ABD ISM \u0130malat PMI verisinin 55,6 ile d\u00f6rt y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesine s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 ve ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 desteklemesiyle g\u00fc\u00e7 kazan\u0131yor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki ABD Donanmas\u0131 ablukas\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 jeopolitik gerilimler ani \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131 yaratabilse de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ekonomik veriler Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015funu canl\u0131 tutuyor. Bu haftaki tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam ve ADP istihdam raporlar\u0131n\u0131n yak\u0131ndan izlenmesini \u00f6neriyoruz; zira bir sonraki b\u00fcy\u00fck kur hareketini belirleme olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 y\u00fcksek.<\/p>\n
Bu stratejiyi desteklemek \u00fczere, tarihsel veriler CME alt\u0131n opsiyon i\u015flem hacimlerinin, kurumsal oyuncular\u0131n portf\u00f6ylerini hedge etti\u011fi yo\u011fun ABD istihdam haftalar\u0131nda genellikle %25\u2019ten fazla artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Ayr\u0131ca D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi\u2019ne g\u00f6re son y\u0131llarda y\u0131ll\u0131k 1.000 tonun \u00fczerinde seyreden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc merkez bankas\u0131 talebine ra\u011fmen, y\u00fckselen tahvil getirileri alt\u0131n\u0131n yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyelini s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya devam ediyor. Jeopolitik kaynakl\u0131 ani bozulmalarda k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in 4.100 dolar direncinin hemen \u00fczerinde s\u0131k\u0131 al\u0131m-durdur (buy-stop) emirleri belirlenmesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Alt\u0131nda sert uyar\u0131: G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ISM ve Yen etkisiyle XAU\/USD 4.037\u2019de geriliyor. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm zay\u0131f; 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA alt\u0131nda. 4.022-4.000 destek, 4.100 diren\u00e7; istihdam verileri kritik.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50132,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52302","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t