ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY), Japon Yeni\u2019ni (JPY) desteklemek amac\u0131yla Washington ve Tokyo\u2019nun ortak m\u00fcdahalesini izleyen ge\u00e7en haftaki sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, ABD imalat verilerindeki toparlanma ve ABD-\u0130ran temaslar\u0131na ili\u015fkin yeniden artan belirsizlikten destek bularak pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc 100 seviyesine do\u011fru yeniden y\u00fckseldi. Yaz\u0131n\u0131n kaleme al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131rada DXY 100 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; g\u00fcn i\u00e7i dip olan 99,42 seviyesinden toparland\u0131. Bu seviye, 15 Haziran\u2019dan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00fczeydi. Endeks haftaya bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131; ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik planlanan bir sald\u0131r\u0131y\u0131 iptal etti\u011fini ve g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc ba\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fini s\u00f6ylemi\u015fti. Ancak \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n herhangi bir m\u00fczakereyi reddetmesiyle risk alg\u0131s\u0131 yeniden de\u011fi\u015fti.<\/p>\n\n
Trump daha sonraki a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131nda \u0130ran liderli\u011fini \u201cikiy\u00fczl\u00fc\u201d olmakla su\u00e7lad\u0131, ABD Donanmas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 kontrol etti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi ve \u0130ran anla\u015fmay\u0131 kabul edene kadar ya da teslim olana kadar ablukan\u0131n s\u00fcrece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu. Ayr\u0131 tarafta, ABD ISM \u0130malat PMI temmuzda 55,6\u2019ya y\u00fckselerek hazirandaki 53,3 seviyesinden artt\u0131; 54 beklentisini a\u015ft\u0131 ve May\u0131s 2022\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek de\u011feri kaydetti. G\u00f6zler \u015fimdi bu haftaki ABD i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 verileri ve eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 politika g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne \u00e7evriliyor. CME FedWatch Tool\u2019a g\u00f6re piyasalar yakla\u015f\u0131k %60 oran\u0131nda bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini fiyatl\u0131yor; Brown Brothers Harriman ise DXY\u2019nin 96,00\u2013100,00 band\u0131na geri \u00e7ekilebilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi kritik 100 e\u015fi\u011fi \u00e7evresinde seyrederken, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda t\u00fcrev i\u015flemcilerin y\u00f6n bahsinden ziyade oynakl\u0131k odakl\u0131 stratejilere a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k vermesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Son ABD-Japonya ortak m\u00fcdahalesinin Yeni desteklemesiyle USD\/JPY opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k y\u00fcksek kal\u0131yor; bu da bant i\u00e7inde i\u015flem yapanlar i\u00e7in prim sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Tarihsel olarak koordineli kur m\u00fcdahaleleri k\u0131sa vadede %2 ile %4 aras\u0131nda dalgalanmalara yol a\u00e7ar; bu nedenle piyasa politika kaynakl\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 test ederken sert ve \u00e7ift y\u00f6nl\u00fc tasfiyelere kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyonlanmak gerekir.<\/p>\n\n
G\u00fcnl\u00fck k\u00fcresel petrol s\u0131v\u0131 t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na ili\u015fkin s\u00f6ylemin sertle\u015fmesi, enerji ve kur t\u00fcrevlerini son derece hassas hale getiriyor. Ablukan\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 halinde enerji fiyatlar\u0131nda ani s\u0131\u00e7rama riskine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak amac\u0131yla Brent petrolde bo\u011fa al\u0131m spread\u2019lerinin (bull call spread) kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Ayr\u0131ca Washington-Tahran hatt\u0131ndaki jeopolitik gerilim artarken, k\u0131sa vadeli alt\u0131n al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (gold call) g\u00fcvenli liman temas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan daha istikrarl\u0131 bir oyun sunuyor.<\/p>\n\n
Piyasa eyl\u00fclde Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %60 seviyesinde fiyatlarken, de\u011fi\u015fen politika beklentisini i\u015flemede k\u0131sa vadeli faiz vadeli kontratlar\u0131n\u0131n yak\u0131ndan izlenmesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. 55,6\u2019ya \u00e7\u0131kan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc temmuz ISM \u0130malat PMI verisi, ABD ekonomisinin olduk\u00e7a diren\u00e7li kald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor; bu da merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131 daha \u015fahin bir \u00e7izgiye zorlayabilir. Yakla\u015fan istihdam verileri bu ekonomik g\u00fcc\u00fc teyit ederse, faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zla %80\u2019e do\u011fru yeniden fiyatlanmas\u0131n\u0131 bekleriz; bu senaryoda Hazine tahvili vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda (Treasury futures) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar olduk\u00e7a cazip hale gelebilir.<\/p>\n\n
Baz\u0131 stratejistlerin DXY\u2019nin 96,00 ile 100,00 band\u0131nda konsolide olaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, iron condor gibi bant stratejilerine dayal\u0131 opsiyon kurgular\u0131 \u015fu a\u015famada \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Ani g\u00fcvenli liman ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n tetikleyebilece\u011fi ge\u00e7ici s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131 hesaba katmak i\u00e7in \u00fcst band\u0131n 100,50\u2019nin biraz \u00fczerine konumland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, prim erimesinden (time decay) faydalan\u0131rken, duyarl\u0131l\u0131k kaynakl\u0131 ani k\u0131r\u0131lmalara kar\u015f\u0131 sermayeyi daha iyi korur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" DXY, Japonya m\u00fcdahalesi sonras\u0131 sat\u0131\u015ftan toparlan\u0131p 100\u2019e dayand\u0131: ISM 55,6 s\u00fcrprizi ve \u0130ran belirsizli\u011fi dolar\u0131 destekliyor. Piyasa Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de %60 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor; opsiyonlarda bant\/oynakl\u0131k stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50005,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52301","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t