Sterlin Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc zay\u0131flad\u0131; GBP\/USD g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde 1,3506 zirvesini g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 1,3439 seviyesinde yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,27 geriledi. ABD Dolar\u0131 daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretti; Temmuz ay\u0131 ISM \u0130malat PMI 53,3\u2019ten 55,6\u2019ya y\u00fckselerek 54 beklentisini a\u015ft\u0131. \u0130stihdam alt kalemi 2023\u2019ten bu yana ilk kez geni\u015flemeye d\u00f6nerken, \u00f6denen fiyatlar alt endeksi girdi maliyetlerinin y\u00fcksek seyretti\u011fine i\u015faret etti. Dolar endeksi (DXY) %0,14 art\u0131\u015fla 99,94\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Japon ve ABD yetkililerine g\u00f6re bu hareket, Japon yeni (JPY) desteklemek amac\u0131yla iki g\u00fcn s\u00fcren d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalesinin ard\u0131ndan geldi.<\/p>\n\n
Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta g\u00fcndeme maliye politikas\u0131 damga vurdu. Hazine Bakan\u0131 John Healey, Ba\u015fbakan Andy Burnham liderli\u011findeki yeni h\u00fck\u00fcmetin se\u00e7im \u00f6ncesi harcama taahh\u00fctlerini yerine getirmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemde, bakanlar\u0131 birim b\u00fct\u00e7elerinde kesintiye gitmeye \u00e7a\u011f\u0131rd\u0131. Jeopolitik risklerde de y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015fimi g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc; Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 durdurdu. CBS News, \u201cyeni\u201d bir m\u00fczakere planlanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin arabulucular \u00fczerinden s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc bildirdi. Petrol geriledi; WTI %8,40\u2019tan fazla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle varil ba\u015f\u0131na 80 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na indi. Faiz beklentileri de yumu\u015fad\u0131: Fed i\u00e7in 22 baz puan s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) i\u00e7in y\u0131l sonuna kadar bir kez art\u0131r\u0131m fiyatlan\u0131yor. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde GBP\/USD 1,3363 civar\u0131ndaki SMA deste\u011finin \u00fczerinde 1,3428\u2019de bulunurken, RSI 54,5 seviyesindeydi; diren\u00e7ler 1,3449 ve 1,3551 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flemcilerin GBP\/USD\u2019de 1,3363 destek seviyesini yak\u0131ndan izlemesini \u00f6neriyoruz; zira 50-, 100- ve 200-g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamalar bu b\u00f6lgede kesi\u015fiyor. Beklentileri a\u015fan 55,6 seviyesindeki ABD ISM \u0130malat PMI sonras\u0131nda ABD Dolar\u0131 k\u0131sa vadede h\u0131zl\u0131 bir ivme kazand\u0131. Tarihsel olarak, ISM PMI\u2019\u0131n bu \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde beklenti \u00fcst\u00fc gelmesi durumunda Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin (DXY) y\u00fckseli\u015f momentumunu birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn boyunca koruma e\u011filiminde oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n
Ge\u00e7mi\u015f kur trendleri incelendi\u011finde, benzer makro s\u00fcrprizlerin Sterlin\u2019de iki haftal\u0131k pencerede s\u0131kl\u0131kla %1,2 ile %1,8 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda k\u0131sa vadeli bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc tetikledi\u011fi g\u00f6zleniyor. Bu olas\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmeden faydalanmak i\u00e7in, 1,3300 hedefli kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131na (strike) sahip GBP\/USD ay\u0131 put spread\u2019leri (bear put spread) kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu strateji riski s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131rken, paritenin kritik hareketli ortalama deste\u011finin alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131 halinde getiri potansiyeli sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n\n
WTI ham petrol\u00fcn %8,4 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sonras\u0131 varil ba\u015f\u0131na 80 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na inmesiyle emtia kaynakl\u0131 piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda dinamikler de\u011fi\u015fiyor. Bir ayl\u0131k GBP\/USD opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131k (implied volatility) halen g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck say\u0131labilecek %7,2 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; bu da opsiyon primlerini al\u0131c\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu nispeten ucuz primler, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k maliye politikas\u0131 risklerine kar\u015f\u0131 portf\u00f6y\u00fc korumak amac\u0131yla do\u011frudan put opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131yla de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n\n
RSI\u2019\u0131n 54,5 seviyesinde olmas\u0131, paritenin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgesinden uzak oldu\u011funa ve daha derin bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc d\u00fczeltme i\u00e7in alan bulundu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Ayr\u0131ca Fed\u2019in 22 baz puanl\u0131k s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma patikas\u0131nda fiyatlanmas\u0131, faiz fark\u0131n\u0131 yeniden Dolar lehine \u00e7eviriyor. 1,3449 diren\u00e7 trend \u00e7izgisi yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli; bu seviyenin \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m denemesinin ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olmas\u0131, k\u0131sa delta pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u00e7in sinyal olarak de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Sterlin darbe ald\u0131: G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD ISM PMI dolar endeksini yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131, GBP\/USD 1,3439\u2019a geriledi. Kritik destek 1,3363. Petrol \u00e7ak\u0131ld\u0131, BoE\/Fed beklentileri yumu\u015fad\u0131; opsiyonla korunma \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50018,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52293","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t