WTI, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc 78,45 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %7,76 geriledi. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 kapsayan olas\u0131 bir ABD-\u0130ran \u00e7er\u00e7evesine i\u015faret eden mesajlar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan jeopolitik risk priminin zay\u0131flamas\u0131 etkili oldu. G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin Pazartesi \u00f6\u011fleden sonra yap\u0131lmas\u0131 planlan\u0131rken, \u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ABD ile H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019\u00fcn yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin bir g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, Umman ile temaslar\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc belirtti.<\/p>\n
Arz taraf\u0131nda ise OPEC+, 2023\u2019te devreye al\u0131nan g\u00f6n\u00fcll\u00fc kesintilerin geri sar\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 tamamlayacak \u015fekilde, Eyl\u00fcl\u2019den itibaren \u00fcretim kotalar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 188 bin varil art\u0131rma konusunda Pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc anla\u015fmaya vard\u0131. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz \u00fczerinden ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen fiziki ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n \u2014Umman K\u00f6rfezi\u2019ndeki gemiden gemiye transferler dahil\u2014 son iki haftada 3\u20134,5 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn d\u00fczeyinde seyretti\u011fi ve bunun mevcut \u00fcretim seviyeleriyle uyumlu oldu\u011fu bildirildi. G\u00f6sterge fiyat hareketleri ise ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131: Brent %4,652 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 83,84 dolara, WTI %5,799 kay\u0131pla 79,76 dolara gerilerken; Umman ham petrol\u00fc %3,525 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 79,93 dolara indi. Dubai ham petrol\u00fc ise %1,8 art\u0131\u015fla 81,109 dolara y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
Bat\u0131 Teksas tipi (WTI) ham petrol bug\u00fcn %7\u2019nin \u00fczerinde de\u011fer kaybederek 78,45 dolara kadar inerken, otomatik trend izleyen algoritmik i\u015flemlerin uzun pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 tasfiye etmesiyle k\u0131sa vadeli oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artmas\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Jeopolitik risk primindeki bu h\u0131zl\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclme, opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n hedefleyebilece\u011fi klasik bir \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131 tepki\u201d \u00f6rne\u011fi sunuyor. K\u0131sa vadeli a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivmeden faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli (short-dated) put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz; ancak piyasan\u0131n beklenenden daha erken g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir taban bulma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 nedeniyle temkinli olunmal\u0131.<\/p>\n
Man\u015fetler diplomatik bir k\u0131r\u0131lmaya i\u015faret etse de, fiziki tarafta H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan tanker trafi\u011finin h\u00e2len yaln\u0131zca 3\u20134,5 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn ile ciddi bi\u00e7imde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ger\u00e7e\u011fine bakmak gerekiyor. Tarihsel olarak A\u011fustos ay\u0131ndaki zirve talep d\u00f6neminde k\u00fcresel ham petrol stoklar\u0131 zaten s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131k seyrediyor. Son enerji verileri, ABD ticari ham petrol stoklar\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k 422 milyon varil civar\u0131nda dola\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bunun be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k mevsimsel ortalaman\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %4 alt\u0131nda bulundu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. \u201cK\u00e2\u011f\u0131t piyasadaki\u201d sat\u0131\u015f ile fiziki arz s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki bu ayr\u0131\u015fmadan yararlanmak i\u00e7in, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) put sat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 veya y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc al\u0131m spread\u2019lerine (bull call spread) girilmesini, olas\u0131 bir fiyat toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131 yakalamak ad\u0131na \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de devreye girecek OPEC+ \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 (g\u00fcnl\u00fck 188 bin varil) de fiyatlamas\u0131 gerekiyor; bu art\u0131\u015f, piyasaya kademeli \u015fekilde ek fiziki arz getirecek. Planl\u0131 bu art\u0131\u015f ile son derece \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemez ABD-\u0130ran diplomasisinin birle\u015fimi, ham petrol oynakl\u0131k endeksinin tarihsel ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, k\u0131sa vadeli diplomatik \u201cg\u00fcr\u00fclt\u00fc\u201d ile daha uzun vadeli arz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n etkilerinin farkl\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131ndan faydalanmak \u00fczere takvim spread\u2019lerinin (calendar spread) kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Petrolde sert sat\u0131\u015f: WTI 78,45 dolara inerek g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %7,76 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; ABD-\u0130ran mesajlar\u0131 risk primini eritti. OPEC+ Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de +188 bin varil\/g\u00fcn art\u0131r\u0131yor, oynakl\u0131k ve opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49959,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52291","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t