EUR\/USD Teknik Seviyeler ve Volatilite Stratejisi<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na EUR\/USD\u2019de 1,1500 seviyesini yak\u0131ndan izlemelerini tavsiye ediyoruz; parite 1,1558\u2019i g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra son zirvelerine yak\u0131n b\u00f6lgede konsolide oluyor. Euro B\u00f6lgesi imalat PMI verisinin 51,9 ile s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir geni\u015flemeye i\u015faret etmesi nedeniyle, olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 yakalamak ad\u0131na dar bantta opsiyon straddle stratejileri kurgulanabilir. Bu yatay seyir, ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin kritik 100 e\u015fi\u011finin hemen alt\u0131nda 99,84 seviyesinde dalgaland\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6neme denk geliyor.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran m\u00fczakerelerine ili\u015fkin jeopolitik ba\u015fl\u0131klar son derece \u00e7eli\u015fkili kalmaya devam ediyor ve piyasa duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 gergin tutuyor. Diplomatik s\u00f6ylemde ani de\u011fi\u015fimlere kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in, d\u00f6viz strangle gibi k\u0131sa vadeli volatilite t\u00fcrevlerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da beklenmedik jeopolitik t\u0131rmanmalar h\u0131zl\u0131 \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 tetiklemi\u015f ve \u00e7o\u011fu zaman dolar\u0131 tek bir seansta %1,5\u2019in \u00fczerinde yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Yakla\u015fan Veriler ve Fed G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/p>\n
Bu hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanacak JOLTS A\u00e7\u0131k \u0130\u015f Say\u0131s\u0131 ve Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP) verileriyle birlikte d\u00f6viz ve emtia piyasalar\u0131nda sert dalgalanmalar bekliyoruz. ABD imalat PMI verisinin 55,6 ile yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u00fcrpriz yapmas\u0131 nedeniyle, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir istihdam verisi k\u0131sa vadede dolarda keskin bir ralli ba\u015flatabilir. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, istihdam verisinin zay\u0131f gelmesi halinde olas\u0131 dolar de\u011fer kayb\u0131na haz\u0131rlan\u0131rken a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in EUR\/USD\u2019de bariyer opsiyonlarla pozisyonlanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in agresif faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131ndan uzakla\u015fmas\u0131, a\u011fustos ay\u0131n\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda dolar\u0131n daha geni\u015f e\u011filiminde k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u00fcrebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Tarihsel para politikas\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fimlerine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, merkez bankalar\u0131 y\u00f6nlendirmeden (forward guidance) vazge\u00e7ti\u011finde d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131nda \u00e7o\u011fu zaman uzun soluklu trend d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fleri g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr. Bu de\u011fi\u015fen makro ortamdan faydalanmak i\u00e7in sonbahar vadeli uzun vadeli EUR\/USD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 olu\u015fturmay\u0131 tercih ediyoruz.<\/p>\n
EUR\/USD, pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD-\u0130ran diplomasisine ili\u015fkin kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k sinyaller ve m\u00fcdahale kaynakl\u0131 zay\u0131flaman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan daha istikrarl\u0131 bir ABD dolar\u0131 e\u015fli\u011finde dar bir bantta kald\u0131. Yaz\u0131m s\u0131ras\u0131nda parite 1,1515 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131; g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde 1,1558\u2019i g\u00f6rerek 17 Haziran\u2019dan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik planlanan bir sald\u0131r\u0131y\u0131 iptal etti\u011fini ve m\u00fczakerelerin pazartesi ba\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n \u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 S\u00f6zc\u00fcs\u00fc \u0130smail Beka\u00ee, Tahran\u2019\u0131n \u015fu anda Washington ile g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme y\u00fcr\u00fctmedi\u011fini belirterek risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tuttu.<\/p>\n
Veriler ise ayr\u0131\u015fan bir tablo sundu. ABD ISM \u0130malat PMI temmuzda hazirandaki 53,3\u2019ten 55,6\u2019ya y\u00fckselerek 54,0\u2019l\u0131k beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131 ve May\u0131s 2022\u2019den bu yana en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seviyeye i\u015faret etti; sekt\u00f6r, on ayl\u0131k daralman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u00fcst \u00fcste yedinci ay geni\u015fleme kaydetti. Euro B\u00f6lgesi \u0130malat PMI 51,4\u2019ten 51,9\u2019a y\u00fckselerek \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n zirvesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ancak 52,0 beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. ABD Dolar Endeksi, 15 Haziran\u2019dan bu yana en zay\u0131f seviye olan 99,42\u2019den toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 99,84 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Odak, ABD istihdam verilerine kayd\u0131: Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc JOLTS, \u00e7ar\u015famba ADP ve cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (NFP). NFP, ABD \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma \u0130statistikleri B\u00fcrosu\u2019nun (BLS) ayl\u0131k raporu i\u00e7inde yer al\u0131yor ve Fed\u2019in tam istihdam hedefi ile %2 enflasyon amac\u0131 \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde yak\u0131ndan izleniyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" EUR\/USD 1,1500 e\u015fi\u011finde s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131; 1,1558 sonras\u0131 konsolidasyon s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Zay\u0131f Euro PMI ve 99,84 DXY g\u00f6lgesinde straddle\/strangle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; JOLTS-NFP ve ABD-\u0130ran ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131 sert volatilite getirebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49971,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52288","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t