T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin haziran d\u0131\u015f ticaret verileri, may\u0131s ay\u0131ndaki tatil etkilerinin ard\u0131ndan kalemin her iki taraf\u0131nda da toparlanma g\u00f6r\u00fclmesine kar\u015f\u0131n d\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %26,2 artarak 10,4 milyar ABD dolar\u0131na geni\u015fledi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi. \u0130hracat %21,7 y\u00fckseli\u015fle 24,9 milyar ABD dolar\u0131na \u00e7\u0131karken, ithalat %23,0 artarak 35,3 milyar ABD dolar\u0131na ula\u015ft\u0131. B\u00f6ylece ithalat\u0131n ihracattan daha h\u0131zl\u0131 artmas\u0131, d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesini zay\u0131flatt\u0131. Bununla birlikte, y\u0131ll\u0131k kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma en g\u00fcncel marjinal trend a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir sinyal sunuyor.<\/p>\n
Mevsim ve takvim etkilerinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bazda, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da ko\u015fullar\u0131n bir miktar istikrar kazanmas\u0131yla may\u0131staki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan hem ihracat hem ithalat toparland\u0131; ancak ivmenin h\u00e2l\u00e2 ithalat lehine oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u0130thalat kompozisyonu da bu tabloyu peki\u015ftirdi: Ara mal\u0131 ithalat\u0131 %30,0 artarken, sermaye mal\u0131 ithalat\u0131 %19,6 y\u00fckseldi; t\u00fcketim mal\u0131 ithalat\u0131 ise %1,2 geriledi. Daha uzun vadede d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 son aylarda GSYH\u2019nin yakla\u015f\u0131k %6\u2019s\u0131 seviyesinde genel olarak yatay seyrediyor; bu da cari a\u00e7\u0131k gibi makro dengesizlikleri daraltmaya y\u00f6nelik y\u0131llara yay\u0131lan parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya ra\u011fmen \u00f6demeler dengesi bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Son d\u00f6nemde 10,4 milyar dolara ula\u015fan T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin geni\u015fleyen d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019n\u0131n y\u00fcksek k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 korudu\u011funa dair net bir uyar\u0131 sinyali olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n agresif faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na\u2014son bir y\u0131lda politika faizini yakla\u015f\u0131k %50 civar\u0131nda tutmas\u0131na\u2014ra\u011fmen, \u00f6demeler dengesinin temel dinamiklerinde belirgin bir iyile\u015fme sa\u011flanamad\u0131. GSYH\u2019nin yakla\u015f\u0131k %6\u2019s\u0131 civar\u0131nda inat\u00e7\u0131 bi\u00e7imde kal\u0131c\u0131 olan bu a\u00e7\u0131k, parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n tek ba\u015f\u0131na kurun uzun vadeli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc istikrara kavu\u015fturmakta yetersiz kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n USD\/TRY al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n alarak Lira\u2019daki ilave zay\u0131flamaya kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon almas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, ara mal\u0131 ithalat\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zla artmas\u0131 ve t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveninin zay\u0131flamas\u0131; yerli sanayinin gelecekteki enflasyon ve kur d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerine kar\u015f\u0131 agresif bi\u00e7imde korunma (hedge) aray\u0131\u015f\u0131na girdi\u011fine i\u015faret eder. USD\/TRY\u2019nin bu yaz tarih\u00ee y\u00fcksek seviyelerde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bir ortamda, opsiyon z\u0131mni volatilitesinin, yakla\u015fan \u00f6demeler dengesi risklerine k\u0131yasla h\u00e2l\u00e2 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131 kanaatindeyiz.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca, ani de\u011fer kay\u0131plar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flarken y\u00fcksek faiz farklar\u0131ndan yararlanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli d\u00f6viz forwardlar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin d\u00f6viz rezervleri \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi ve ithalat talebinin ihracat art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 geride b\u0131rakmaya devam etmesi, sert bir kur d\u00fczeltmesi riskini art\u0131r\u0131yor. Sonbahara yakla\u015f\u0131rken, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki uzun pozisyonlu varl\u0131klar\u0131n kur riskinin \u015fimdi hedge edilmesi, portf\u00f6yleri Lira \u00fczerindeki ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz bask\u0131ya kar\u015f\u0131 koruyacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Haziran verileri ihracat ve ithalatta toparlanmaya i\u015faret etse de d\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131k %26,2 art\u0131\u015fla 10,4 milyar dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. \u0130thalat ivmesi, ara mal\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve lira k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor; USD\/TRY\u2019de hedge \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50084,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52287","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t