{"id":52284,"date":"2026-08-03T18:51:43","date_gmt":"2026-08-03T18:51:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/tayvanda-2-ceyrek-gsyh-buyumesi-yavasladi-ic-talep-onculugunde-cikislar-surerken-hisseler-ve-tayvan-dolari-baski-altinda\/"},"modified":"2026-08-03T18:51:43","modified_gmt":"2026-08-03T18:51:43","slug":"tayvanda-2-ceyrek-gsyh-buyumesi-yavasladi-ic-talep-onculugunde-cikislar-surerken-hisseler-ve-tayvan-dolari-baski-altinda","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/tayvanda-2-ceyrek-gsyh-buyumesi-yavasladi-ic-talep-onculugunde-cikislar-surerken-hisseler-ve-tayvan-dolari-baski-altinda\/","title":{"rendered":"Tayvan\u2019da 2. \u00e7eyrek GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi yava\u015flad\u0131; i\u00e7 talep \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar s\u00fcrerken hisseler ve Tayvan dolar\u0131 bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda"},"content":{"rendered":"

Tayvan\u2019\u0131n \u00f6nc\u00fc ikinci \u00e7eyrek verileri, GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin ilk \u00e7eyrekteki %14,5\u2019ten y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %12,9\u2019a yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterirken, \u00e7eyreklik bazda (QoQ saar) ivme \u00f6nceki %6,9\u2019a k\u0131yasla %9,9 ile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini korudu. Bile\u015fimde de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6zlendi: Net ihracat man\u015fet b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye 5,8 puan katk\u0131 verirken, i\u00e7 talep 7,1 puan katk\u0131 sa\u011flad\u0131; b\u00f6ylece son be\u015f \u00e7eyrekte ilk kez i\u00e7 talep, net ihracat\u0131 geride b\u0131rakt\u0131. 2026 ve 2027 GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminleri s\u0131ras\u0131yla %9,4 ve %4,5 seviyelerinde korunuyor; 2Y26\u2019dan 2027\u2019ye uzanan d\u00f6nemde, yapay zek\u00e2 kaynakl\u0131 geni\u015flemeden daha normalle\u015fmi\u015f bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme temposuna ge\u00e7i\u015f referans al\u0131n\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Veriler, 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde bir merkez bankas\u0131 hamlesiyle uyumlu \u00e7er\u00e7eveleniyor; T\u00dcFE enflasyonunun 2Y26 boyunca y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %2\u2013%2,5 band\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor. 4\u00c7\u2019de 12,5 baz puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015f, politika iskonto oran\u0131n\u0131 %2,125\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131yacakt\u0131r. Piyasa ko\u015fullar\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131 kalmaya devam ediyor: TAIEX, haziran sonundaki zirvesinden %10 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da; temmuzda yabanc\u0131lar\u0131n TAIEX\u2019teki net sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 23 milyar ABD dolar\u0131na ula\u015ft\u0131 ve bu tabloya KOSPI\u2019deki volatilite de e\u015flik etti.<\/p>\n

Hisse Senedi ve Kur Piyasas\u0131 Etkileri<\/h3>\n

T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, Tayvan hisse senedi piyasas\u0131nda s\u00fcregelen oynakl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 koruyucu put alarak veya TAIEX vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyon alarak haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n yaln\u0131zca temmuz ay\u0131nda yerel hisselerde 23 milyar ABD dolar\u0131 tutar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sat\u0131\u015f ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmesiyle endeks, haziran zirvelerinden %10 geriledi. Bu \u00f6l\u00e7ekteki sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131, ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki b\u00fcy\u00fck teknoloji d\u00fczeltmelerini and\u0131r\u0131yor ve \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, yar\u0131 iletken a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 Tayvan endeksi i\u00e7in ilave a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklere i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n

Bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, d\u00f6viz forwardlar\u0131 veya opsiyonlar arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla Yeni Tayvan Dolar\u0131\u2019nda (TWD) ilave zay\u0131flamaya pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak bu \u00f6l\u00e7ekli sert hisse sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131, 2022\u2019deki k\u00fcresel teknoloji sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen de\u011fer kayb\u0131 bask\u0131s\u0131na benzer \u015fekilde, para birimi \u00fczerinde belirgin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yarat\u0131r. Likiditenin s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bir ortamda USD\/TWD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131, kurdaki bu bask\u0131y\u0131 asimetrik bir \u015fekilde de\u011ferlendirme imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunar.<\/p>\n

Sabit Getiri ve Para Politikas\u0131 G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/h3>\n

Sabit getirili tarafta, faiz swaplar\u0131nda sabit faiz \u00f6demeyi (pay fixed) veya Tayvan devlet tahvili vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyon almay\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc i\u00e7 talep ve y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %2,0\u2013%2,5 band\u0131nda seyretmesi beklenen kat\u0131 enflasyon dinamikleri, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131 d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte 12,5 baz puanl\u0131k bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na zorlayabilir. Para politikas\u0131ndaki s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmay\u0131 tarihsel olarak yak\u0131ndan takip eden 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Tayvan devlet tahvili getirilerinin, iskonto oran\u0131n\u0131n %2,125\u2019e y\u00f6nelmesiyle y\u00fckselmesi beklenmektedir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u015ea\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 sinyal: Tayvan\u2019da b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u0131ll\u0131kta %12,9\u2019a yava\u015flasa da \u00e7eyreklik ivme %9,9 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc. \u0130\u00e7 talep net ihracat\u0131 ge\u00e7ti. 4\u00c7\u2019de 12,5 bp faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131, TAIEX\u2019te ek risk.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50066,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52284","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t