{"id":52276,"date":"2026-08-03T16:51:51","date_gmt":"2026-08-03T16:51:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/bny-rupi-petrol-ve-dolar-ruzgarlarina-karsi-koymaya-calisirken-rbinin-faizi-525te-sabit-tutacagini-ongoruyor\/"},"modified":"2026-08-03T16:51:51","modified_gmt":"2026-08-03T16:51:51","slug":"bny-rupi-petrol-ve-dolar-ruzgarlarina-karsi-koymaya-calisirken-rbinin-faizi-525te-sabit-tutacagini-ongoruyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/bny-rupi-petrol-ve-dolar-ruzgarlarina-karsi-koymaya-calisirken-rbinin-faizi-525te-sabit-tutacagini-ongoruyor\/","title":{"rendered":"BNY, Rupi Petrol ve Dolar R\u00fczgarlar\u0131na Kar\u015f\u0131 Koymaya \u00c7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rken RBI\u2019nin Faizi %5,25\u2019te Sabit Tutaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00d6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

BNY, Hindistan Rezerv Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBI) politika faizini (repo) %5,25\u2019te de\u011fi\u015ftirmeden b\u0131rakmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor; politikay\u0131 yap\u0131\u015fkan enflasyon ve yava\u015flayan b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin \u015fekillendirdi\u011fi belirtiliyor. RBI\u2019nin, faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 ayarlamak yerine enflasyon beklentileri ile arz y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskleri \u00f6nceleyece\u011fi; finansal istikrar\u0131 ve d\u00fczenli kur piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 desteklemek i\u00e7in makroihtiyati tedbirlere daha fazla yaslanaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Raporda, daha y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ve daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n INR \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131, rupinin bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ifade ediliyor. Hindistan ve Filipinler\u2019de merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n kur oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 \u201cr\u00fczg\u00e2ra kar\u015f\u0131\u201d pozisyon ald\u0131\u011f\u0131; yurti\u00e7i temeller zay\u0131flarken ve enerji fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fcksek seyrederken dahi aktif m\u00fcdahalelerin USD\/INR ve USD\/PHP\u2019de yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor. Ayr\u0131ca ta\u015f\u0131ma (carry) getirisini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karan bir pozisyonlanmaya at\u0131f yap\u0131l\u0131yor ve do\u011frudan kur riskine k\u0131yasla vadenin (duration) daha iyi performans g\u00f6stermesinin beklendi\u011fi kaydediliyor.<\/p>\n

Para Politikas\u0131 G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ve Kur \u00dczerindeki Bask\u0131<\/h3>\n

\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda Hindistan Rezerv Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n repo faizini %5,25 seviyesinde sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131 ve faiz ayarlamalar\u0131ndan ziyade finansal istikrara \u00f6ncelik vermesini bekliyoruz. Brent petrol\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 80 dolar civar\u0131nda dalgalanmas\u0131 ve ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin diren\u00e7li kalmas\u0131, Hint rupisi \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 bask\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor. Bu nedenle t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na agresif faiz indirimlerine oynayan pozisyonlardan ka\u00e7\u0131nmalar\u0131n\u0131 ve uzun s\u00fcreli bir politika duraklamas\u0131na haz\u0131rlanmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n

Hindistan ve Filipinler merkez bankalar\u0131 USD\/INR ve USD\/PHP\u2019de yukar\u0131 hareketi s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in aktif m\u00fcdahalede bulundu\u011fundan, do\u011frudan uzun dolar pozisyonlar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir d\u00fczenleyici tavanla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. Bu t\u00fcr yo\u011fun merkez bankas\u0131 savunmas\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerinde USD\/INR bir ay vadeli ima edilen volatilitenin tarihsel olarak %3 ila %4 gibi dar bantlara s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. Opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na, do\u011frudan USD\/INR al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu almak yerine volatilite satmalar\u0131n\u0131 veya iron condor gibi bant i\u00e7i stratejiler kullanmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n

\u0130\u015flem Yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131: Vade ve Ta\u015f\u0131ma Getirisini \u00d6ne \u00c7\u0131karma<\/h3>\n

Do\u011frudan kura maruz kalmak yerine tahvil vadesi (duration) ve ta\u015f\u0131ma getirisine odaklanman\u0131n daha y\u00fcksek de\u011fer sundu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Yerel tahvil getirileri dengelenirken, Hindistan Gecelik Endeks Swaplar\u0131 (OIS) veya devlet tahvili vadeli i\u015flemlerini kullanmak \u00e7ok daha temiz bir risk-getiri profili sunuyor. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, yo\u011fun \u015fekilde y\u00f6netilen spot d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrt\u00fcnmeden ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131rken istikrarl\u0131 getirileri yakalamam\u0131za olanak tan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Piyasalarda g\u00f6zler RBI\u2019da: BNY, repo faizinin %5,25\u2019te sabit kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, yap\u0131\u015fkan enflasyon-yava\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcme ikileminde makroihtiyati ad\u0131mlar\u0131n \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor; petrol\/dolar bask\u0131s\u0131 s\u00fcrerken, carry ve duration daha cazip.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49987,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52276","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t