ING, ABD\u2013Japonya ortak d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalesine ili\u015fkin s\u0131ra d\u0131\u015f\u0131 bir vakaya dikkat \u00e7ekti. Buna g\u00f6re Washington, Fed \u00fczerinden s\u00fcrece dahil olurken, Japonya ise ABD Hazine tahvillerini do\u011frudan satmak yerine Fed\u2019in FIMA repo imk\u00e2n\u0131n\u0131 kullanarak elindeki Hazine k\u00e2\u011f\u0131tlar\u0131n\u0131 teminat g\u00f6sterip dolar likiditesi sa\u011flad\u0131. Hamle, Fed\u2019in ocak ay\u0131nda \u201ckurlar\u0131 yoklamas\u0131\u201dn\u0131n (m\u00fcdahalenin tipik bir \u00f6nc\u00fcl i\u015fareti olarak tan\u0131mlan\u0131yor) ard\u0131ndan cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc devreye al\u0131nd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Banka de\u011ferlendirmesinde operasyonu, piyasan\u0131n USD\/JPY\u2019yi 160\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine itmesini engellemeye y\u00f6nelik bir \u201c\u00e7evreleme\u201d giri\u015fimi olarak \u00e7er\u00e7eveledi; bu sayede Tokyo\u2019ya yeni yen-destekleyici ad\u0131mlar\u0131 devreye alma zaman\u0131 kazand\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi. Bu ad\u0131mlar, fonlar\u0131n Japonya i\u00e7 varl\u0131klar\u0131na y\u00f6nelmesini te\u015fvik edecek d\u00fczenlemeleri de i\u00e7erebilir. G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme ili\u015fkin olarak ING, s\u00f6z konusu m\u00fcdahalenin temel politika zeminini de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi: Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131ma yak\u0131n bir yerde konumlanmas\u0131, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n ise gev\u015fek para ve maliye duru\u015funu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi. Bu nedenle USD\/JPY\u2019nin 155\u2019in alt\u0131na kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde itilmesini beklemedi\u011fini kaydetti.<\/p>\n
\u015eu anda ABD ve Japonya\u2019n\u0131n yenin de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in nadir g\u00f6r\u00fclen ortak bir \u00e7aba sergiledi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; ancak t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir trend d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fc beklememeli. Washington\u2019\u0131n Fed \u00fczerinden aktif kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131na ve Japonya\u2019n\u0131n Hazine tahvillerini piyasaya \u201cbo\u015faltmamak\u201d i\u00e7in FIMA repo imk\u00e2n\u0131n\u0131 kullanmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, temel politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131, h\u00e2l\u00e2 k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 konumdaki Fed\u2019e k\u0131yasla g\u00f6rece gev\u015fek bir duru\u015f korudu\u011fu i\u00e7in, USD\/JPY\u2019nin 155 seviyesinin alt\u0131na kal\u0131c\u0131 bi\u00e7imde sarkmas\u0131n\u0131n son derece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131k oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Opsiyon ve vadeli i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu ortak m\u00fcdahale, uzun vadeli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendini ba\u015flatan bir kataliz\u00f6rden ziyade 160 seviyesine yak\u0131n b\u00f6lgede \u201csert bir tavan\u201d i\u015flevi g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Tarihsel veriler, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n 2024 ortas\u0131nda rekor 9,8 trilyon yenlik m\u00fcdahalesi gibi tek tarafl\u0131 ad\u0131mlar\u0131n, faiz farklar\u0131n\u0131n belirleyicili\u011fi yeniden devreye girene kadar yaln\u0131zca ge\u00e7ici bir rahatlama sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizinin yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,1 seviyesinde seyretti\u011fi, Japonya 10 y\u0131ll\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n ise %1,1\u2019in \u00fczerinde tutunmakta zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ortamda, carry trade te\u015fviki son derece g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, bu bant hareketli \u201c\u00e7evreleme\u201dyi de\u011ferlendirecek \u015fekilde stratejilerini ayarlamas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. 160 \u00fczerindeki USD\/JPY call spread\u2019leriyle yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc volatilitenin sat\u0131lmas\u0131 olduk\u00e7a cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; zira ortak m\u00fcdahale tehdidi, pariteyi bu e\u015fi\u011fin \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131maya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar\u0131 ciddi bi\u00e7imde cezaland\u0131racakt\u0131r. Ayn\u0131 zamanda, 155 taban\u0131na yak\u0131n b\u00f6lgede al\u0131m limitleri belirlenmesini veya put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n kademeli biriktirilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc geri \u00e7ekilmelerde al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n bu b\u00f6lgede yeniden devreye girmesi y\u00fcksek olas\u0131l\u0131k.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" 160 \u201ctavan\u201d m\u0131 oluyor? ING\u2019ye g\u00f6re ABD\u2013Japonya ortak m\u00fcdahalesi FIMA repo \u00fczerinden devrede; USD\/JPY\u2019yi 160 \u00fcst\u00fcnden \u00e7evreliyor. Ancak Fed-BOJ politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor, 155 alt\u0131 kal\u0131c\u0131 de\u011fil.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49997,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52270","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t