H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresindeki Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi petrol piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00f6nlendirmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 yeniden ertelenince Brent erken i\u015flemlerde geriledi. Bu hamle, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc risk para birimleriyle ayn\u0131 zamana denk gelirken, hisse senetleri de hafta sonuna do\u011fru g\u00f6r\u00fclen y\u00fckseli\u015flere ek yapmaya haz\u0131rlan\u0131yordu; ancak genel desen tekrarland\u0131: haftan\u0131n ilerleyen g\u00fcnlerinde sald\u0131r\u0131lar \u00e7o\u011fu zaman yeniden ba\u015fl\u0131yor, petrol fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fckseliyor, hisse senetleri geri \u00e7ekiliyor ve tahvil getirileri yukar\u0131 hareket ediyor.<\/p>\n\n
Piyasa, k\u00fcresel stoklardaki b\u00fcy\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri hazmetmi\u015f durumda; zira fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 \u015fimdiye kadar ciddi bir talep tahribat\u0131n\u0131 tetiklemek i\u00e7in \u00e7o\u011funlukla yetersiz kald\u0131. \u00d6te yandan, daha y\u00fcksek fiyatlar arz taraf\u0131nda bir tepkiye yol a\u00e7t\u0131; sava\u015f\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan bu yana ABD petrol sondaj kulesi say\u0131s\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %11 artt\u0131 ve rafineri kapasite kullan\u0131m oranlar\u0131 da y\u00fckseldi. OPEC+ ayr\u0131ca Eyl\u00fcl\u2019den itibaren \u00fcretim kotas\u0131nda 188 bin varillik ilave bir art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret etti; ancak Do\u011fu Avrupa ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki sava\u015f ko\u015fullar\u0131 bu art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u015fimdilik b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde teorik b\u0131rak\u0131yor. Rafine \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde ise Singapur gazya\u011f\u0131 (gasoil) spot fiyatlar\u0131, Brent\u2019e g\u00f6re uzun d\u00f6nem ortalama fark\u0131n iki standart sapman\u0131n \u00fczerinde kalmaya devam etti.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, Orta Do\u011fu gerilimlerinde tekrarlayan haftal\u0131k d\u00f6ng\u00fcden yararlanarak k\u0131sa vadeli taktiksel pozisyonlar uygulamas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Haftan\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndaki Brent d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri\u2014\u00e7o\u011funlukla ge\u00e7ici diplomatik duraklamalarla tetiklenen\u2014k\u0131sa vadeli (yak\u0131n vadeli) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 i\u00e7in cazip al\u0131m f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 sunuyor. Jeopolitik s\u00fcrt\u00fc\u015fme tipik olarak haftan\u0131n ilerleyen g\u00fcnlerinde yeniden t\u0131rmand\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, bu kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n realize edilmesi veya ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f (risk-off) dalgas\u0131n\u0131 yakalamak i\u00e7in hisse endeksi vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyonla portf\u00f6ylerin hedge edilmesine bak\u0131lmal\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Piyasan\u0131n alttaki g\u00fcc\u00fc en iyi rafine \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; Singapur gazya\u011f\u0131 spot fiyatlar\u0131 Brent\u2019e g\u00f6re uzun d\u00f6nem fark\u0131n\u0131n iki standart sapman\u0131n \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Tarihsel olarak crack spread\u2019lerin bu kadar keskin ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, nihayetinde ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 daha yukar\u0131 iten ciddi bir fiziksel arz s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret eder. Bu bozulmay\u0131, primi yakalamak amac\u0131yla uzun takvim spread\u2019leri veya gazya\u011f\u0131-Brent crack spread\u2019inde y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc opsiyonlarla i\u015flemeyi \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
OPEC+\u2019\u0131n Eyl\u00fcl 2026\u2019dan itibaren g\u00fcnl\u00fck 188 bin varil \u00fcretim kotas\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131na gitmesi planlan\u0131rken, baz\u0131 piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 bask\u0131lar\u0131n azalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Ancak Do\u011fu Avrupa ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki fiziksel ger\u00e7ekler bu arz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7o\u011fu zaman yaln\u0131zca teorik k\u0131l\u0131yor. Devam eden transit darbo\u011fazlar\u0131n\u0131n fiili teslimatlar\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 tutmas\u0131 y\u00fcksek olas\u0131l\u0131k oldu\u011fundan, ileri vadeli kontratlarda (back-month) k\u0131sa pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nermiyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
ABD petrol sondaj kulesi say\u0131s\u0131 b\u00f6lgesel \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan bu yana yakla\u015f\u0131k %11 artsa da, kapasite s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 nedeniyle yurt i\u00e7i \u00fcretim g\u00fcnl\u00fck 13,4 milyon varil civar\u0131nda plato yapt\u0131. Bu arz tavan\u0131, Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki ani bir kesintiyi telafi etme kabiliyetini s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda sert bir fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla, vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) uzun Brent al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n elde tutulmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" H\u00fcrm\u00fcz gerilimi petrol\u00fc oynat\u0131yor: ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019a sald\u0131r\u0131y\u0131 ertelemesiyle Brent geriledi. Haftal\u0131k d\u00f6ng\u00fc s\u00fcrebilir; crack spread sinyali g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc. Taktik opsiyon\/hedge, uzun Brent call \u00f6neriliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50171,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52269","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t