ABD\u2013\u0130ran geriliminde hafta sonu ya\u015fanan tansiyon d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, Ba\u015fkan Trump\u2019\u0131n planlanan sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 iptal etmesi ve pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc yeni g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemesinin ard\u0131ndan Avrupa piyasalar\u0131na y\u00f6n verdi. Brent yakla\u015f\u0131k %5 gerileyerek varil ba\u015f\u0131na 83 dolar civar\u0131na inerken, WTI 74 dolara yak\u0131n seyretti; OPEC+ ise Eyl\u00fcl\u2019den itibaren \u00fcretim hedeflerini ilave 188 bin varil\/g\u00fcn art\u0131rma konusunda anla\u015ft\u0131 ve b\u00f6ylece 2023\u2019teki g\u00f6n\u00fcll\u00fc kesintilerin geri al\u0131nmas\u0131 s\u00fcreci tamamland\u0131. Faizlerde ralli g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc: 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k \u0130ngiltere tahvili getirileri yakla\u015f\u0131k 6 baz puan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle %4,98\u2019e, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k Bund getirileri ise yakla\u015f\u0131k 5 baz puan gerileyerek %3,16\u2019ya indi; di\u011fer yandan tahminler, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 rotalarda g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 5 milyon varil ham petrol\u00fcn h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u201cg\u00f6r\u00fcnmeden\u201d (dark) ta\u015f\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti. Riskli varl\u0131klar dengelendi: STOXX 600 %0,4 y\u00fckselirken, DAX %1,47, CAC 40 %1,24 artt\u0131 ve S&P 500 vadeli i\u015flemleri %0,44 y\u00fckseldi; Brent %4,3 ve WTI %5,2 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fteydi; alt\u0131n %0,4 artarken DXY %0,1 geriledi; BTC %1,1 ve ETH %1,6 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n\n
FX taraf\u0131nda Japonya ve ABD, nadiren G\u00fcney Kore\u2019nin de kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131yla koordineli yen al\u0131m m\u00fcdahalesini do\u011frulad\u0131; USD\/JPY 164\u2019e yak\u0131n seviyelerden 156\u2019lar\u0131n ortas\u0131na geriledi ve 155,21\u2019i g\u00f6rd\u00fc; haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k 65 milyar dolarl\u0131k sat\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret etti. BOJ fiyatlamas\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fti: Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %40\u2019a yak\u0131n, Ekim ise yakla\u015f\u0131k %89\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k JGB getirileri 1995\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeye, 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiriler rekor seviyelere ula\u015ft\u0131. Fed\u2019in 2025 takvimi sekiz planl\u0131 toplant\u0131da kal\u0131rken, oy hakk\u0131 olmayan bir \u00fcye bu hafta 25 baz puan art\u0131\u015f\u0131 destekledi. Makro veriler kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kt\u0131: Euro B\u00f6lgesi nihai imalat PMI 51,9; Almanya 52,2; Fransa 49,8; \u0130talya 51,3; \u0130spanya 50,2; \u0130ngiltere nihai PMI 51,9 oldu. Almanya perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ayl\u0131k %1,1 d\u00fc\u015ferken y\u0131ll\u0131k %4,6 artt\u0131; \u0130svi\u00e7re T\u00dcFE ayl\u0131k %-0,1 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k %0,4, \u00e7ekirdek y\u0131ll\u0131k %0,3 geldi; T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de T\u00dcFE ayl\u0131k %1,8 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k %31,8 olurken, d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesi -7,3 milyar dolar olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. \u015eirket taraf\u0131nda, yakla\u015f\u0131k 400 milyar dolara yak\u0131n AstraZeneca\u2013Bristol Myers anla\u015fmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler, Prysmian\u2019\u0131n Atkore\u2019u hisse ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolardan ve yakla\u015f\u0131k 3,8 milyar dolar \u015firket de\u011feriyle (EV) sat\u0131n almas\u0131, Ageas\u2019\u0131n 1,1 milyar euroya hisse sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve KOSPI\u2019nin %5,1 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle kapanmas\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki ani d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften hareketle petrol piyasas\u0131 volatilitesinde sert bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye pozisyonlanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel veriler, jeopolitik tansiyonun d\u00fc\u015fmesi kaynakl\u0131 olarak Brent\u2019in bir g\u00fcnde %4\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde gerilemesi durumunda Cboe Crude Oil Volatility Index\u2019in (OVX) takip eden iki haftada ortalama %12 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor. Bu volatilite s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in, Brent ve WTI vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerinde para d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131lmas\u0131 veya ay\u0131 piyasas\u0131 put spread\u2019lerinin uygulanmas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n\n
D\u00f6viz cephesinde, ABD ve Japonya\u2019n\u0131n koordineli USD\/JPY m\u00fcdahalesini temel bir rejim de\u011fi\u015fimi olarak ele almak gerekir. \u00c7ok tarafl\u0131 m\u00fcdahaleler tarihsel olarak tek tarafl\u0131 olanlara k\u0131yasla belirgin bi\u00e7imde daha ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131; 1990\u2019lar\u0131n sonundan bu yana ortak aksiyonlar\u0131n, \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k ufukta kur d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015flerini kal\u0131c\u0131 k\u0131lmada yakla\u015f\u0131k %70 ba\u015far\u0131 oran\u0131 sergiledi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Ekim i\u00e7in faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015fimdi yakla\u015f\u0131k %89\u2019a s\u0131\u00e7ram\u0131\u015fken, 150 seviyesine do\u011fru ilave geri \u00e7ekilmeyi yakalamak ad\u0131na k\u0131sa vadeli USD\/JPY put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Hisse senedi taraf\u0131nda, AstraZeneca ile Bristol Myers Squibb aras\u0131nda s\u00f6ylentisi dola\u015fan 400 milyar dolarl\u0131k mega anla\u015fma opsiyon piyasas\u0131nda acil dikkat gerektiriyor. B\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli ila\u00e7 birle\u015fmelerine dair s\u00f6ylentiler, ilgili hisselerde z\u0131mni volatilitede tipik olarak %30\u2013%50 art\u0131\u015f tetikler. Resmi m\u00fczakerelerin ya g\u00fc\u00e7 kazanmas\u0131 ya da bozulmas\u0131yla beklenen b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat sal\u0131n\u0131mlar\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in bu isimlerde uzun straddle stratejileri de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n\n
Son olarak, Avrupa PMI\u2019lar\u0131ndaki kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ve tahvil getirilerindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f; endeks opsiyonlar\u0131yla sekt\u00f6r rotasyonu stratejileri i\u00e7in klasik bir ortam sunuyor. D\u00fc\u015fen enerji maliyetleri sanayi ve seyahat sekt\u00f6rlerini desteklerken, enerji devleri \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, DAX veya b\u00f6lgesel seyahat endeksleri \u00fczerine al\u0131m opsiyonu al\u0131n\u0131rken, e\u015f zamanl\u0131 olarak ba\u015fl\u0131ca Avrupa enerji ETF\u2019leri \u00fczerinde put al\u0131m\u0131yla de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Jeopolitik tansiyon d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce Avrupa\u2019da risk i\u015ftah\u0131 toparland\u0131: petrol %5 geriledi, tahvil getirileri d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, hisseler y\u00fckseldi. USD\/JPY m\u00fcdahaleyle \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcld\u00fc. \u00d6neri: OVX\u2019te s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma, yen putlar\u0131, mega-M&A straddle.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50158,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52264","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t