Sterlin Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 1,3450 civar\u0131na geriledi; seans\u0131n erken saatlerinde 1,3500 \u00fczerindeki yedi haftan\u0131n zirvesini g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra yeniden 1,3400\u2019lerin ortas\u0131na \u00e7ekildi. Hareket, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k S&P Global \u0130malat PMI verisinin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize edilmesini izledi: Temmuz nihai okumas\u0131 52,8\u2019lik \u00f6nc\u00fc tahminden 51,2\u2019ye indirildi ve Haziran\u2019daki 52,5 seviyesine k\u0131yasla da so\u011fuyarak fabrika faaliyetlerinde ivme kayb\u0131n\u0131n \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7ekte artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti. Para birimi, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 da i\u00e7eren \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalarda duraklama oldu\u011funa dair haberlerin ard\u0131ndan Asya a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ilk etapta de\u011fer kazanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Daha geni\u015f FX dinamikleri de Dolar \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131; ABD ve Japonya\u2019n\u0131n Japon Yeni\u2019ni desteklemek \u00fczere koordineli m\u00fcdahalesi bunun ba\u015fl\u0131ca nedeni oldu. USD\/JPY Per\u015fembe ve Cuma g\u00fcnleri toplamda %3,5\u2019ten fazla d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; ard\u0131ndan Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc yeni bir s\u0131\u00e7ramayla volatiliteyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek ilave ad\u0131mlara dair s\u00f6ylemleri yeniden alevlendirdi ve Dolar \u00e7apraz kurlar\u0131na dalga etkisiyle yay\u0131ld\u0131. Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k faizlerinde swap e\u011frisi, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 12 ayda 4,35\u2019e do\u011fru 50 baz puanl\u0131k s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya i\u015faret ederken, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) tahvil stokunun azalt\u0131m h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 daha da yava\u015flatabilece\u011fini de belirtmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k \u0130malat PMI\u2019\u0131n ilk 52,8 tahmininden 51,2\u2019ye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesinin ard\u0131ndan GBP\/USD\u2019de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc hedeflemek i\u00e7in net bir f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Haziran\u2019daki 52,5 seviyesinden gelen bu sert geri \u00e7ekilme, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta ekonomik ivmenin bir\u00e7ok ki\u015finin bekledi\u011finden daha h\u0131zl\u0131 so\u011fudu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. T\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, Sterlin\u2019de k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir; paritenin son zirvelerinden geri \u00e7ekilmesiyle birlikte 1,3450\u2019deki mevcut deste\u011fin alt\u0131na olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 hedefleyebilir.<\/p>\n
Swap piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki bir y\u0131lda 4,35\u2019e kadar 50 baz puan faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor olmas\u0131, bize g\u00f6re a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir d\u00fczeltmeye a\u00e7\u0131k. Zay\u0131flayan imalat verileri ile BoE\u2019nin niceliksel s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmay\u0131 (QT) yava\u015flatma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n\u2014daha \u00f6nce y\u0131ll\u0131k 100 milyar sterlin gilt azalt\u0131m\u0131yla ilerleyen s\u00fcrecin\u2014birle\u015fimi, ileride daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck getirilere i\u015faret ediyor. Bu de\u011fi\u015fen para politikas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcnden faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli faiz swaplar\u0131nda sabit faiz alma (receive) pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 veya uzun gilt vadeli i\u015flemlerinde al\u0131m y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc tercih ediyoruz.<\/p>\n
ABD-Japonya ortak merkez bankas\u0131 m\u00fcdahalesinin ard\u0131ndan USD\/JPY\u2019de g\u00f6r\u00fclen %3,5\u2019lik sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 kur volatilitesinin hakim oldu\u011fu bir ortam yaratt\u0131. Piyasan\u0131n olas\u0131 yeni resm\u00ee m\u00fcdahaleler i\u00e7in e\u015fi\u011fi test etti\u011fi bu d\u00f6nemde, ani ve keskin hareketlerden faydalanmak \u00fczere USD\/JPY\u2019de opsiyon straddle stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bug\u00fcn duyurulan ABD-\u0130ran m\u00fczakerelerinin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 risk alma e\u011filimiyle birle\u015fen ve Dolar \u00fczerindeki bu s\u00fcregelen bask\u0131, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda defansif dolar pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 olduk\u00e7a k\u0131r\u0131lgan hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Sterlin 1,3450\u2019ye geriledi: \u0130malat PMI 51,2\u2019ye revize, ivme zay\u0131f. BoE QT\u2019yi yava\u015flatabilir, swaplar 50 bp s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma fiyatl\u0131yor. Yen m\u00fcdahalesi dolar\u0131 bask\u0131l\u0131yor; volatilite y\u00fckseliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49989,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52263","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t