{"id":52260,"date":"2026-08-03T11:22:04","date_gmt":"2026-08-03T11:22:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/fed-faiz-artisi-beklentileri-kulce-altindaki-yukselisi-sinirlarken-altin-kritik-abd-verileri-oncesinde-baski-altinda-kaliyor\/"},"modified":"2026-08-03T11:22:04","modified_gmt":"2026-08-03T11:22:04","slug":"fed-faiz-artisi-beklentileri-kulce-altindaki-yukselisi-sinirlarken-altin-kritik-abd-verileri-oncesinde-baski-altinda-kaliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/fed-faiz-artisi-beklentileri-kulce-altindaki-yukselisi-sinirlarken-altin-kritik-abd-verileri-oncesinde-baski-altinda-kaliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentileri k\u00fcl\u00e7e alt\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlarken alt\u0131n kritik ABD verileri \u00f6ncesinde bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kal\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"

Alt\u0131n, haftan\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (Nonfarm Payrolls) raporu ve ISM \u0130malat PMI dahil \u00f6nemli ABD verileri \u00f6ncesinde pozisyon almas\u0131yla bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Getiri sa\u011flamayan k\u0131ymetli metal \u00fczerinde, daha s\u0131k\u0131 Fed politikas\u0131 beklentileri a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k olu\u015fturmaya devam ediyor. CME FedWatch Tool, eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %65 seviyesinde g\u00f6steriyor; bu arka plan, XAUUSD\u2019nin temkinli kalmas\u0131na neden oldu. Bununla birlikte, Japon Yeni\u2019nin olas\u0131 resmi m\u00fcdahaleye y\u00f6nelik yeniden artan oda\u011f\u0131n etkisiyle g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi sonras\u0131 ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yumu\u015famas\u0131 kay\u0131plar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131; USD\/JPY \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine geriledikten sonra hareketin bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 geri ald\u0131.<\/p>\n

Fiyatlamada jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler de etkili oldu. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik yeni sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n iptal edildi\u011fini ve yak\u0131nda bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Bu geli\u015fme petrol\u00fc a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekerken, enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyon endi\u015felerini de hafifletti. Grafiklerde alt\u0131n, yatay bir destek alan\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde dengeleniyor ancak geni\u015f bir d\u00fc\u015fen takoz formasyonu i\u00e7inde hareket etmeye devam ediyor; a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 e\u011fimli diren\u00e7 \u00e7izgisi toparlanmalar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Fiyat \u015fu anda takoz direncine yak\u0131n: kal\u0131c\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lma d\u00fczeltme faz\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ederken, yeni bir reddedilme mevcut e\u011filimi koruyacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrev ve D\u00f6viz Piyasas\u0131 Pozisyonlanmas\u0131<\/h3>\n

\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalara girerken t\u00fcrev i\u015flemler taraf\u0131ndaki yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n son derece temkinli, \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 benimsemesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. CME FedWatch Tool\u2019un bu eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda ABD faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %65 seviyesinde fiyatlamas\u0131 nedeniyle, alt\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli yukar\u0131 potansiyeli belirgin \u015fekilde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kal\u0131yor. Yakla\u015fan ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam ve ISM \u0130malat PMI verilerinin yak\u0131ndan izlenmesini \u00f6neriyoruz; g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdam verisi getirileri yukar\u0131 iterken alt\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir.<\/p>\n

\u015eu a\u015famada ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019nda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bunun temel nedeni, Japon Yeni\u2019nin resmi m\u00fcdahale s\u00f6ylentileri e\u015fli\u011finde sert toparlanmas\u0131. Tarihsel olarak USD\/JPY paritesinin h\u0131zl\u0131 geriledi\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde\u20142024 ortas\u0131nda g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz m\u00fcdahale kaynakl\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7ramalara benzer \u015fekilde\u2014alt\u0131n i\u00e7in ge\u00e7ici bir \u201cg\u00fcvenlik a\u011f\u0131\u201d olu\u015fur. Alt\u0131n konsolidasyondayken ani d\u00f6viz oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in, d\u00f6viz opsiyonlar\u0131nda straddle stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n

Jeopolitik De\u011fi\u015fimler, Teknik Seviyeler ve \u0130\u015flem Stratejisi<\/h3>\n

Jeopolitik cephede, son d\u00f6nemde askeri harek\u00e2t\u0131n iptali ve \u0130ran ile bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin ba\u015flamas\u0131, k\u0131sa vadeli piyasa pani\u011fini azaltt\u0131. Bu diplomatik de\u011fi\u015fim enerji piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 da so\u011futtu; k\u00fcresel ham petrol g\u00f6stergeleri varil ba\u015f\u0131na 75 dolar band\u0131na daha yak\u0131n seviyelere geriledi. Jeopolitik tansiyonun d\u00fc\u015fmesi, genellikle k\u00fcl\u00e7edeki \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman primi\u201dni azaltaca\u011f\u0131ndan, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara alt\u0131n vadeli i\u015flemlerinde uzun volatilite pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 azaltmalar\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n

Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan alt\u0131n, geni\u015f bir d\u00fc\u015fen takoz formasyonunun \u00fcst band\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. \u0130statistiksel olarak d\u00fc\u015fen takozlar yakla\u015f\u0131k %68 olas\u0131l\u0131kla yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131mla sonu\u00e7lan\u0131r; bu da yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in kritik bir e\u015fik anlam\u0131na geliyor. Agresif uzun pozisyonlara ge\u00e7meden \u00f6nce, bu d\u00fc\u015fen diren\u00e7 \u00fczerinde teyitli bir g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclmesini beklemeyi \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n

Opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in, olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmay\u0131 prim erozyonuna a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 maruz kalmadan yakalamak ad\u0131na bo\u011fa al\u0131m spreadi (bull call spread) gibi riski tan\u0131ml\u0131 stratejileri tercih ediyoruz. Alt\u0131n takoz direncinden bir kez daha geri \u00e7evrilirse, konsolidasyon s\u0131ras\u0131nda prim toplamak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc (upside) call opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Bu haftaki yo\u011fun ekonomik takvim daha net bir trend sunana kadar toplam pozisyon b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fcklerinin m\u00fctevaz\u0131 tutulmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Alt\u0131nda g\u00f6zler ABD NFP ve ISM PMI\u2019da: Fed\u2019in eyl\u00fclde %65 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimali XAUUSD\u2019yi bask\u0131l\u0131yor. Yen m\u00fcdahale s\u00f6ylentileri dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131p kay\u0131plar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor; d\u00fc\u015fen takoz kritik.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50022,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52260","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t