Resmi do\u011frulama, ABD\u2019nin yenin g\u00fc\u00e7lendirilmesi amac\u0131yla Japonya\u2019n\u0131n m\u00fcdahalesini destekledi\u011fini ve bunun uzun y\u0131llardan sonra ilk kez ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilen koordineli bir ad\u0131m oldu\u011funu belirtti. Yetkililer, ilave operasyonlar\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011funu ifade ederken, olas\u0131 bir tekrar\u0131n IMF kurallar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131tlarla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015faca\u011f\u0131; Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc hamlenin ise kay\u0131tlardaki en b\u00fcy\u00fck tek g\u00fcnl\u00fck m\u00fcdahale olarak tahmin edildi\u011fi aktar\u0131ld\u0131. Haberde ayr\u0131ca, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde yeniden m\u00fcdahale etmesi h\u00e2linde, bu stat\u00fcy\u00fc koruyabilmek i\u00e7in Kas\u0131m ay\u0131na kadar Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n fiilen se\u00e7eneklerini t\u00fcketmi\u015f olaca\u011f\u0131 belirtildi.<\/p>\n
De\u011ferleme taraf\u0131nda, yen OECD sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fc paritesi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fcne g\u00f6re belirgin \u015fekilde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck de\u011ferli olarak tan\u0131mland\u0131 ve halihaz\u0131rda ABD dolar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 %60\u2019tan fazla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck de\u011ferli oldu\u011fu ifade edildi. Kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma amac\u0131yla, euronun yakla\u015f\u0131k %29 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck de\u011ferli oldu\u011fu belirtildi. Notta, iletim mekanizmas\u0131n\u0131n bir par\u00e7as\u0131 olarak ABD Hazine tahvilleri (UST) ve Japon devlet tahvillerine (JGB) i\u015faret edilirken; Japonya\u2019n\u0131n m\u00fcdahale i\u00e7in dolar temin etmek amac\u0131yla UST satmas\u0131 ya da UST teminat g\u00f6stererek nakit kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 Fed\u2019in repo imk\u00e2n\u0131n\u0131 kullanmas\u0131n\u0131n tart\u0131\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 kaydedildi.<\/p>\n
Japon yeni, sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fc paritesi baz\u0131nda ABD dolar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 %40\u2019\u0131 a\u015fan tarihsel d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck de\u011ferleme seviyelerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rerek temel a\u00e7\u0131dan ucuz kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Son piyasa dalgalanmalar\u0131na ra\u011fmen, ABD ve Japonya\u2019n\u0131n ortak d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalesi tehdidi, FX opsiyon ve vadeli fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131 yeniden \u015fekillendiriyor. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, p\u00fcr\u00fczs\u00fcz ve \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir bir trend yerine ani ve y\u00fcksek \u015fiddetli volatilite s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekiyor.<\/p>\n
Ani ve kamu otoriteleri kaynakl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015flere kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) JPY al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 tercih etmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faizi %0,25\u2019e y\u00fckseltmesinin ard\u0131ndan daha s\u0131k\u0131 bir duru\u015fu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesiyle birlikte, ta\u015f\u0131ma i\u015flemi (carry trade) art\u0131k tek y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00fcvenli bir bahis de\u011fil. Straddle gibi volatilite stratejilerinden yararlanmak, bir sonraki m\u00fcdahalenin tam zamanlamas\u0131n\u0131 tahmin etmeye gerek kalmadan bu sert hareketlerden faydalanmaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca ABD Hazine piyasas\u0131n\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlemek gerekiyor; zira Japonya\u2019n\u0131n Fed\u2019in repo imk\u00e2n\u0131n\u0131 kullanma ihtimali, ABD tahvillerinde do\u011frudan sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. S\u0131k s\u0131k 350 milyar dolar civar\u0131nda dalgalanan Fed\u2019in yabanc\u0131 repo havuzu (foreign repo pool) verilerini takip etmek, likidite kaymalar\u0131na ili\u015fkin erken sinyaller sunacakt\u0131r. Bu bakiyelerin h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fmesi, Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeni desteklemek i\u00e7in teminat\u0131 nakde \u00e7evirmeye y\u00f6nelik haz\u0131rl\u0131k yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterebilir.<\/p>\n
Politika k\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131n\u0131n Japonya\u2019n\u0131n y\u0131l sonuna kadar piyasaya ne s\u0131kl\u0131kla girebilece\u011fini s\u0131n\u0131rlamas\u0131 nedeniyle, bu m\u00fcdahaleler i\u00e7in pencere olduk\u00e7a dar. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ani likidite tuzaklar\u0131na yakalanmamak i\u00e7in teminats\u0131z k\u0131sa JPY pozisyonlar\u0131nda kald\u0131rac\u0131n azalt\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. Bu y\u00fcksek riskli ortamda, spot i\u015flemler yerine yap\u0131land\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f opsiyonlarla sermayeyi korumak en g\u00fcvenli yakla\u015f\u0131m olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" \u015eok geli\u015fme: ABD, yen\u2019i g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmek i\u00e7in Japonya\u2019n\u0131n rekor m\u00fcdahalesine destek verdi. Yeni ad\u0131mlar masada, ancak IMF k\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131 var. Yen PPP\u2019ye g\u00f6re %60 ucuz; opsiyonlarla korunma \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49957,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52251","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t