ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY), ABD ve Japon yetkililerin USD\/JPY\u2019de ortak d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalesini do\u011frulamas\u0131na ra\u011fmen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini korudu; Japonya\u2019n\u0131n son \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcnde 70-80 milyar dolar satt\u0131\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor. Hamle, daha zay\u0131f petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ve ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik olarak Washington\u2019\u0131n tercihinin asker\u00ee eylemden ziyade m\u00fczakere oldu\u011funa i\u015faret eden a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131yla ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neme denk geldi. Buna ra\u011fmen dolar genel \u00e7apta zay\u0131flamad\u0131; piyasalar eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda bir Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Dikkatler k\u0131sa vadeli ABD verilerine \u00e7evriliyor. \u0130lk olarak temmuz ay\u0131 ISM imalat verisi, ard\u0131ndan JOLTS a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131, ADP ve cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam (NFP) dahil olmak \u00fczere bir dizi i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 g\u00f6stergesi izlenecek. NFP i\u00e7in piyasa beklentisi yakla\u015f\u0131k +75-80 bin seviyesinde; bu, eyl\u00fcl faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerini ortadan kald\u0131rmas\u0131 muhtemel olmayan bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm. Bu arka planda DXY\u2019nin m\u00fcdahale man\u015fetlerine duyarl\u0131 ancak etkisi giderek azalan bir tepki verdi\u011fi belirtilirken, 99,35\/40 civar\u0131nda destek ve bu hafta yeniden 100 seviyesinin \u00fczerine toparlanma potansiyeli \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, 70-80 milyar dolarl\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli Japon d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalesine ra\u011fmen \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ABD dolar\u0131nda diren\u00e7 senaryosuna g\u00f6re pozisyon almas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Ortak m\u00fcdahaleler genellikle USD\/JPY\u2019yi so\u011futsa da, daha geni\u015f ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor ve yeniden 100 seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmaya haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcnde. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, bu toparlanmay\u0131 yakalamak i\u00e7in 99,35\/40 destek b\u00f6lgesine yak\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli DXY al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc tutan ana etken, piyasalar\u0131n eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 i\u00e7in h\u00e2l\u00e2 bir Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor olmas\u0131. Son CME FedWatch verileri, k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme ivme kaybederken dahi yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d ortam\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunma (hedge) arad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcze g\u00f6re bu ay yaln\u0131zca belirgin \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde zay\u0131f ekonomik veriler Fed\u2019in ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya gitmesini engelleyebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu haftan\u0131n yo\u011fun veri takvimi\u2014bug\u00fcnk\u00fc ISM \u0130malat endeksi ve cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam\u2014dolar\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc belirleyecek. NFP beklentisi 75-80 bin ile s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret etse de, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015funu destekleyecek kadar s\u0131k\u0131 kalmaya devam ediyor. Bu veriler etraf\u0131nda beklenen sert fiyat hareketlerinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in EUR\/USD ve USD\/JPY \u00fczerinde opsiyon straddle stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca, Brent petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki gerileme\u2014halen \u00e7ok ayl\u0131k dip seviyelere yak\u0131n\u2014tarihsel olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde dolar\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmiyor. Bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, FX piyasas\u0131nda \u015fu a\u015famada faiz farklar\u0131n\u0131n belirleyici g\u00fc\u00e7 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. A\u011fustos ay\u0131na ilerlerken Japon yeni ve euro kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda uzun USD pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n korunmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" DXY, 70-80 milyar dolarl\u0131k Japon m\u00fcdahalesine ra\u011fmen sars\u0131lmad\u0131: Fed\u2019in eyl\u00fcl faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131 dolar\u0131 ayakta tutuyor. G\u00f6zler ISM-JOLTS-ADP-NFP verilerinde; 99,35\/40 destek, 100 \u00fcst\u00fc hedef.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49977,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52247","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t