Ba\u015fl\u0131ca merkez bankalar\u0131 politikalar\u0131n\u0131 sabit tuttu; ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed), \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) ve Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) gecelik faizleri de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi. Piyasalar ayr\u0131ca Logan, Hammack ve Kashkari\u2019nin \u00fc\u00e7 muhalif oy olarak eklendi\u011fi, olduk\u00e7a s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir Fed metnini de fiyatlad\u0131. Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh, daha y\u00fcksek nominal ve reel tahvil getirilerini finansal ko\u015fullar i\u00e7in s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 bir unsur olarak i\u015faret ederken herhangi bir ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirme vermedi. FX taraf\u0131nda USD\/JPY yakla\u015f\u0131k 600 pip (yakla\u015f\u0131k %4) geriledi ve Japonya Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n, yenin 40 y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerinden s\u00fcren de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 durdurmak \u00fczere ABD ile koordineli m\u00fcdahalesinin ard\u0131ndan Ekim 2025\u2019ten bu yana ilk kez 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131na indi; bu, 2011\u2019den bu yana ilk ortak m\u00fcdahale oldu. Faiz fiyatlamas\u0131 Mart 2027\u2019ye kadar iki BoJ art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na i\u015faret ederken, piyasalar Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de art\u0131r\u0131m olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %40\u2019a y\u00fckseltti (bir hafta \u00f6nce %20).<\/p>\n\n
Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n, \u0130kinci D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019ndan bu yana \u201cen b\u00fcy\u00fc\u011f\u00fc\u201d olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi\u011fi \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik planlanan sald\u0131r\u0131y\u0131 iptal etmesinin ard\u0131ndan risk i\u015ftah\u0131 toparland\u0131; bug\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 bildiriliyor ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde kapal\u0131. Brent ve WTI a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015fta yakla\u015f\u0131k %8 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, dolar endeksi gev\u015fedi ve ABD Hazine tahvili getirileri gerilerken; Avrupa ve ABD hisse endeksi vadeli i\u015flemleri y\u00fckseldi. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n Asya-Pasifik hisseleri, G\u00fcney Koreli \u00e7ip \u00fcreticilerindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerin etkisiyle zay\u0131flad\u0131. Odak ABD verilerine \u00e7evrildi: ISM imalat endeksi bug\u00fcn GMT 14:00\u2019te a\u00e7\u0131klanacak; medyan beklenti Haziran\u2019daki 53,3\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 54,0, tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 ise 57,0 ile 52,8 aras\u0131nda. Yeni sipari\u015fler ve istihdam\u0131n her biri %20 a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011fa sahip. Temmuz tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam\u0131n ise Haziran\u2019daki 57 binin ard\u0131ndan yakla\u015f\u0131k 83 bin gelmesi bekleniyor; Haziran y\u0131ll\u0131k T\u00dcFE, \u00dcFE ve PCE verileri beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n Fed\u2019in sessizli\u011fine ve ABD-Japonya\u2019n\u0131n tarihi ortak yen m\u00fcdahalesine uyum sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu d\u00f6nemde, y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131kla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131yay\u0131z. USD\/JPY\u2019deki son %4\u2019l\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn pariteyi 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131na itmesi, piyasan\u0131n bu kur hareketlerini son derece ciddiye ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Tarihsel olarak 2011\u2019deki gibi ortak m\u00fcdahaleler uzun vadeli kur trendlerini tersine \u00e7evirmekte ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 oldu; bu nedenle bu kez USD\/JPY\u2019deki geri \u00e7ekilmeyi \u201cotomatik\u201d \u015fekilde almay\u0131 tercih etmemeliyiz.<\/p>\n\n
Y\u00fcksek kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 spot FX yerine, ani m\u00fcdahale s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak i\u00e7in uzun JPY call opsiyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Japonya Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, 2024 ortas\u0131nda tahminen 35 milyar dolarl\u0131k yen al\u0131m\u0131yla benzer \u015fekilde, para birimini savunmak i\u00e7in on milyarlarca dolar harcamaya istekli oldu\u011funu g\u00f6stermi\u015f durumda. Daha fazla ortak eylem tehdidi, USD\/JPY\u2019de riskleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc \u00e7arp\u0131k tutuyor; bu da ucuz, vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) JPY call\u2019lar\u0131n\u0131 cazip bir volatilite stratejisine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n
Faiz cephesinde, Ba\u015fkan Warsh\u2019tan ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck y\u00f6nlendirme gelmemesi, piyasan\u0131n Fed\u2019in fiyat istikrar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 sorgulamas\u0131yla ABD getiri e\u011frisini daha dik hale getirdi. Bu dikle\u015fmenin s\u00fcrmesine, Hazine opsiyonlar\u0131 veya getiri e\u011frisi spread i\u015flemleriyle pozisyon al\u0131nabilir. Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nce iki \u00f6nemli enflasyon raporu daha a\u00e7\u0131klanaca\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, k\u0131sa vadede faiz oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Bug\u00fcn ISM imalat PMI\u2019\u0131n\u0131n 54,0 seviyesinde gelmesi ve Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam\u0131n 83 bin beklenmesiyle, ABD verileri dolar\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc belirleyecek. Bu verilerde belirgin bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrpriz, USD\u2019deki sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131rabilir ve yenin toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131 destekleyebilir. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli olumlu veri s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131 sonras\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenen USD\u2019yi satmak, risk-getiri bak\u0131m\u0131ndan en mant\u0131kl\u0131 kurulum gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n
Jeopolitik gerilimin aniden d\u00fc\u015fmesi petrol\u00fc %8 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekerek bug\u00fcn hisse vadelerinde risk-on alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 destekledi. Enerji t\u00fcrevlerinde h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u015fi\u015fkin seyreden ima edilen volatiliteye bakarak, ilk panik yat\u0131\u015f\u0131rken credit spread\u2019ler \u00fczerinden prim sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Ancak H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde kapal\u0131 kalmaya devam etti\u011fi i\u00e7in, ani arz man\u015fetleri riskini y\u00f6netmek ad\u0131na pozisyon boyutlar\u0131n\u0131 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck tutmak gerekiyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" K\u00fcresel merkezler faizde pas ge\u00e7ti; Fed sessiz, \u00fc\u00e7 muhalif oy dikkat \u00e7ekti. Tarihi ABD-Japonya m\u00fcdahalesi USD\/JPY\u2019yi %4 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 iptali petrol\u00fc %8 bask\u0131lad\u0131; g\u00f6zler ISM ve tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdamda.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50193,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52246","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t