Risk i\u015ftah\u0131, ABD ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n yeniden diplomasiyi devreye almas\u0131yla iyile\u015fti; odak daha sonra temmuz ay\u0131 ISM \u0130malat PMI verisine kayd\u0131. Gerilimin azald\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik anlat\u0131 petrol\u00fc sert vurdu: WTI varil ba\u015f\u0131na 78 dolar civar\u0131na inerek g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %8\u2019in \u00fczerinde gerilerken, Brent cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 90 dolar\/varil civar\u0131nda tamamlamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 84 dolar\/varilin hemen alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Hisse endeksi vadeli i\u015flemleri %0,5 ile %0,8 y\u00fckseldi; Dolar Endeksi ise haftal\u0131k %1,5\u2019i a\u015fan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan 100,00 seviyesinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Fed cephesinden gelen yorumlar, Dallas Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Lorie Logan\u2019\u0131n FXS Speechtracker puan\u0131n\u0131n tarihsel 6,7\/10 ortalamas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k 8,7\/10 seviyesinde gelmesine ve \u00e7eyrek puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na yatk\u0131nl\u0131k sinyali vermesine ra\u011fmen dolar\u0131 pek toparlayamad\u0131. FX taraf\u0131nda USD\/JPY, toparlanmadan \u00f6nce 155,50\u2019nin alt\u0131na sarkarak may\u0131s ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana en zay\u0131f seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc; parite 156,80 civar\u0131nda ve yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,4 eksideydi. Japonya maliye bakan\u0131, yetkililerin ABD ile koordineli yen al\u0131m m\u00fcdahalesi yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6ylemesinin ard\u0131ndan, pazartesi olas\u0131 FX m\u00fcdahalesine ili\u015fkin yorum yapmad\u0131. EUR\/USD 1,1520 civar\u0131nda yatay seyrederken, GBP\/USD 1,3450\u2019nin hemen \u00fczerine geriledi; alt\u0131n ise yatay bantta 4.000 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde tutundu.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran geriliminin ani \u015fekilde d\u00fc\u015fmesinden yararlanmak i\u00e7in t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ham petrol taraf\u0131nda k\u0131sa-orta vadeli opsiyon stratejilerine odaklanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak petrol fiyatlar\u0131 tek seansta %8\u2019in \u00fczerinde d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, z\u0131mni volatilite (CBOE Ham Petrol Volatilite Endeksi ile \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclen) s\u0131\u00e7rama e\u011filimi g\u00f6sterir; bu da iron condor gibi prim sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 stratejilerini olduk\u00e7a cazip k\u0131lar. Jeopolitik risk primleri \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmeye devam ederken WTI\u2019\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda 75-80 dolar band\u0131nda konsolide olmas\u0131n\u0131 beklemeliyiz.<\/p>\n
D\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda, Japon ve ABD otoritelerinin do\u011frulanan koordineli m\u00fcdahaleleri nedeniyle Japon yeni konusunda son derece temkinli olunmal\u0131. Koordineli kur m\u00fcdahaleleri tarihsel olarak nadirdir ancak y\u00fcksek etkilidir; ge\u00e7mi\u015f G7 \u00f6rneklerine g\u00f6re \u00e7o\u011fu zaman kur trendlerini 30 ila 60 g\u00fcne kadar tersine \u00e7evirebilir. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, piyasadaki yeni \u201cani m\u00fcdahale\u201d endi\u015fisi de dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, 150,00 seviyesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye pozisyon almak i\u00e7in USD\/JPY put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Daha geni\u015f risk i\u015ftah\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131na ra\u011fmen alt\u0131n, tarihi 4.000 dolar e\u015fi\u011finin \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kal\u0131rken, y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc diyagonal spread uygulamak i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u0130statistiksel olarak alt\u0131n, kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon endi\u015felerinin ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemleri takip eden aylarda tarihsel olarak ortalama %8-10 getiri sa\u011flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Lorie Logan gibi Fed yetkililerinin enflasyonda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risklere kar\u015f\u0131 \u015fahin kalmas\u0131 nedeniyle, alt\u0131n\u0131n birincil korunma arac\u0131 olarak yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivmesini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi muhtemel.<\/p>\n
Hisse t\u00fcrevleri taraf\u0131nda, ABD hisse endeksi vadeli i\u015flemlerindeki mevcut y\u00fckseli\u015f, paraya yak\u0131n (near-the-money) bull call spread al\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat sunuyor. Jeopolitik tehditlerin azalmas\u0131 ve 100,00\u2019in alt\u0131nda dengelenen Dolar Endeksi kombinasyonu, genellikle hisse senetleri i\u00e7in destekleyici bir zemin olu\u015fturur; tarihsel olarak benzer jeopolitik \u015fok sonras\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerin %70\u2019inde pozitif getiri g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. \u00d6\u011fleden sonra a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ISM \u0130malat PMI verisiyle ekonomik dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n teyit edilmesini yak\u0131ndan izlerken, endeks opsiyonlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa vadeli yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyelin hedeflenmesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Diplomasiyle risk i\u015ftah\u0131 canland\u0131, petrol sert d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc: WTI 78$, Brent 84$ alt\u0131. Vadeli endeksler y\u00fckselirken DXY 100 alt\u0131. Strateji: petrolde prim sat\u0131\u015f\u0131, USD\/JPY put, alt\u0131nda diyagonal, hissede bull call spread.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50062,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52243","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t