Fitch Ratings, H\u0131rvatistan, \u00c7ekya ve Romanya\u2019n\u0131n egemen kredi notlar\u0131n\u0131 teyit ederken, bug\u00fcn \u00c7ekya, Macaristan, Polonya ve Romanya\u2019da PMI verileri a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. Avrupa Komisyonu\u2019nun ge\u00e7en haftan\u0131n sonunda yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 ve t\u00fcketici anketleri, 2026 3\u00c7\u2019nin ba\u015f\u0131nda ODA (CEE) b\u00f6lgesi genelinde ekonomik ivmenin g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Ekonomik Duyarl\u0131l\u0131k Endeksi (ESI), Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki askeri \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015fokun ard\u0131ndan t\u00fcketici g\u00fcvenindeki toparlanmayla a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak y\u00fckseldi. CEE8 genelinde ortalama t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni be\u015f y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; Macaristan ise endeksin 2018\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyeye ula\u015fmas\u0131yla ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Piyasalarda Macar forinti, Paks n\u00fckleer santralinin Tuna Nehri\u2019ndeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck su seviyeleri nedeniyle ge\u00e7ici olarak elektrik \u00fcretimini durduraca\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin haberlerin ard\u0131ndan cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc euro kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda %0,8 geriledi. Kesintinin elektrik \u015febekesi \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratmas\u0131 beklenirken, son g\u00fcnlerde baz\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u015firketlerden elektrik t\u00fcketimini azaltmalar\u0131 istendi. Temmuzda akaryak\u0131t fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n oynak seyretmesiyle birlikte, a\u011fustos anket verilerinin iyile\u015fmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcp s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeyece\u011fi ya da tersine \u00e7evirip \u00e7evirmeyece\u011fi izlenecek. \u00d6te yandan Romanya\u2019n\u0131n Moody\u2019s taraf\u0131ndan yap\u0131lacak bir sonraki egemen not de\u011ferlendirmesi bu cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc takvimde.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, k\u0131sa vadeli EUR\/HUF al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n alarak Macar forintinde (HUF) ilave zay\u0131flamaya pozisyon almas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tuna\u2019daki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck su seviyeleri nedeniyle Paks n\u00fckleer santralinde \u00fcretimin ge\u00e7ici durmas\u0131\u20142022\u2019de b\u00f6lgesel elektrik fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 rekorlara ta\u015f\u0131yan Avrupa kurakl\u0131\u011f\u0131na olduk\u00e7a benzer bir geli\u015fme\u2014Macaristan\u2019\u0131n enerji \u015febekesini ve daha geni\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7ekte ekonomiyi muhtemelen zorlayacak. Bu beklenmedik arz \u015foku, 2018\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesine yeni ula\u015fan Macar t\u00fcketici g\u00fcvenindeki son s\u0131\u00e7raman\u0131n faydalar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla geri silebilir.<\/p>\n
Moody\u2019s\u2019in bu cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirece\u011fi not de\u011ferlendirmesi \u00f6ncesinde Romanya egemen tahvil riskinin hedge edilmesini veya Kredi Temerr\u00fct Takas\u0131 (CDS) al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. Romanya ge\u00e7en hafta Fitch\u2019ten gelebilecek bir not indirimini k\u0131l pay\u0131 atlatt\u0131; GSYH\u2019nin %6\u2019s\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131 beklenen kal\u0131c\u0131 b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 bask\u0131y\u0131 son derece y\u00fcksek tutuyor. Tarihsel olarak Moody\u2019s gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck bir kurulu\u015fun g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc negatife \u00e7evirmesi dahi, h\u0131zl\u0131 sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyerek Romanya\u2019n\u0131n 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getiri farklar\u0131n\u0131n Alman Bundlar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcnler i\u00e7inde 30 baz puana kadar a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, bug\u00fcnk\u00fc PMI a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde ODA hisse endeksi opsiyonlar\u0131nda straddle gibi oynakl\u0131k stratejilerini de kullanmas\u0131 gerekir. Polonya, \u00c7ekya ve Macaristan\u2019da ekonomik duyarl\u0131l\u0131k toparlanm\u0131\u015f olsa da, temmuz ay\u0131ndaki akaryak\u0131t fiyat oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n imalat sekt\u00f6r\u00fc i\u00e7in belirgin bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Polonya WIG20 veya \u00c7ekya PX endeksi \u00fczerinde opsiyon i\u015flemleri, bu yak\u0131ndan izlenen imalat raporlar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan tipik olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclen sert piyasa hareketlerinden faydalanma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" CEE\u2019de r\u00fczg\u00e2r tersine mi d\u00f6n\u00fcyor? Fitch notlar\u0131 teyit etti, bug\u00fcn PMI\u2019lar izlenecek. Macaristan\u2019da Paks kesintisi forinti bask\u0131larken, Moody\u2019s \u00f6ncesi Romanya riskine hedge\/CDS, PMI \u00f6ncesi straddle \u00f6neriliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50024,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52241","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t