{"id":52238,"date":"2026-08-03T07:22:17","date_gmt":"2026-08-03T07:22:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/abd-iran-ateskesiyle-petrol-gerilerken-hindistan-rupisi-guclendi-piyasalar-rbi-kararini-bekliyor\/"},"modified":"2026-08-03T07:22:17","modified_gmt":"2026-08-03T07:22:17","slug":"abd-iran-ateskesiyle-petrol-gerilerken-hindistan-rupisi-guclendi-piyasalar-rbi-kararini-bekliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/abd-iran-ateskesiyle-petrol-gerilerken-hindistan-rupisi-guclendi-piyasalar-rbi-kararini-bekliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkesiyle petrol gerilerken Hindistan rupisi g\u00fc\u00e7lendi; piyasalar RBI karar\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

Hindistan rupisi, USD\/INR paritesinin %0,25 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle yakla\u015f\u0131k 95,15\u2019e gerilemesiyle ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131 ve \u00fcst \u00fcste \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc seansta da kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek \u00fc\u00e7 haftadan uzun s\u00fcrenin en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine indi. Hareketin arkas\u0131nda, ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda sa\u011flanan ate\u015fkesin petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmesi yer ald\u0131; 19 A\u011fustos vadeli MCX ham petrol kontrat\u0131 erken i\u015flemlerde %6\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerinde d\u00fc\u015ferek yakla\u015f\u0131k 7.600 rupi seviyesine geriledi. Hafta sonunda, Tahran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmayla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 \u015fartlar\u0131 ve k\u00fcresel enerji arz\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7eren ko\u015fullar\u0131 kabul etmesinin ard\u0131ndan, ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik planlanan sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 ask\u0131ya al\u0131nd\u0131. Hindistan hisseleri de iyile\u015fen risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 izledi; Nifty50 %0,7 y\u00fckselerek 24.555 civar\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n

Piyasalar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 \u015fimdi \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Hindistan Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBI) karar\u0131na \u00e7evrilmi\u015f durumda; repo faizinin %5,25\u2019te sabit tutulmas\u0131 bekleniyor. ABD\u2019de ise dolar endeksi, piyasalar\u0131n Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na %67,7 olas\u0131l\u0131k bi\u00e7mesine ra\u011fmen %0,1 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 99,70 civar\u0131na geriledi. Beklenen veriler aras\u0131nda Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Temmuz ay\u0131 tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam (NFP) verisi ile ISM \u0130malat PMI bulunuyor; PMI i\u00e7in beklenti 54,0 (Haziran: 53,3). Teknik tarafta USD\/INR, 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcssel hareketli ortalaman\u0131n (EMA) 95,75 seviyesinin alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken RSI 42\u2019de; destek seviyeleri 94,78 ve ard\u0131ndan 94,15 olarak izleniyor.<\/p>\n

D\u00f6viz ve Emtia \u0130\u015flemlerine Y\u00f6nelik Tavsiyeler<\/h3>\n

D\u00f6viz t\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na USD\/INR paritesinde k\u0131sa (short) pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 veya sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz; hedef olarak \u00f6nce 94,78\u2019deki yak\u0131n destek, ard\u0131ndan 94,15 seviyesi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Parite, 95,75 seviyesindeki 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcssel hareketli ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor ve 42 seviyesindeki G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f momentunun g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde kontrol\u00fc elinde tuttu\u011funu teyit ediyor. Tarihsel olarak, petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda rahatlama rallileri s\u0131ras\u0131nda Hindistan rupisinin k\u0131sa vadeli kritik hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n alt\u0131na k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n birka\u00e7 hafta s\u00fcreyle korunmas\u0131na e\u011filimli bir g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fc sergiliyor.<\/p>\n

Enerji piyasalar\u0131nda ise, MCX ham petrol vadeli kontrat\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k 7.600 rupi seviyesine gelen ani %6\u2019l\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n k\u0131sa y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filimi korumas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. D\u00fcnya petrol s\u0131v\u0131 t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sini kontrol eden H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131, daha \u00f6nce fiyatlar\u0131 \u015fi\u015firen y\u00fcksek jeopolitik risk primini ortadan kald\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu ani arz g\u00fcvenli\u011fi tamponu, k\u0131sa vadeli olas\u0131 fiyat tepki y\u00fckseli\u015flerinin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirilmesi gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n

Hisse Senedi ve Risk Y\u00f6netimi Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

Nifty50 endeksinin 24.555\u2019e y\u00fckseli\u015finden faydalanmak \u00fczere Nifty50 endeks opsiyonlar\u0131 veya vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda uzun (long) pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Tarihsel olarak ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda varil ba\u015f\u0131na 10 dolarl\u0131k gerileme, Hindistan\u2019\u0131n ithalat faturas\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k 10 milyar dolar azalt\u0131yor ve yurti\u00e7i enflasyondan yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,5 puan k\u0131rp\u0131yor. Bu makroekonomik rahatlama muhtemelen \u015firket k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131k marjlar\u0131n\u0131 destekleyece\u011finden, RBI\u2019n\u0131n yakla\u015fan politika a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde Nifty \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc call spread stratejilerini cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Ayr\u0131ca, RBI\u2019n\u0131n repo faizini %5,25\u2019te sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131n yayg\u0131n bi\u00e7imde beklendi\u011fi \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak gerekiyor. Yurti\u00e7i \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon kontrol alt\u0131nda kalsa da, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam (NFP) verisi \u00f6ncesinde pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 hedge etmeleri \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor. Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %67,7\u2019ye ula\u015fmas\u0131yla, dolarda g\u00f6r\u00fclebilecek k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli bir toparlanma, rupi uzun (long) stratejileri i\u00e7in daha uygun bir giri\u015f seviyesi sunabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Petrol \u00e7ak\u0131ld\u0131, rupi g\u00fc\u00e7lendi: USD\/INR 95,15\u2019e gerileyerek \u00fc\u00e7 haftan\u0131n dibini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. \u0130ran-ABD ate\u015fkesi risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131, Nifty50 y\u00fckseldi. G\u00f6zler RBI ve ABD NFP\/ISM verilerinde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50005,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52238","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t