WTI vadeli i\u015flemleri, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden a\u00e7may\u0131 kabul etmesinin ard\u0131ndan sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131yla, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde NYMEX\u2019te %7,6 d\u00fc\u015ferek yakla\u015f\u0131k 78,60 dolara geriledi. Bu hareket, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik planlanan sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n ask\u0131ya al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemesinin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer hedeflerinden vazge\u00e7ece\u011fi ve k\u00fcresel enerji arz\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019si i\u00e7in bir bo\u011faz niteli\u011findeki su yolunun tamamen yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na izin verece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki iddialar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geldi. Piyasalar, ate\u015fkesin s\u00fcr\u00fcp s\u00fcrmeyece\u011fini de\u011ferlendirirken; a\u00e7\u0131klama, bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin yeniden ba\u015flamas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131 ve k\u0131sa vadede uzun s\u00fcreli arz kesintisi endi\u015felerini azaltt\u0131.<\/p>\n
WTI, ABD-\u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki askeri gerilimin y\u00fckseldi\u011fi d\u00f6nemde temmuzda %22,5\u2019ten fazla y\u00fckselmi\u015fti; ancak fiyat hareketi sonras\u0131nda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc seyre d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Kontrat 78,70 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, 20 saatlik EMA olan 81,18 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; RSI ise 34,20 seviyesinde, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgesinin hemen \u00fczerinde bulunuyor. Direncin 81,18 dolar yak\u0131n\u0131nda, deste\u011fin ise 28 Temmuz dip seviyesi olan 77,16 dolarda oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor; bu seviyenin alt\u0131na k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde 13 Temmuz dibi olan 72,53 dolar g\u00fcndeme gelebilir.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik gerilimin ge\u00e7ici olarak azalmas\u0131yla birlikte WTI ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinde sert a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketlere haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmas\u0131n\u0131 t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na \u00f6neriyoruz. G\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 20,5 milyon varil petrol\u00fcn ge\u00e7ti\u011fi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131yla, k\u0131sa vadeli arz riski primi h\u0131zla ortadan kalk\u0131yor. Fiyat\u0131n kritik 77,16 dolar destek seviyesinin hemen \u00fczerinde seyretmesi nedeniyle, k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131na odaklan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n
WTI\u2019\u0131n 77,16 dolar e\u015fi\u011finin alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131 halinde, temmuz dip seviyesi olan 72,53 dolara do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilme bekliyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, potansiyel %7\u2019lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalanmak i\u00e7in vadeli kontrat satmay\u0131 veya kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 spot seviyeye yak\u0131n (near-the-money) put almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. Ancak G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi\u2019nin (RSI) 34,20 ile a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131ma yak\u0131n olmas\u0131 nedeniyle, bir sonraki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f aya\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli teknik tepki y\u00fckseli\u015fleri g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi olas\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n tarihsel olarak k\u0131r\u0131lgan olmas\u0131 ve ani tersine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015flere a\u00e7\u0131k bulunmas\u0131 nedeniyle son derece temkinli kal\u0131nmal\u0131d\u0131r. G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin beklenmedik \u015fekilde bozulmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar 81,18 dolar diren\u00e7 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. Bu strateji, s\u00fcrpriz bir sald\u0131r\u0131 veya yeniden devreye al\u0131nacak yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n fiyat\u0131 85 dolar seviyesine do\u011fru ani \u015fekilde s\u0131\u00e7ratmas\u0131 halinde portf\u00f6yleri korur.<\/p>\n
Veriler, enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde z\u0131mni volatilitenin (implied volatility) ani jeopolitik de\u011fi\u015fimlerde genellikle %15\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseldi\u011fini ve bunun opsiyon primlerini pahal\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. \u0130\u015flem maliyetini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcrken a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu yakalamaya devam etmek i\u00e7in ay\u0131 (bear) put spread stratejisinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu dengeli yakla\u015f\u0131m, mevcut d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendinden faydalanmay\u0131 sa\u011flarken riski net bi\u00e7imde s\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019\u00fcn yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131yla petrolde tansiyon d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc: WTI Asya\u2019da %7,6 \u00e7ak\u0131l\u0131p 78,60 dolara indi. 77,16 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 72,53 g\u00fcndemde. Put odakl\u0131 strateji, 81,18 \u00fcst\u00fc call ile korunma.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50030,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52225","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t