NZD\/USD pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya seans\u0131nda hafif al\u0131c\u0131l\u0131 seyretti ve \u00c7in\u2019den gelen taze fabrika verilerinin beklentileri ka\u00e7\u0131rmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen 0,5890\u20130,5900 band\u0131 civar\u0131nda tutundu. RatingDog\u2019un \u0130malat PMI\u2019\u0131 temmuzda hazirandaki 51,7\u2019den 50,9\u2019a gerilerken, 51,5\u2019lik beklentinin de alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; buna kar\u015f\u0131n \u00c7in\u2019e duyarl\u0131 Kiwi\u2019de tepki s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131. Dikkatler jeopoliti\u011fe de \u00e7evrilmi\u015f durumda: Bloomberg\u2019in haberine g\u00f6re Donald Trump, planlanan bir sald\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n iptal edilmesinin ard\u0131ndan ABD-\u0130ran aras\u0131nda yeni bir g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme turunun pazartesi \u00f6\u011fleden sonra ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi; ancak \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Mehr haber ajans\u0131, Tahran\u2019\u0131n bir ara talep etti\u011fi iddialar\u0131n\u0131 reddeden ve g\u00fc\u00e7lerin y\u00fcksek alarmda oldu\u011funu belirten yetkililere at\u0131f yapt\u0131. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar ayr\u0131ca pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fcn\u00fcn ilerleyen saatlerinde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD ISM \u0130malat PMI verisini bekliyor.<\/p>\n
Yeni Zelanda\u2019da faiz fiyatlamas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendi; swap e\u011frisi y\u0131l sonuna kadar 60 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 12 ayda ise 3,50 seviyesine toplam 100 baz puanl\u0131k s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma ima ediyor. Bu, beklenen politika duru\u015funu RBNZ\u2019nin tahmini n\u00f6tr aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n (2,20%\u20134,10%) \u00fcst band\u0131na yak\u0131n konumland\u0131rarak, Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 risk i\u015ftah\u0131 dalgalanmalar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman olarak ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 destekleyebilece\u011fi bir ortamda para politikas\u0131 beklentilerini oda\u011fa ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in\u2019den zay\u0131f ekonomik veriler gelmesine ra\u011fmen Kiwi\u2019nin ola\u011fand\u0131\u015f\u0131 bir diren\u00e7 g\u00f6stermesi nedeniyle NZD\/USD paritesinde 0,5900 seviyesi civar\u0131nda uzun pozisyon olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Tarihsel olarak Yeni Zelanda dolar\u0131, \u00c7in\u2019in imalat aktivitesiyle %60\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir pozitif korelasyon sergiliyor; bu da \u00c7in PMI\u2019\u0131n\u0131n 50,9\u2019a d\u00fc\u015fmesine ra\u011fmen Kiwi\u2019nin geri \u00e7ekilmemesinin, derin bir al\u0131m bask\u0131s\u0131na i\u015faret etti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 bu ayr\u0131\u015fmadan, NZD\/USD\u2019de k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 alarak ve \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda 0,6050 seviyesine do\u011fru bir hareketi hedefleyerek yararlanabilir.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca, Kiwi faiz swaplar\u0131 ve vadeli i\u015flemler \u00fczerinden \u015fahin bir Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBNZ) senaryosuna pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Yerel swap e\u011frisi art\u0131k y\u0131l sonuna kadar 60 baz puan, gelecek y\u0131l boyunca ise 3,50\u2019ye toplam 100 baz puan art\u0131\u015f fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, k\u0131sa vadeli getirilerin y\u00fckselmesi bekleniyor. Kal\u0131c\u0131 yurt i\u00e7i enflasyonun besledi\u011fi bu \u015fahin g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, faiz indirimlerinin aktif bi\u00e7imde tart\u0131\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomilerle k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda Yeni Zelanda varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 olduk\u00e7a cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, bug\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD ISM \u0130malat PMI verisi ve dalgal\u0131 ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri \u00f6ncesinde kur straddle stratejileri kullanarak risk i\u015ftah\u0131ndaki ani sal\u0131n\u0131mlara kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak gerekiyor. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da olas\u0131 bir olumlu geli\u015fme, k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u201crisk-on\u201d rallisini tetikleyebilir; g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin bozulmas\u0131 ise yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 yeniden g\u00fcvenli liman ABD dolar\u0131na y\u00f6neltebilir. Tarihsel veriler, ani jeopolitik s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131n NZD\/USD z\u0131mni volatilitesini saatler i\u00e7inde %15\u2013%20 art\u0131rabildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor; bu da volatilite korumas\u0131n\u0131 kritik hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Kiwi \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131yor: Zay\u0131f \u00c7in PMI\u2019\u0131na ra\u011fmen NZD\/USD 0,5890\u20130,5900\u2019da tutundu. RBNZ\u2019de \u015fahin faiz fiyatlamas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken odak ABD ISM ve ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinde; opsiyonlarla 0,6050 hedefi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50135,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52223","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t