AUD\/JPY, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc 111,20 civar\u0131na do\u011fru g\u00f6r\u00fclen k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli y\u00fckseli\u015fin ard\u0131ndan be\u015finci seansta da geri \u00e7ekilmesini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek Asya i\u015flemlerinde Nisan ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeye indi. Parite en son 110,00 b\u00f6lgesi yak\u0131n\u0131nda, g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %0,50\u2019nin \u00fczerinde ekside seyrederken, ge\u00e7en hafta Haziran ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclen en y\u00fcksek seviyeden kaydedilen sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmaya devam etti.<\/p>\n\n
Hareket, yenin resmi ad\u0131mlar ve politika sinyalleriyle g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle geldi. Japonya Maliye Bakan\u0131 Satsuki Katayama, yetkililerin JPY\u2019deki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 dizginlemek i\u00e7in Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD ile nadir g\u00f6r\u00fclen ikili bir d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131 m\u00fcdahalesi ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fini s\u00f6ylerken, ABD Hazine Bakan\u0131 Scott Bessent de d\u00fczensiz hareketlerin s\u00fcrmesi halinde Washington\u2019\u0131n ilave koordineli ad\u0131mlara kat\u0131labilece\u011fini ifade etti. BoJ, Temmuz sonundaki toplant\u0131s\u0131nda \u015fahin e\u011filimini korudu ve bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerini art\u0131rmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeye haz\u0131r oldu\u011funa i\u015faret etti. Bu arada AUD, piyasalar\u0131n yak\u0131n vadede bir RBA faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerini azaltmas\u0131 ve \u00c7in\u2019in RatingDog \u0130malat PMI verisinin beklentileri kar\u015f\u0131lamamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan zay\u0131flad\u0131. Avustralya\u2019da y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon %3,5\u2019ten %3,6\u2019ya y\u00fckselse de %3,7\u2019lik piyasa beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; y\u0131l i\u00e7inde \u00fc\u00e7 RBA faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan man\u015fet enflasyondaki zay\u0131flama da dikkat \u00e7ekti. Ayr\u0131ca BoJ\u2019un Eyl\u00fcl gibi erken bir tarihte 25 baz puanl\u0131k olas\u0131 bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na gidebilece\u011fine y\u00f6nelik spek\u00fclasyonlar da g\u00fc\u00e7 kazand\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Paritenin kritik 110,00 psikolojik deste\u011finin alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131yla birlikte, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n AUD\/JPY \u00e7apraz\u0131nda derhal ay\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc stratejilere d\u00f6nmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Koordineli m\u00fcdahaleler tarihsel olarak carry trade pozisyonlar\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck ve \u00e7ok haftaya yay\u0131lan \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmeleri tetikler; bu durum, 2024\u2019teki yen rallisinde Japon para biriminin birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda %10\u2019un \u00fczerinde de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131na benzer. Eyl\u00fcl 2026 vadeli, paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) AUD\/JPY sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n almak, tan\u0131ml\u0131 riskle bu h\u0131zlanan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumu yakalamam\u0131za olanak tan\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n
ABD ve Japon yetkililerin ortak \u00e7abas\u0131, \u00f6zellikle yen paritelerinde ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n y\u00fckseldi\u011fi bir ortamda carry-trade al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in ciddi kuyruk riski yarat\u0131yor. Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Eyl\u00fcl 2026\u2019da 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na i\u015faret etmesiyle, daha \u00f6nce Avustralya Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 destekleyen faiz fark\u0131 h\u0131zla daral\u0131yor. Artan oynakl\u0131ktan yararlanmak i\u00e7in ay\u0131 put spreadleri kullan\u0131labilir; bu yap\u0131 hem spot fiyat\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesinden hem de y\u00fckselen opsiyon primlerinden fayda sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n\n
Paritenin di\u011fer taraf\u0131nda ise Avustralya\u2019da enflasyonun yumu\u015famas\u0131\u2014\u00e7ekirdek T\u00dcFE\u2019nin beklentilerdeki %3,7\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 %3,6\u2019da kalmas\u0131\u2014RBA\u2019n\u0131n faiz art\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 olduk\u00e7a d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Buna ek olarak, \u00c7in\u2019de imalat taraf\u0131ndaki yava\u015flama Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n ihracat g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc do\u011frudan olumsuz etkileyerek Avustralya dolar\u0131n\u0131 daha da bask\u0131l\u0131yor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in, AUD\/JPY vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa pozisyon almak veya 111,20 diren\u00e7 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde call spread satmak, risk-getiri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olduk\u00e7a elveri\u015fli bir tablo sunuyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" AUD\/JPY Nisan ba\u015f\u0131ndan beri dipte: Yen, ABD-Japon koordineli m\u00fcdahale sinyalleri ve BoJ \u015fahinli\u011fiyle g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. AUD ise zay\u0131f enflasyon\/\u00c7in PMI ile bask\u0131da; 110 alt\u0131 ay\u0131 opsiyonlar\u0131 g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50026,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52222","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t