\u00c7in\u2019in Caixin imalat PMI\u2019\u0131 temmuzda 50,9\u2019a gerileyerek 51,5\u2019lik piyasa beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Endeks, geni\u015fleme ile daralmay\u0131 ay\u0131ran 50 e\u015fi\u011finin \u00fczerinde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc; bu da sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye devam etti\u011fini, ancak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclenden daha yava\u015f bir tempoda ilerledi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n
Beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kalan bu veri, bir \u00f6nceki ay seviyelerine k\u0131yasla ivme kayb\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor ve yak\u0131n vadeli fabrika \u00fcretimine y\u00f6nelik beklentileri t\u00f6rp\u00fcleyebilir. Endeksin h\u00e2l\u00e2 geni\u015fleme b\u00f6lgesinde olmas\u0131, toparlanma h\u0131z\u0131ndaki yava\u015flamaya ra\u011fmen temel aktivitenin dayan\u0131kl\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in\u2019in temmuz imalat PMI\u2019\u0131n\u0131n 51,5\u2019lik projeksiyona kar\u015f\u0131 50,9 ile beklentiyi kar\u015f\u0131layamamas\u0131, k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme alg\u0131s\u0131 \u00fczerinde k\u0131sa vadede a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yaratacakt\u0131r. D\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u201cimalat motorundaki\u201d bu yava\u015flama, son d\u00f6nemdeki kamu m\u00fcdahalelerine ra\u011fmen i\u00e7 talebin zay\u0131f seyrini korudu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, piyasalar\u0131n bu ekonomik so\u011fumay\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131yla birlikte \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda \u00c7in duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek varl\u0131klarda artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekir.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak, \u00c7in\u2019de imalat ivmesindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sanayi metalleri fiyatlar\u0131nda gerilemeyle g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde korelasyon g\u00f6sterir; bak\u0131r fiyatlar\u0131, belirgin bir PMI sapmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan gelen haftalarda \u00e7o\u011fu zaman %2 ile %4 aras\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kaydeder. K\u00fcresel talep beklentileri so\u011furken bak\u0131r ve Brent petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Ayr\u0131ca Avustralya Dolar\u0131 gibi emtia a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 para birimlerinde, ABD Dolar\u0131 (Greenback) kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda sat\u0131m opsiyonu stratejileri y\u00fcksek olas\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 bir kurgu sunuyor.<\/p>\n
Hisse senedi t\u00fcrevlerinde de, \u00f6zellikle iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) \u00fczerinde yak\u0131n vadeli sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n tercih edilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Ge\u00e7mi\u015f piyasa d\u00f6ng\u00fcleri, \u00c7in\u2019de sanayi geni\u015flemesi yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda Hang Seng Endeksi\u2019nin s\u0131kl\u0131kla daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck destek seviyelerini test etti\u011fini ve \u00e7o\u011fu zaman iki hafta i\u00e7inde %3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde de\u011fer kaybedebildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Mevcut uzun (long) hisse portf\u00f6ylerinin bu t\u00fcr d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc yap\u0131larla hedge edilmesi, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Sabit getirili tarafta ise bu zay\u0131f veri, daha derin bir yava\u015flamay\u0131 \u00f6nlemek amac\u0131yla \u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (PBoC) daha agresif parasal gev\u015femeye gitme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Faiz indirimlerinin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde g\u00fcndeme gelmesiyle getirilerin d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi beklentisi do\u011frultusunda \u00c7in 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k devlet tahvili vadeli i\u015flemlerinde uzun (long) pozisyon al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. USD\/CNH al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131yla Yuan\u2019da zay\u0131flama senaryosuna konumlanmak da, beklenen para politikas\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131yla uyumlu bir strateji olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" \u00c7in Caixin imalat PMI temmuzda 50,9\u2019a inerek beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131 m\u0131? Hay\u0131r: 51,5\u2019in alt\u0131nda. B\u00fcy\u00fcme s\u00fcrse de ivme zay\u0131f; metaller, Brent, AUD ve \u00c7in hisselerinde hedge; tahvil long, USD\/CNH call \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49981,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52219","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t