USD\/JPY, pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinin erken saatlerinde 155,45 civar\u0131na gerileyerek 6 May\u0131s\u2019tan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Bu hareket, Japon yenine talebin, Japonya ve ABD\u2019nin yeni bir koordineli ad\u0131m att\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair haberlerin ard\u0131ndan artmas\u0131yla geldi. Bloomberg\u2019in aktard\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re, Japonya Maliye Bakan\u0131 Satsuki Katayama ile ABD Hazine Bakan\u0131 Scott Bessent, para birimini onlarca y\u0131ld\u0131r g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7ekte desteklemek \u00fczere birlikte \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Katayama, cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Washington ile koordineli yen al\u0131m m\u00fcdahalesi ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirildi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi ve ilave d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131 ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n da masada oldu\u011funu belirtti. Bessent, ortak hamlelerin yen taraf\u0131ndaki d\u00fczensiz dalgalanmalar\u0131 dizginlemeye yard\u0131mc\u0131 oldu\u011funu ifade ederken, Hazine\u2019nin Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 ile yak\u0131n temas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fini ekledi. Ayr\u0131 olarak, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n en \u00fcst d\u00fczey d\u00f6viz yetkilisi Atsushi Mimura, ortak m\u00fcdahalenin ikili kur ortakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n zirvesini temsil edebilece\u011fini s\u00f6ylerken; Reuters\u2019\u0131n aktard\u0131\u011f\u0131 Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 verileri, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc 58,97 milyar dolara kadar yen alm\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
ABD-Japonya ortak m\u00fcdahalelerinin pariteyi 155,45 seviyesine itmesinin ard\u0131ndan, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131na USD\/JPY\u2019de a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Japonya\u2019n\u0131n tek bir g\u00fcnde yakla\u015f\u0131k 59 milyar dolar harcad\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki haberler dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, k\u0131sa vadeli opsiyon primleri h\u0131zla y\u00fckseliyor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, korunmas\u0131z y\u00f6nsel pozisyonlardan ka\u00e7\u0131nmal\u0131; bunun yerine d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ivmesinden yararlanmak i\u00e7in ay\u0131 put spread\u2019leri gibi tan\u0131ml\u0131 riskli opsiyon stratejilerini kullanmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Tarihe bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ortak m\u00fcdahaleler son derece g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fcd\u00fcr. Nitekim Haziran 1998\u2019de ABD-Japonya koordineli ad\u0131m\u0131 USD\/JPY\u2019de h\u0131zl\u0131 bir %10 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc tetiklemi\u015fti. ABD Hazine Bakan\u0131 Scott Bessent ile Japonya Maliye Bakan\u0131 Satsuki Katayama\u2019n\u0131n bu koordineli hamlesi, parite i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u201ctavan\u201d olu\u015fturuldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu koordineli politika duru\u015funa kar\u015f\u0131 i\u015flem yapman\u0131n, bireysel y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar (retail bulls) i\u00e7in fazla riskli oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcndeyiz.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, m\u00fcdahale kaynakl\u0131 ilave d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri yakalamak i\u00e7in vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) JPY al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n (USD\/JPY d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan) al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Vadeli i\u015flemler taraf\u0131nda ise, Tokyo\u2019dan gelebilecek ani bir a\u00e7\u0131klaman\u0131n an\u0131nda y\u00fczlerce piplik hareketlere yol a\u00e7abilmesi nedeniyle s\u0131k\u0131 iz s\u00fcren stoplar\u0131n (trailing stop) kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 kritik \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor. Z\u0131mni volatilite e\u011fimini (implied volatility skew) izlemek gerekiyor; zira USD\/JPY\u2019de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc korunmaya d\u00f6n\u00fck talebin y\u00fcksek seyretmesi muhtemel.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca tahvil piyasas\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli; ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131klar\u0131 ile Japon devlet tahvilleri aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131 uzun vadeli trendi h\u00e2l\u00e2 belirliyor. Tarihsel olarak %3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerindeki getiri fark\u0131 yeni bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda tutuyor; bu da k\u00fcresel faizler d\u00fc\u015fmedik\u00e7e bu m\u00fcdahalenin yaln\u0131zca zaman kazand\u0131rabilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, k\u0131sa vadeli politika kaynakl\u0131 oynakl\u0131k ile uzun vadeli ekonomik ger\u00e7eklikler aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131 i\u015flemlemek i\u00e7in takvim spread\u2019lerini (calendar spreads) kullanabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" USD\/JPY 155,45\u2019e inerek 6 May\u0131s diplerini g\u00f6rd\u00fc: ABD-Japonya koordineli yen al\u0131m\u0131 ve 59 milyar $\u2019a varan m\u00fcdahale iddias\u0131 volatiliteyi art\u0131rd\u0131; opsiyonlarda ay\u0131 put spreadi, OTM JPY call ve s\u0131k\u0131 trailing stop \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50190,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52212","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t