WTI ham petrol, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir bo\u015flukla (gap) a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan bir miktar toparlansa da, pazartesi Asya saatlerinde seans genelinde yakla\u015f\u0131k %7 ekside kalarak varil ba\u015f\u0131na 79,30 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Hareket, ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n cumartesi gecesi Truth Social\u2019da payla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve \u0130ran ile di\u011fer Orta Do\u011fu \u00fclkelerinin bir anla\u015fmay\u0131 sonu\u00e7land\u0131rmak i\u00e7in daha fazla s\u00fcre talep etti\u011fini belirten mesaj\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geldi; payla\u015f\u0131mda anla\u015fman\u0131n bo\u011faz\u0131 derhal yeniden a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131 ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer tehdidini ortadan kald\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 ifade edildi.<\/p>\n\n
Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc yay\u0131mlanan deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fcncellemeleri kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k bir tabloya i\u015faret etti: Suudi petrol\u00fc ta\u015f\u0131yan iki tanker hafta sonu Bab\u00fclmendep Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz\u2019den \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yaparken, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n gemilere y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131 haberleri sonras\u0131 keskin bi\u00e7imde yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k Deniz Ticareti Operasyonlar\u0131 (UKMTO), cumartesiden bu yana \u00fc\u00e7 ek tanker sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frulad\u0131. \u00d6te yandan, b\u00fcy\u00fck OPEC+ \u00fcreticileri \u00fcretim kotalar\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir art\u0131\u015f\u0131 onaylayarak 2023\u2019te devreye al\u0131nan arz kesintilerinin planl\u0131 \u015fekilde geri al\u0131nmas\u0131 s\u00fcrecini tamamlad\u0131 ve Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde ilave \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na alan b\u0131rakt\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
WTI ham petrol\u00fcn 79,30 dolara gerileyerek %7 d\u00fc\u015fmesi ile Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki fiziksel risklerin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 aras\u0131nda belirgin bir kopukluk g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u0130yimser sosyal medya payla\u015f\u0131mlar\u0131 piyasay\u0131 ge\u00e7ici olarak sakinle\u015ftirmi\u015f olsa da, fiili sevkiyat verileri ve f\u00fcze sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131, yak\u0131n vadede arzda aksama riskine i\u015faret ediyor. T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, bu yapay d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc WTI al\u0131m opsiyonu (call) sat\u0131n alarak de\u011ferlendirmesini ve \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda sert bir fiyat toparlanmas\u0131 beklemesini \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Jeopolitik \u015foklar, tarihsel olarak petrol oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck s\u0131\u00e7ramalara yol a\u00e7ar; 2019\u2019daki Suudi rafineri sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 ve 2024\u2019te K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz\u2019deki gerilim t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f\u0131nda petrol z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n (implied volatility) d\u00fczenli olarak %40\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 buna \u00f6rnektir. Kritik deniz ticaret g\u00fczerg\u00e2hlar\u0131 aktif \u0130HA ve f\u00fcze sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131yla tehdit alt\u0131ndayken, opsiyon primleri ani bir arz s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ger\u00e7ek riskini oldu\u011fundan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatl\u0131yor olabilir. Piyasa hangi y\u00f6ne hareket ederse etsin bu ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz fiyat sal\u0131n\u0131mlar\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in uzun straddle stratejisi kurulmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
OPEC+ 2023 \u00fcretim kesintilerini geri getirmeyi planlasa da, bu ek variller H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 gibi darbo\u011fazlar\u0131 kolayca by-pass edemez; H\u00fcrm\u00fcz tarihsel olarak g\u00fcnde 20 milyon varilden fazla petrol\u00fc, yani k\u00fcresel t\u00fcketimin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sini ta\u015f\u0131r. Bu fiziksel darbo\u011faz, ilave arz\u0131n muhtemelen yolda \u201cmahsur\u201d kalaca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelir ve k\u0131sa vadeli vadeli i\u015flemler (futures) i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir y\u00fckseli\u015f senaryosunu destekler. B\u00f6lgesel \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n t\u0131rmanmas\u0131yla olu\u015fan y\u00fcksek yukar\u0131 potansiyeli yakalarken a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in, call spread\u2019ler \u00fczerinden net uzun (net-long) pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" \u015eok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f: WTI %7 kay\u0131pla 79,30 dolarda. Trump\u2019\u0131n anla\u015fma mesaj\u0131 fiyat\u0131 bast\u0131rsa da H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019de ak\u0131\u015f \u00e7\u00f6kt\u00fc, tanker sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 artt\u0131. OPEC+ art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yetmez; opsiyonla y\u00fckseli\u015f hedefleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50003,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52201","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t