USD\/JPY, pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya\u2019n\u0131n erken saatlerinde yakla\u015f\u0131k 157,65 seviyesine y\u00fckselerek \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f serisini sonland\u0131rd\u0131. Piyasalar, ABD ve Japonya\u2019n\u0131n olas\u0131 yeni ortak d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalesine kar\u015f\u0131 teyakkuzda kal\u0131rken, ge\u00e7en hafta Tokyo ve New York\u2019ta y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclen koordineli i\u015flemlerin ard\u0131ndan Japonya, ABD ile 15 y\u0131l aradan sonra ilk ortak m\u00fcdahalesini teyit etti. Bloomberg ise Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile ABD Hazine Bakan\u0131 Scott Bessent\u2019in, onlarca y\u0131ld\u0131r g\u00f6r\u00fclmeyen \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde koordinasyon i\u00e7inde oldu\u011funu bildirdi.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik ba\u015fl\u0131klar da g\u00fcndemin \u00fcst s\u0131ralar\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki belirsizli\u011fin, Japon Yeni kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 destekleyici oldu\u011fu de\u011ferlendiriliyor. Donald Trump, Tahran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131 konusunda \u201ch\u0131zla\u201d anla\u015fmaya var\u0131lmas\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n tamamen yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 beklentisiyle \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik planlanan sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 iptal etti. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Mehr haber ajans\u0131, yetkililerin \u201cara\u201d talep ettikleri iddias\u0131n\u0131 reddetti\u011fini ve silahl\u0131 kuvvetlerin y\u00fcksek alarm seviyesinde oldu\u011funu aktard\u0131. \u00d6te yandan, Yen\u2019in uzun vadeli seyrinde BoJ politikalar\u0131 belirleyici oldu; 2013-2024 d\u00f6nemindeki a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 gev\u015fek duru\u015f para birimini bask\u0131larken, 2024\u2019te ba\u015flayan kademeli normalle\u015fme ABD-Japonya 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri fark\u0131n\u0131 daraltmaya ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, halihaz\u0131rda 157,65 civar\u0131nda seyreden USD\/JPY paritesinde a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. ABD Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile Japonya Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n aktif \u015fekilde koordinasyon i\u00e7inde olmas\u0131, ani ve ortak piyasa m\u00fcdahalesi riskini son y\u0131llar\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine ta\u015f\u0131yor. Bu da, standart trend takip stratejilerinin bir gecede ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilecek b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli resmi sermaye ak\u0131mlar\u0131yla kolayl\u0131kla bozulabilece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu riski somutla\u015ft\u0131rmak gerekirse, Japonya 2024 ortas\u0131ndaki m\u00fcdahalelerinde rekor 9,8 trilyon yen (yakla\u015f\u0131k 62 milyar dolar) harcad\u0131 ve bu ad\u0131mlar pariteyi h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekerek yenin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine yol a\u00e7t\u0131. ABD Hazine Bakan\u0131 Scott Bessent ile Japonya Maliye Bakan\u0131 Satsuki Katayama aras\u0131nda benzeri g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015f bir i\u015f birli\u011fi g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda at\u0131labilecek olas\u0131 bir ortak ad\u0131m USD\/JPY\u2019de daha sert bir geri \u00e7ekilmeyi tetikleyebilir. Bu nedenle opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n, agresif ve devlet destekli d\u00fczeltmelere kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) JPY al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 (USD\/JPY sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131) de\u011ferlendirmesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
\u0130ma edilen volatilite y\u00fckseldi\u011fi ve standart opsiyonlar\u0131 daha pahal\u0131 hale getirdi\u011fi i\u00e7in, prim maliyetlerini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek amac\u0131yla spread stratejilerinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n ayr\u0131ca Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki son derece \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemez jeopolitik tabloyu yak\u0131ndan izlemesi gerekiyor; ani t\u0131rmanmalar, g\u00fcvenli liman ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcratle yeniden ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na y\u00f6nlendirebilir. Pozisyon boyutlar\u0131n\u0131 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck tutarak ve k\u0131sa vadeli vadeli i\u015flemlerde s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes seviyeleri kullanarak, y\u00fcksek riskli bu i\u015flem ortam\u0131nda dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131k art\u0131r\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" USD\/JPY 157,65\u2019e toparland\u0131; ancak as\u0131l oyun m\u00fcdahale riskinde. Japonya-ABD 15 y\u0131l sonra ortak hamleyi teyit ederken, Ortado\u011fu belirsizli\u011fi oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor; opsiyonda OTM JPY call ve spreadler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50148,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52197","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t