Donald Trump, Tahran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131 konusunda \u201ch\u0131zl\u0131\u201d \u015fekilde anla\u015fmaya var\u0131lmas\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n tamamen yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 ihtimalini gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6stererek, ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik yeni sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 \u015fimdilik ba\u015flatmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Trump, muhtemelen arabulucular \u00fczerinden \u0130ran\u2019la m\u00fczakerelerin pazartesi ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti ve cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc \u201cb\u00fcy\u00fck bir sald\u0131r\u0131\u201d olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi\u011fi harek\u00e2t\u0131 iptal etti\u011fini dile getirdi. Trump ayr\u0131ca Suudi Arabistan, BAE, Katar ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n dahil oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin karar\u0131nda etkili oldu\u011funu, Bo\u011faz\u2019\u0131n y\u00f6netimi ve \u0130ran\u2019da n\u00fckleer silahs\u0131zlanma konusunda anla\u015fmalar\u0131n beklendi\u011fini kaydetti.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Abbas Araghchi, pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc Telegram \u00fczerinden yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada, \u0130ran ile Umman aras\u0131ndaki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin son a\u015famada oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Araghchi, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na k\u0131y\u0131s\u0131 olan iki \u00fclkenin Bo\u011faz \u00fczerinden yeni bir g\u00fczerg\u00e2h\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc, ancak m\u00fczakerelerin su yolunun kapat\u0131l\u0131p a\u00e7\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 konusunu ele almad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade etti. Ayr\u0131 olarak, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n yar\u0131 resmi Mehr haber ajans\u0131, Tahran\u2019\u0131n Washington\u2019dan ilave askeri eylemleri durdurmas\u0131n\u0131 istedi\u011fi iddias\u0131n\u0131 yalanlad\u0131. Axios, pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc Suudi Veliaht Prensi Muhammed bin Selman\u2019\u0131n Trump\u2019\u0131 ilave sald\u0131r\u0131lardan ka\u00e7\u0131nmaya \u00e7a\u011f\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi; Suudi devlet haber ajans\u0131 da Veliaht Prens\u2019in gerilimi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in diyalog \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu\u011funu aktard\u0131.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik gerilimlerin hassas bir dengede seyretmesi nedeniyle enerji t\u00fcrevlerinde son derece oynak bir ortam g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. ABD, \u0130ran ve b\u00f6lgesel arabulucular aras\u0131nda bu pazartesi ba\u015flamas\u0131 planlanan m\u00fczakereler \u00f6ncesinde, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinde sert ve ani fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekiyor. Piyasan\u0131n ilk etapta ge\u00e7ici bir rahatlama hissini fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz; ancak Tahran kaynakl\u0131 temel \u015f\u00fcphecilik nedeniyle ani riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131n\u0131 d\u0131\u015flayamay\u0131z.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131, g\u00fcnde yakla\u015f\u0131k 20 milyon varil petrol ta\u015f\u0131maya devam ederek k\u00fcresel s\u0131v\u0131 petrol t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019sini olu\u015fturuyor. Tarihsel olarak, kapanmaya y\u00f6nelik k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck tehditler bile Cboe Ham Petrol Oynakl\u0131k Endeksi\u2019nin (OVX) birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %30\u2019un \u00fczerinde s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Umman ve \u0130ran olas\u0131 bir kapanmay\u0131 g\u00fcndeme almadan ge\u00e7i\u015f g\u00fczerg\u00e2hlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden, opsiyonlarda z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n y\u00fcksek seviyelerde kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n a\u011f\u0131r y\u00f6nsel bahislerden ka\u00e7\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131, bunun yerine a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 hareketleri yakalamak i\u00e7in uzun straddle veya strangle gibi oynakl\u0131k bazl\u0131 stratejilere odaklanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Mevcut portf\u00f6ylerini hedge etmek isteyenler i\u00e7in, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) Brent al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n almak, g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin aniden bozulmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 temkinli bir koruma yoludur. Daha \u00f6nceki Orta Do\u011fu t\u0131rman\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda Brent\u2019in tek bir haftada yakla\u015f\u0131k %10 y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz \u00fczere, opsiyonla korunman\u0131n maliyeti, k\u0131sa pozisyonda yakalanma riskine k\u0131yasla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kal\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Halihaz\u0131rda Brent ham petrol opsiyonlar\u0131ndaki skew, al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131na belirgin bir e\u011filim g\u00f6steriyor; bu da sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n duraklat\u0131lmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen piyasan\u0131n arz kesintilerine ili\u015fkin endi\u015fesinin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. M\u00fczakerelerde somut ilerleme, bu jeopolitik primi h\u0131zla eritebilece\u011finden, k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131m (put) primlerini yak\u0131ndan izlemeliyiz. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ba\u015fl\u0131k riskleriyle ilerlerken, vadeli i\u015flem kontratlar\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131 zarar-kes (stop-loss) seviyeleriyle \u00e7evik kalmak kritik \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Son dakika: Trump, \u0130ran\u2019la \u201ch\u0131zl\u0131 anla\u015fma\u201d ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 umuduyla yeni sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 ask\u0131ya ald\u0131; pazartesi m\u00fczakere sinyali piyasay\u0131 dalgaland\u0131r\u0131yor. Petrol t\u00fcrevlerinde OVX y\u00fcksek; straddle\/strangle, OTM Brent call ve s\u0131k\u0131 stop-loss \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49963,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52195","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t