Son Commitments of Traders (COT) raporu, True US Dollar Index\u2019te a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 bir pozisyonlanmaya i\u015faret ediyor: b\u00fcy\u00fck spek\u00fclat\u00f6rler t\u00fcm zamanlar\u0131n rekor seviyesinde bulunurken, ticari taraf (commercials) 555 raporluk bir u\u00e7 noktada; on y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcredir g\u00f6r\u00fclmeyen bir kombinasyon. Euro ise d\u00f6viz mesaj\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor: hem b\u00fcy\u00fck spek\u00fclat\u00f6rler hem de ticari taraf 334 raporluk bir bo\u011fa u\u00e7 noktas\u0131nda; haftal\u0131k veride alt\u0131 y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n bir d\u00f6nemi kapsayan bu gerilim, geni\u015f dolar \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fctlerindeki y\u00fcksek Euro a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 nedeniyle iki piyasan\u0131n sinyalini birbirine ba\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Di\u011fer tarafta enerji kompleksi, uzun s\u00fcreli u\u00e7 de\u011ferlerden ziyade daha h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fen kaymalar sergiliyor. Brent petrol ve WTI, ortalaman\u0131n \u00fczerinde haftal\u0131k ay\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc COT de\u011fi\u015fimleri kaydederken, k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck spek\u00fclat\u00f6rler her iki kontratta da iyimser kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Do\u011fal gaz ise ters y\u00f6nde hareket ederek enerji grubundaki en net bo\u011fa de\u011fi\u015fim sinyalini verdi; 1995\u2019e uzanan veride be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k pozisyonlanma g\u00f6stergesi bo\u011fa u\u00e7lar\u0131na yak\u0131n. Tar\u0131mda Kansas City bu\u011fday\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fck spek\u00fclat\u00f6rlerde 156 raporluk ay\u0131 u\u00e7 noktas\u0131na ula\u015ft\u0131; yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131la yay\u0131lan bu birikim, i\u015flemin yerle\u015fik mi kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 yoksa kalabal\u0131kla\u015fmaya m\u0131 ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmede fiyat trendini ve olas\u0131 bir dengelenmeyi kritik hale getiriyor.<\/p>\n
A\u011fustos 2026\u2019ya girerken d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131nda emsalsiz bir kurulum g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. True US Dollar Index, b\u00fcy\u00fck spek\u00fclat\u00f6rlerde t\u00fcm zamanlar\u0131n en u\u00e7 seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; ticari korunmac\u0131lar (commercial hedgers) ise 555 raporluk bir u\u00e7 noktaya ula\u015ft\u0131. Bu tablo, mevcut dolar-al\u0131m trendinin tarihsel olarak yoruldu\u011funu ve geri \u00e7ekilmeye kar\u015f\u0131 son derece k\u0131r\u0131lgan hale geldi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 pozisyonlanma, ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin (DXY) son d\u00f6nemde 101-102 band\u0131 \u00e7evresinde seyretmesi ve ilave Fed faiz indirim beklentilerinin bask\u0131s\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131yla birlikte geliyor. Tarihsel olarak ticari taraf\u0131n pozisyonlanmas\u0131 bu t\u00fcr on y\u0131ll\u0131k u\u00e7lara ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00e7o\u011fu zaman ard\u0131ndan \u00e7ok ayl\u0131 bir trend d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc gelir. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda olas\u0131 bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc dolar d\u00fczeltmesine kar\u015f\u0131, uzun-dolar pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 kademeli azaltarak haz\u0131rl\u0131k yapmak gerekir.<\/p>\n
Euro, hem spek\u00fclat\u00f6rlerde hem de ticari tarafta 334 raporluk bo\u011fa u\u00e7 de\u011feriyle bu dolar aleyhine g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde destekliyor. Bu, Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonunun AMB\u2019nin %2 hedefi civar\u0131nda dengelendi\u011fi bir ortamda, Euro\u2019nun son alt\u0131 y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcredeki en anlaml\u0131 bo\u011fa yap\u0131s\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Euro\u2019nun DXY i\u00e7indeki a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 %57,6 oldu\u011fundan, USD g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc kovalamak yerine EUR\/USD\u2019de geri \u00e7ekilmelerde al\u0131m f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 aranmal\u0131.<\/p>\n
Enerji taraf\u0131nda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etmemesi gereken belirgin bir ayr\u0131\u015fma var. Brent ve WTI ham petrolde h\u0131zl\u0131 bir ay\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon kaymas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, zay\u0131f k\u00fcresel talep beklentileri nedeniyle referans ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131 varil ba\u015f\u0131na 75 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde tutunmakta zorlan\u0131yor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k do\u011fal gaz, onlarca y\u0131l \u00f6nce g\u00f6r\u00fclen tarihsel u\u00e7lara yak\u0131n seviyelerde, olduk\u00e7a yap\u0131c\u0131 bir bo\u011fa yap\u0131 in\u015fa ediyor.<\/p>\n
Enerjiyi tek bir blok gibi ele almak yerine bu i\u00e7 ayr\u0131\u015fma \u00fczerinden pozisyon almak daha do\u011fru olur. Ay\u0131 verisi devam ederse petrol rallilerinde k\u0131sa (short) taraf\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmek; buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k fiyat hareketi d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc teyit eder etmez do\u011fal gazda uzun (long) pozisyonlara haz\u0131rlanmak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Burada s\u0131k\u0131 stop-loss kullan\u0131m\u0131 kritik; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc spek\u00fclatif perakende yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar petrolde y\u00fcksek oranda uzun tarafta ve ani bir s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma (squeeze) riski olu\u015fabilir.<\/p>\n
Son olarak Kansas City bu\u011fday\u0131 156 raporluk spek\u00fclatif ay\u0131 u\u00e7 de\u011ferine ula\u015ft\u0131; yani k\u0131sa pozisyonlar son derece kalabal\u0131kla\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. \u00dc\u00e7 y\u0131ll\u0131k bu u\u00e7, tar\u0131msal a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 trendin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretti\u011fini ancak sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n yak\u0131nda ivme kaybedebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Olas\u0131 bir k\u0131sa-kapama (short covering) rallisinin sert bir yukar\u0131 hareketi tetikleyebilece\u011fi dikkate al\u0131narak, fiyat\u0131n dengelenmesine dair i\u015faretler yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" COT alarm veriyor: dolar endeksinde spek\u00fclat\u00f6rler rekor uzun, commercials 555 u\u00e7ta; Euro 334 bo\u011fa u\u00e7la dolar zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 teyit ediyor. Petrol ay\u0131ya d\u00f6nerken gaz g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc, KC bu\u011fday\u0131nda 156 u\u00e7 short-covering riski.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49977,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52193","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t