{"id":52186,"date":"2026-08-01T03:21:44","date_gmt":"2026-08-01T03:21:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/altin-guclenen-hazine-tahvil-getirileri-ve-dolarin-toparlanmasinin-baskisiyla-4-045-dolara-geriledi\/"},"modified":"2026-08-01T03:21:44","modified_gmt":"2026-08-01T03:21:44","slug":"altin-guclenen-hazine-tahvil-getirileri-ve-dolarin-toparlanmasinin-baskisiyla-4-045-dolara-geriledi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/altin-guclenen-hazine-tahvil-getirileri-ve-dolarin-toparlanmasinin-baskisiyla-4-045-dolara-geriledi\/","title":{"rendered":"Alt\u0131n, g\u00fc\u00e7lenen Hazine tahvil getirileri ve dolar\u0131n toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131n bask\u0131s\u0131yla 4.045 dolara geriledi"},"content":{"rendered":"

Alt\u0131n Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131k %1,50 geriledi; XAU\/USD 4.045 dolara inerken, Japon yetkililerin bir g\u00fcn \u00f6nce d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131na m\u00fcdahalesinin ard\u0131ndan ABD Dolar\u0131 toparland\u0131. M\u00fcdahale sonras\u0131nda kur 30 g\u00fcn\u00fcn en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine itildikten sonra yeniden y\u00fckseldi. Metal, 4.100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmay\u0131 ba\u015faramamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan haftay\u0131 %0,11\u2019den fazla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle kapatmaya haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) %0,05 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 99,91\u2019de olsa da, y\u00fckselen ABD Hazine tahvili getirileri k\u00fcl\u00e7e alt\u0131n \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 kurdu; 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri 4,745 ile yakla\u015f\u0131k 7,5 baz puan artt\u0131.<\/p>\n

Makro veriler, 2025 2. \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin 1. \u00e7eyrekteki %2,1\u2019den %1,5 \u00e7\/\u00e7\u2019ye yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterirken, Fed\u2019in faizleri sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u00e7ekirdek PCE enflasyonu y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,4\u2019ten %3,3\u2019e geriledi. Para piyasalar\u0131 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in z\u0131mni olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %60\u2019tan %31\u2019e indirirken, faizlerin sabit kalma ihtimali %70\u2019e yakla\u015ft\u0131. Michigan \u00dcniversitesi\u2019nin Temmuz t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni 54,4\u2019ten 55,2\u2019ye revize edilirken; 1 y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon beklentisi %4,2\u2019de, 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k beklenti %3,3\u2019te kald\u0131. Petrol g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc; WTI varil ba\u015f\u0131na 84,00 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde. Teknik seviyelerde 4.022 dolar, ard\u0131ndan 4.000 ve 3.959 dolar destek; 4.100, 4.165, 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olan 4.185 ve 4.202 dolar ise diren\u00e7 konumunda.<\/p>\n

Dolar ve Tahvil Getirilerindeki Hareketler E\u015fli\u011finde K\u0131sa Vadeli Alt\u0131n \u0130\u015flem Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

Alt\u0131n\u0131n 4.045 dolara gerilemesi ve G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi\u2019nin (RSI) 50\u2019nin alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131yla, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n taktiksel k\u0131sa vadeli \u201cay\u0131\u201d duru\u015fu benimsemesini \u00f6neriyoruz. \u0130lk destek olan 4.022 dolar\u0131 veya psikolojik 4.000 dolar taban\u0131n\u0131 hedefleyen kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131na sahip k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Tarihsel veriler, alt\u0131n 4.100 dolar gibi \u00f6nemli diren\u00e7leri a\u015famad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda deste\u011fe do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmenin olduk\u00e7a olas\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n

ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisini yak\u0131ndan izlemeliyiz; getiri 4,745\u2019e y\u00fckseldi ve \u015fu an alt\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fleri s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. ABD Dolar Endeksi 99,91 ile zay\u0131f seyretse de, bu y\u00fcksek getiriler 4.100 dolar direncinin \u00fczerinde al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu satarak prim toplama stratejisini cazip k\u0131labilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, yap\u0131\u015fkan enflasyonla m\u00fccadelede faizlerin daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131 halinde bizi korur.<\/p>\n

Enflasyon, Petrol ve Merkez Bankalar\u0131n\u0131n Alt\u0131n Al\u0131mlar\u0131: Uzun Vadeli G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm<\/h3>\n

Jeopolitik gerilimlerin WTI ham petrol\u00fc varil ba\u015f\u0131na 84 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde tutmas\u0131, enerji kaynakl\u0131 enflasyonun h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u00f6nemli bir risk oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bu belirsizli\u011fi i\u015flemeye y\u00f6nelik olarak, alt\u0131n 4.000 dolar seviyesini ba\u015far\u0131yla test edip korursa bo\u011fa al\u0131m spread\u2019leri (bull call spreads) kurgulanabilir. Tarihsel olarak y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 kan\u0131tlanm\u0131\u015f bir enflasyondan korunma arac\u0131 olarak yeniden alt\u0131na y\u00f6neltir.<\/p>\n

Ayr\u0131ca k\u00fcresel merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc al\u0131m taban\u0131n\u0131 da unutmamal\u0131y\u0131z: 2023\u2019te 1.030 tondan fazla alt\u0131n sat\u0131n ald\u0131lar ve 2024 ile 2025 boyunca da al\u0131mlar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u015fekilde s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fcler. Bu denli b\u00fcy\u00fck resm\u00ee talep, derin sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n muhtemelen k\u0131sa \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc olaca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. Uzun vadeli portf\u00f6yler i\u00e7in, 3.959 dolar seviyesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmeler uzun vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131yla de\u011ferlendirilmelidir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Alt\u0131nda sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor: XAU\/USD 4.045\u2019e indi; dolar toparlan\u0131rken 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k faiz 4,745\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Fed \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d sinyali verdi. 4.022\/4.000 destek, 4.100 diren\u00e7; k\u0131sa vadede put, \u00fcstte call sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50132,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52186","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t