USD\/JPY, 158,00 ile 161,00 aras\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7 yenlik bir \u201cgidi\u015f-d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u201d hareketi yapt\u0131; Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc dolar \u00fc\u00e7 ayr\u0131 hamlede sat\u0131ld\u0131 ancak bu sat\u0131\u015flar sahiplenilmedi. ABD Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, New York Fed arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla baz\u0131 bankalara olas\u0131 ilave ad\u0131mlar i\u00e7in haz\u0131r olmalar\u0131 talimat\u0131n\u0131 verdi. Parite seans\u0131n sonlar\u0131na do\u011fru 159,00\u2019un hemen alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; g\u00fcn ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131na g\u00f6re yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,5 yen a\u015fa\u011f\u0131dayd\u0131. G\u00fcn i\u00e7i desen; Londra sabah\u0131 158,50 civar\u0131na gerileyip h\u0131zla toparlanma, Hazine ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc 13:15 GMT civar\u0131nda ikinci bir hareket ve New York\u2019ta 158,00 yak\u0131n\u0131nda olu\u015fan daha ge\u00e7 bir dip \u015feklinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Ayr\u0131 olarak, IMF rehberli\u011fi alt\u0131 ay i\u00e7inde \u00fc\u00e7 m\u00fcdahale epizoduna kadar\u0131n\u0131 serbest dalgalanma ile uyumlu g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, art arda \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcn\u00fc tek bir epizot say\u0131yor; Japonya Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 May\u0131s ay\u0131nda, Nisan\u2019\u0131n say\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Kas\u0131m\u2019a kadar iki pencerenin kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n\n
Japonya\u2019n\u0131n rezervleri \u201cyeterli\u201d olarak tan\u0131mland\u0131: toplamda yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,4 trilyon dolar, bunun 1,2 trilyon dolar\u0131n biraz alt\u0131 d\u00f6viz varl\u0131klar\u0131. Nisan\u2013May\u0131s d\u00f6nemi kampanyas\u0131 bir ayda yakla\u015f\u0131k 74 milyar dolar seviyesinde seyretti. Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc operasyon, merkez bankas\u0131 hesap verilerine g\u00f6re yakla\u015f\u0131k 53 milyar dolar olarak tahmin edildi; GSYH y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f %1,5 (beklenti %2,1) geldikten sonra bir saat i\u00e7inde USD\/JPY\u2019yi 163,00 seviyesinden 158,00\u2019in hemen alt\u0131na indirdi. Bu hareket, 11,65 milyar dolarl\u0131k raporlanan net k\u0131sa yen pozisyonlar\u0131 ortam\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. BoJ daha sonra 8\u2019e 1 oyla faizi %1,00\u2019de sabit tutarken, ABD\u2019de \u00fcst bant %3,75 olarak an\u0131ld\u0131. Paritede ABD\u2019nin son do\u011frudan operasyonu Mart 2011\u2019de ESF ile Fed portf\u00f6y\u00fc aras\u0131nda b\u00f6l\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u00fclen 1 milyar dolard\u0131; 2025 sonu itibar\u0131yla ESF net pozisyonu 43,6 milyar dolard\u0131. \u00d6nemli teknik i\u015faretler aras\u0131nda 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n 161,50\u2019nin hemen alt\u0131nda, 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n ise 158,00 civar\u0131nda oldu\u011fu belirtildi; di\u011fer seviyeler 163,00, 164,00\u2019\u00fcn hemen alt\u0131, 155,00 ve 152,00. \u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan veriler: Pazartesi 14:00 GMT imalat anketi (beklenti 54); \u00c7ar\u015famba \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131 75 bin (\u00f6nceki\/kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma 98 bin); ve 7 A\u011fustos Cuma 12:30 GMT NFP\u2019nin 91 bin (57 bin), i\u015fsizlik %4,3 (%4,2) ve kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n ayl\u0131k %0,3 gelmesi bekleniyor. Vadeli fiyatlamalar 16 Eyl\u00fcl \u00f6ncesinde yakla\u015f\u0131k %59 olas\u0131l\u0131kla en az bir art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n\n
A\u011fustos 2026\u2019ya girerken, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n USD\/JPY paritesinde artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekiyor; parite k\u0131sa s\u00fcre \u00f6nce 158,00 ile 161,00 aras\u0131nda sert dalgaland\u0131. 161,50 civar\u0131ndaki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcssel Hareketli Ortalama (EMA) y\u00fckseli\u015fleri s\u0131n\u0131rlamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc m\u00fcddet\u00e7e USD\/JPY\u2019de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc (bearish) e\u011filimin korunmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. New York Fed destekli oldu\u011fundan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde \u015f\u00fcphelenilen, \u201cgizli\u201d ve isimsiz bir al\u0131c\u0131n\u0131n varl\u0131\u011f\u0131; ilave, keskin ve \u00f6nceden duyurulmam\u0131\u015f dolar sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, son d\u00f6nemde iki testi de kar\u015f\u0131lam\u0131\u015f olan 158,00 civar\u0131ndaki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019daki kritik destek seviyesine odaklanmal\u0131. Bu 158,00 taban\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda teyitli bir g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f, 155,00 band\u0131na do\u011fru h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmeyi tetikleyebilir; bu da k\u0131sa vadeli put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 cazip k\u0131lar. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, parite 161,50 \u00fczerinde g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f yapmay\u0131 ba\u015far\u0131rsa bu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015ften vazge\u00e7ilmelidir; zira bu, piyasan\u0131n Tokyo\u2019nun \u201cbl\u00f6f\u00fcn\u00fc\u201d ba\u015far\u0131yla g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret eder.<\/p>\n\n
Tokyo\u2019nun, tarihsel olarak b\u00fcy\u00fck ve ani hamleler yapma emsali dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 sermaye ile piyasalar\u0131 oynatma kapasitesi g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilmemeli. Perspektif i\u00e7in: Japonya Nisan ve May\u0131s 2024 m\u00fcdahale kampanyas\u0131nda rekor 9,8 trilyon yen (yakla\u015f\u0131k 62 milyar dolar) harcad\u0131; bu da hem iradeye hem de m\u00fchimmata sahip olduklar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. IMF kurallar\u0131 alt\u0131nda art arda g\u00fcnlerde yap\u0131lan i\u015flemlerin tek bir \u201colay\u201d say\u0131lmas\u0131 sayesinde Tokyo, 1,4 trilyon dolarl\u0131k d\u00f6viz rezervlerini t\u00fcketmeden piyasay\u0131 belirsizlikte tutabilir ve hatt\u0131 savunabilir.<\/p>\n\n
Yakla\u015fan ekonomik takvim, bu psikolojik oyunun nihai testi i\u015flevini g\u00f6recek; ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 bu Pazartesi a\u00e7\u0131klanacak imalat verileri. \u00d6zellikle 7 A\u011fustos Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fcne odaklan\u0131yoruz; ABD tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam (NFP) ve i\u015fsizlik verileri a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. Fed bu ay toplant\u0131 yapmad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, yakla\u015fan i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc raporlar\u0131 faiz indirimi fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde etkileyecek ve daralan faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n yenin toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcp s\u00fcrd\u00fcremeyece\u011fini belirleyecek.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" USD\/JPY\u2019de sert \u201cgidi\u015f-d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u201d alarm\u0131: 158-161 band\u0131nda \u00fc\u00e7 hamleyle dolar sat\u0131\u015f\u0131, New York Fed haz\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve olas\u0131 gizli m\u00fcdahale sinyali. 158 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 155 g\u00fcndemde; kritik NFP bekleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50091,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52178","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t