Richmond Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Tom Barkin, The Wall Street Journal\u2019a verdi\u011fi r\u00f6portaja g\u00f6re, mevcut faiz seviyesinin enflasyonu Fed\u2019in %2 hedefin\u0259 geri d\u00f6nd\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in yeterince k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 belirsiz oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Barkin ayr\u0131ca, bu haftaki toplant\u0131da 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 lehine muhalefet eden \u00fc\u00e7 politika yap\u0131c\u0131ya kat\u0131l\u0131p kat\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131ndan emin olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da ifade etti.<\/p>\n
Fed faizleri de\u011fi\u015fmeden b\u0131rak\u0131rken, Guvern\u00f6rler Lorie Logan, Beth Hammack ve Neel Kashkari derhal bir art\u0131\u015ftan yana g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f bildirdi. Barkin, faizlerin yeterince y\u00fcksek olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesini \u201cs\u0131n\u0131rda bir karar\u201d olarak niteledi; i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131n anlaml\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde g\u00fc\u00e7lenip g\u00fc\u00e7lenmedi\u011fini sorgulad\u0131 ve fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n ekonomi geneline e\u015fit olmayan \u015fekilde yay\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Federal Reserve i\u00e7indeki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, y\u00fcksek politika belirsizli\u011fi d\u00f6nemine girdi\u011fimizi g\u00f6steriyor. \u00dc\u00e7 kilit politika yap\u0131c\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131k bi\u00e7imde faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 talep etmesi, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmay\u0131 bitirdi\u011fini varsayamayaca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z anlam\u0131na geliyor. Portf\u00f6ylerimizi, faizlerin piyasan\u0131n h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda bekledi\u011finden daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalabilece\u011fi ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i riskine kar\u015f\u0131 haz\u0131rlamal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/p>\n
Son ekonomik veriler de bu temkinli duru\u015fu destekliyor: \u00e7ekirdek Ki\u015fisel T\u00fcketim Harcamalar\u0131 (PCE) fiyat endeksi son d\u00f6nemde y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %2,6\u2019da yatay seyrederek hedefin inat\u00e7\u0131 bi\u00e7imde \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. Tarihsel olarak Fed\u2019de bu t\u00fcr \u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc muhalefet g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, tahvil piyasas\u0131 oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirgin \u015fekilde y\u00fckselir. Enflasyonun kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131n zorla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 ge\u00e7mi\u015f d\u00f6ng\u00fclerde de benzer getiri s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; 2022 ve 2023\u2019teki dalgal\u0131 faiz ayarlamalar\u0131 buna \u00f6rnek.<\/p>\n
Bu ortamda ilerlemek i\u00e7in, t\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli \u201cpayer swaption\u201d almas\u0131n\u0131 veya faiz tavan\u0131 (interest rate cap) \u00fcr\u00fcnlerini tercih etmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu ara\u00e7lar, h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,3 seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6ren 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil getirisinin yeniden faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 endi\u015feleriyle s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 durumunda portf\u00f6yleri koruyacakt\u0131r. Yak\u0131n vadede faiz indirimi beklentisine pozisyon almak art\u0131k y\u00fcksek riskli bir kumard\u0131r ve ka\u00e7\u0131nmal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/p>\n
Artan belirsizlikten faydalanmak i\u00e7in MOVE Endeksi\u2019nde uzun pozisyonlara girmek veya VIX al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n almak da de\u011ferlendirilmeli. Fed guvern\u00f6rleri aras\u0131ndaki b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f karar, yakla\u015fan politika toplant\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n son derece \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemez olaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda hem hisse hem de sabit getirili menkul k\u0131ymet t\u00fcrevlerinde sert dalgalanmalar\u0131 do\u011fal olarak tetikleyecektir.<\/p>\n
Son olarak, kal\u0131c\u0131 y\u00fcksek faizlerle desteklenen bir para biriminden faydalanmak i\u00e7in uzun ABD dolar\u0131 opsiyonlar\u0131na a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k vermeliyiz. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, y\u00fcksek kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 ve faize hassas gayrimenkul ile kamu hizmetleri (utilities) t\u00fcrevlerinde pozisyon azalt\u0131lmal\u0131. Fed\u2019in \u015fahin e\u011filimi bu sekt\u00f6rleri en fazla bask\u0131lamaya devam edecektir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Fed\u2019de \u00e7atlak b\u00fcy\u00fcyor: Barkin \u201cfaiz yeterince k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 m\u0131?\u201d sorusunda karars\u0131z. \u00dc\u00e7 \u015fahin art\u0131\u015f istiyor; \u00e7ekirdek PCE %2,6. Piyasada getiriler\/volatilite artabilir; swaption, cap, MOVE\/VIX long, USD opsiyonlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50066,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52175","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t