DJIA, cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 52.500 seviyesinin hemen alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rerek yakla\u015f\u0131k 230 puan y\u00fckseldi ve temmuz ba\u015f\u0131ndaki rekorunun yakla\u015f\u0131k %1,6 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n endeks g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k 52.600\u2019den 52.000\u2019in az da olsa alt\u0131na uzanan yakla\u015f\u0131k 600 puanl\u0131k bir bantta dalgaland\u0131; ard\u0131ndan iki saatten k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede 450 puan\u0131n \u00fczerinde tepki y\u00fckseli\u015fi geldi. Apple, mali 3\u00c7 gelirinin ve iPhone sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda %22\u2019lik art\u0131\u015f\u0131n beklentileri a\u015fmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen yakla\u015f\u0131k %10 geriledi. Amazon ise bulut i\u015f kolunun \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde 2\u00c7 gelirlerinin beklenti \u00fcst\u00fc gelmesi sonras\u0131 %15\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseldi. Endeks fiyat a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in, benzer fiyat seviyelerindeki bile\u015fenlerdeki z\u0131t y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketler b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde birbirini dengeledi; b\u00f6ylece \u00e7eyre\u011fin tek bir hisse taraf\u0131ndaki en b\u00fcy\u00fck bilan\u00e7o ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 ya\u015fanmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n net endeks kazanc\u0131 %0,5\u2019in alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. En b\u00fcy\u00fck yedi teknoloji isminden be\u015fi art\u0131k endeks ortalamas\u0131nda yer al\u0131rken Meta ve Tesla bulunmuyor; k\u0131yas endeksleri aras\u0131ndaki temel ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131c\u0131lar olarak a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kland\u0131rma y\u00f6ntemi ve endeks geni\u015fli\u011fi (breadth) \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
Faiz taraf\u0131nda 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil getirisi 2007\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyelerine yak\u0131n seyretti ve cuma g\u00fcn\u00fcne do\u011fru daha da yukar\u0131 y\u00f6neldi; 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri ise ocak 2025\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyi olan %4,7\u2019nin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, 25 baz puan art\u0131\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde \u00fc\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesel ba\u015fkan\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131 oy kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve 9\u20133 ge\u00e7en \u00fcst \u00fcste be\u015finci \u201cfaizi sabit tutma\u201d karar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan olu\u015ftu. Veriler \u015fahin tarafta geldi: 2\u00c7 \u0130stihdam Maliyeti Endeksi (ECI) %0,9 artarak %0,8\u2019lik beklentiyi a\u015ft\u0131 ve \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyre\u011fe e\u015fitlendi; Chicago PMI 57,6 ile 56 beklentinin \u00fczerinde ve 56,7\u2019den a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 geldi; Michigan \u00dcniversitesi (UoM) g\u00fcven endeksi 55,2 ile 54 beklentinin \u00fczerinde, beklentiler alt endeksi 55,4 ile 54\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde olurken 1 y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon beklentisi %4,2\u2019de, 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon beklentisi %3,3\u2019te kald\u0131. Gelecek hafta ISM imalat (54 beklenti vs 53,3; \u00f6denen fiyatlar 70 vs 73) ve hizmet (54,2 vs 54), \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131 (75 bin vs 98 bin), verimlilik ve birim i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc maliyetleri ile 16 Eyl\u00fcl karar\u0131ndan \u00f6nce 7 A\u011fustos Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam (91 bin vs 57 bin; i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 %4,3 vs %4,2; ortalama saatlik kazan\u00e7lar ayl\u0131k %0,3 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,5) takip edilecek. Teknik seviyeler 52.600 civar\u0131nda ve ard\u0131ndan 53.300\u2019\u00fcn hemen \u00fczerinde diren\u00e7; 52.000 ve ard\u0131ndan 51.800\u2019de destek; 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n 51.600 civar\u0131nda oldu\u011funu i\u015faret etti. Stoch RSI yakla\u015f\u0131k 21 seviyesine yak\u0131nd\u0131, 5 dakikal\u0131k okuma 90\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerindeydi ve 52.000\u2019in alt\u0131nda bir kapan\u0131\u015f y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimini ge\u00e7ersiz k\u0131lacakt\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Dow\u2019daki h\u0131zl\u0131 600 puanl\u0131k g\u00fcn i\u00e7i sal\u0131n\u0131m, endeks 53.300\u2019l\u00fck rekor zirvesine vurucu mesafede kalsa da piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. G\u00fcnl\u00fck Stoch RSI\u2019\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m ko\u015fullar\u0131na i\u015faret etmesi ve 21 seviyesinden yukar\u0131 d\u00f6nmesiyle birlikte, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda dalgalanmalar\u0131n sert kalmas\u0131na haz\u0131rlanmal\u0131y\u0131z. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 olmadan ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen bu ani fiyat d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015flerinden faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli straddle stratejileriyle bu dalgal\u0131 ortam\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n\n
Hisse senetleri diren\u00e7li kalsa da, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD tahvil getirisinin %4,7\u2019nin \u00fczerine t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 ve 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k getirinin \u00e7ok on y\u0131ll\u0131 zirveleri test etmesi tahvil piyasas\u0131n\u0131n uyar\u0131 sinyali verdi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Tarihsel olarak 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k getiri %4,5\u2019in \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, hisse risk primi daral\u0131r ve bunu izleyen haftalarda hisse oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ortalama %15 ila %20\u2019lik ani bir s\u0131\u00e7rama g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr. Bu ayr\u0131\u015fman\u0131n, uzun hisse pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n hedge edilmesini gerektirdi\u011fine inan\u0131yoruz; bu nedenle Dow\u2019da vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) koruyucu put al\u0131mlar\u0131 \u015fu a\u015famada temkinli bir g\u00fcvenlik a\u011f\u0131 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
52.000\u2019deki kritik destek seviyesini yak\u0131ndan izlemeliyiz; bu \u00e7izginin alt\u0131nda g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f, k\u0131sa vadeli y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimimizi ge\u00e7ersiz k\u0131lar ve 51.600 civar\u0131ndaki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019y\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getirir. Yukar\u0131da ise, temmuz sonu boyunca y\u00fckseli\u015fleri s\u0131n\u0131rlayan 52.600 direncine yak\u0131n b\u00f6lgede sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n muhtemelen artmas\u0131 beklenir. Bu bantta i\u015flem yapmak i\u00e7in, 52.000 seviyesinin alt\u0131nda bull put spread kurarak prim toplarken a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131k\u0131 bi\u00e7imde tan\u0131mlamay\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
A\u011fustosta Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131 olmamas\u0131 nedeniyle, yakla\u015fan makro veriler\u2014\u00f6zellikle ISM \u201c\u00f6denen fiyatlar\u201d bile\u015fenleri ile 7 A\u011fustos tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam\u2014piyasan\u0131n bir sonraki ana hareketini belirleyecek. Konsens\u00fcs\u00fcn 91 binlik \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve ortalama saatlik kazan\u00e7larda %3,5 y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, enflasyon taraf\u0131nda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir s\u00fcrpriz getirileri daha da yukar\u0131 iterek hisse senetleri \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratabilir. Bu ikili (binary) sonu\u00e7lara kar\u015f\u0131, veri \u00f6ncesi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatl\u0131 ima edilen oynakl\u0131ktan yararlanmak \u00fczere ucuz, k\u0131sa vadeli opsiyonlar sat\u0131n alarak pozisyonlanmay\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Dow\u2019da 600 puanl\u0131k sert sal\u0131n\u0131m alarm veriyor: Endeks 52.500 alt\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckselirken Amazon ralli, Apple sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle dengeledi. Tahvil getirileri %4,7+; 52.000 kritik, veriler belirleyici.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49967,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52168","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t