AUD\/USD, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD seans\u0131nda 0,7020 civar\u0131nda yatay seyretti. Avustralya Dolar\u0131, yurt i\u00e7i enflasyon beklentilerindeki toparlanmaya ra\u011fmen zay\u0131f \u00c7in faaliyet verilerinin bask\u0131s\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. \u00c7in Ulusal \u0130statistik B\u00fcrosu (NBS), \u0130malat PMI\u2019\u0131n temmuzda 50,3\u2019ten 49,2\u2019ye geriledi\u011fini ve 50,0 beklentisinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. \u0130malat D\u0131\u015f\u0131 PMI ise 50,2\u2019den 49,0\u2019a indi. Avustralya\u2019da \u00dcFE (PPI), 2\u00c7\u2019de y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,0\u2019tan %3,6\u2019ya y\u00fckseldi; ancak bu art\u0131\u015f, \u00c7in kaynakl\u0131 bask\u0131y\u0131 ve g\u00fc\u00e7lenen ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n etkisini telafi etmeye yetmedi.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar\u0131, Dallas Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Lorie Logan\u2019\u0131n politikan\u0131n ekonomiyi k\u0131s\u0131tlamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve enflasyonun Fed\u2019in %2 hedefine d\u00f6nme yolunda olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemesinin ard\u0131ndan da destek buldu. Logan ayr\u0131ca 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015f\u0131 tercih edece\u011fini ekledi. D\u00f6rt saatlik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde AUD\/USD yakla\u015f\u0131k 0,7025 seviyesinde; 0,7000\u2019in hemen alt\u0131ndaki 20 ve 100 periyotluk SMA\u2019lerin \u00fczerinde seyrederken RSI 63 civar\u0131nda. Diren\u00e7ler 0,7039 ve 0,7045\u2019te, destekler ise 0,7025 ve 0,6992\u2019de izleniyor; 20 periyotluk SMA 0,6982, 100 periyotluk SMA ise 0,6980 civar\u0131nda.<\/p>\n
Paritenin kritik 0,7020 seviyesinde oyalanmas\u0131 nedeniyle, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda AUD\/USD\u2019de artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. K\u0131sa vadeli teknik g\u00f6stergeler \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentum g\u00f6sterse de fiyat, 0,7039 ve 0,7045\u2019teki \u00f6nemli diren\u00e7 seviyeleriyle belirgin bi\u00e7imde s\u0131n\u0131rlan\u0131yor. 20 ve 100 periyotluk hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n yak\u0131nsad\u0131\u011f\u0131 0,7000 destek b\u00f6lgesi yak\u0131ndan izlenmeli; bu b\u00f6lgenin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n
Temel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm olduk\u00e7a \u00e7eli\u015fkili; bu da uzun vadeli y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlarda temkinli olunmas\u0131n\u0131 gerektiriyor. \u00c7in\u2019de imalat\u0131n daralma b\u00f6lgesine ge\u00e7mesi ve temmuz PMI\u2019\u0131n 49,2\u2019ye gerilemesi, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ticari entegrasyon nedeniyle tarihsel olarak Avustralya Dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinde belirgin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, Avustralya\u2019da 2\u00c7 \u00dcFE\u2019nin %3,6\u2019ya h\u0131zlanmas\u0131, \u00fcretim hatt\u0131 enflasyonunun yap\u0131\u015fkan kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; bu durum, Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) faizleri y\u00fcksek seviyelerde tutmas\u0131n\u0131 gerektirebilir.<\/p>\n
Bu karma\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011fa ek olarak, Fed yetkililerinin \u015fahin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 a\u011fustosa girerken ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na yeniden ivme kazand\u0131r\u0131yor. Fed politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131 enflasyonun %2 hedefine hen\u00fcz uyumlu bir patikada olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 i\u015faret ederken, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n diren\u00e7li kalmas\u0131 muhtemel. Bu makro ortam, y\u00fcksek ABD faizlerinin Avustralya Dolar\u0131 gibi emtia ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 para birimlerinin yukar\u0131 potansiyelini s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 tarihsel d\u00f6nemlerle benze\u015fiyor.<\/p>\n
Opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in, bu \u00e7eki\u015fmeden faydalanmak amac\u0131yla iron condor gibi bant i\u00e7i stratejilerin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131; s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n 0,6980 deste\u011finin ve 0,7050 direncinin hemen d\u0131\u015f\u0131na yerle\u015ftirilmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Alternatif olarak, y\u00f6nl\u00fc i\u015flem yapanlar\u0131n al\u0131m i\u00e7in 0,7045 \u00fczerinde teyitli bir g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131 (call), ya da sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fc i\u00e7in 0,6980 alt\u0131na sarkmay\u0131 (put) beklemesi uygun olabilir. Piyasan\u0131n bu \u00e7eli\u015fkili ekonomik sinyalleri fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcre\u00e7te pozisyon b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fcklerinin makul tutulmas\u0131 kritik olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" AUD\/USD 0,7020\u2019de s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131: \u00c7in PMI \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fc risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 t\u00f6rp\u00fclerken, \u015fahin Fed ve g\u00fc\u00e7lenen dolar bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. 0,7045 diren\u00e7; 0,7000\/0,6980 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f h\u0131zlanabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50028,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52164","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t