Sterlin Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yatay seyretti; GBP\/USD, %0,02\u2019lik geri \u00e7ekilmenin ard\u0131ndan 1,3458 seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. ABD Dolar\u0131, m\u00fcdahale kaynakl\u0131 sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019ni 30 g\u00fcn\u00fcn en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine itmesinin ard\u0131ndan toparland\u0131. Buna ra\u011fmen Dolar, ABD verilerinin hanehalk\u0131 duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda toparlanmaya i\u015faret etmesine kar\u015f\u0131n haftay\u0131 %1,30\u2019un \u00fczerinde kay\u0131pla kapatmaya haz\u0131rlan\u0131yordu: Michigan \u00dcniversitesi endeksi 54,4\u2019ten 55,2\u2019ye yukar\u0131 revize edilirken, 1 y\u0131ll\u0131k ve 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon beklentileri s\u0131ras\u0131yla %4,2 ve %3,3\u2019te sabit kald\u0131. Ayr\u0131 veriler, ikinci \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ederken, \u00c7ekirdek PCE Haziran\u2019da %0,1 geriledi; piyasalar ise y\u0131l sonuna kadar yaln\u0131zca 23 baz puanl\u0131k s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma fiyatlad\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Fed i\u00e7indeki muhalif \u00fcyeler faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 arg\u00fcmanlar\u0131n\u0131 yineledi; Minneapolis Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Neel Kashkari 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir ad\u0131m\u0131 tercih etti\u011fini belirtti. \u0130ngiltere taraf\u0131nda BoE faizleri de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi ancak s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma alan\u0131n\u0131 korudu; para piyasalar\u0131 y\u0131l sonuna kadar 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Grafiklerde GBP\/USD 1,3469 civar\u0131nda seyrederken, 1,3365 yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki k\u00fcmelenmi\u015f basit hareketli ortalama ve 1,3375\u2019teki eski al\u00e7alan trend \u00e7izgisi taraf\u0131ndan desteklendi; RSI (14) 59 civar\u0131nda bulunurken, daha geni\u015f y\u00fckseli\u015f trendi deste\u011fi en son 1,3289 yak\u0131n\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n\n
Son ABD Dolar\u0131 m\u00fcdahalesinin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 dalgalanman\u0131n etkilerini de\u011ferlendirirken, \u0130ngiliz Sterlini\u2019nin 1,3460 seviyesi yak\u0131n\u0131nda dikkat \u00e7ekici \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde sa\u011flam durdu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Greenback\u2019teki k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli toparlanmaya ra\u011fmen, haftal\u0131k %1,30\u2019u a\u015fan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n bu temel zay\u0131fl\u0131ktan yararlanarak \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda GBP\/USD\u2019de kal\u0131c\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015f trendine pozisyon alabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
GBP\/USD\u2019nin 1,3365\u2019teki kritik deste\u011fin \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde pozitif e\u011filimini korumas\u0131yla, A\u011fustos sonu vadeli 1,3550 kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n tercih edilebilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcndeyiz. Ayr\u0131ca 1,3289 taban\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131ndaki kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131ndan zararda (out-of-the-money) sat\u0131m (put) satmak, bu konsolidasyon d\u00f6neminde prim toplamak i\u00e7in etkili bir y\u00f6ntemdir. Paritede 30 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ima edilen volatilite h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olan %7,2 civar\u0131nda; bu da opsiyon al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fck \u0130ngiltere siyasi k\u0131r\u0131lmalar\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen %9,5\u2019lik tarihsel ortalamaya k\u0131yasla daha ucuz k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
Haziran \u00c7ekirdek PCE\u2019nin %0,1 gerilemesine kar\u015f\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7 muhalifin faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 talep etti\u011fi Fed i\u00e7indeki artan g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da yak\u0131ndan izlemek gerekiyor. Atlantik\u2019in di\u011fer taraf\u0131nda para piyasalar\u0131, BoE\u2019nin y\u0131l sonuna kadar 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na gitme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %70 civar\u0131nda fiyatl\u0131yor. Bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Andy Burnham d\u00f6nemindeki mali belirsizlikle birle\u015fti\u011finde ani ve sert fiyat hareketleri g\u00f6rebilece\u011fimize i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n\n
Risk y\u00f6netimi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, 1,3365 talep b\u00f6lgesinin hemen alt\u0131na savunmac\u0131 bariyerler veya zarar-kes seviyeleri belirlenmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. Trend \u00e7izgisi deste\u011fi olan 1,3289\u2019un alt\u0131na sarkma, bu pozitif senaryoyu ge\u00e7ersiz k\u0131lar ve koruyucu sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelmeyi gerektirir. Bu seviye korunabildi\u011fi s\u00fcrece momentum al\u0131c\u0131larda kalmaya devam ediyor; k\u0131sa vadeli geri \u00e7ekilmeler uzun pozisyon biriktirmek i\u00e7in de\u011ferlendirilebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Sterlin 1,3460\u2019ta sa\u011flam: Dolar m\u00fcdahale sonras\u0131 toparlansa da haftay\u0131 %1,3 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle kapat\u0131yor. GBP\/USD\u2019de 1,3365-1,3289 destek; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck %7,2 IV ile 1,3550 call, OTM put sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131x\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49995,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52163","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t