USD\/CHF, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc sert sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n toparlanmakta zorlanmas\u0131yla Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc erken kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 geri verdi. S\u00f6z konusu sat\u0131\u015f, JPY\u2019yi desteklemek amac\u0131yla \u015f\u00fcphelenilen Japon m\u00fcdahalesini izledi. Parite g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 0,8128 zirvesini g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 0,8086 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k %0,45 art\u0131da olsa da haftal\u0131k bazda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe y\u00f6nelmi\u015f durumda. Reuters\u2019\u0131n haberine g\u00f6re ABD Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc yen piyasas\u0131na m\u00fcdahale edebilece\u011fini birka\u00e7 bankaya iletti ve olas\u0131 ek ad\u0131mlar i\u00e7in haz\u0131r olmalar\u0131 \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu; bu durum, Greenback\u2019in alt\u0131 haftan\u0131n diplerinden toparlanma \u00e7abas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) 100,07 civar\u0131nda seyretti; g\u00fcn i\u00e7i 100,45 zirvesinden gerilerken, Brown Brothers Harriman DXY i\u00e7in 96,00\u2013100,00 band\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n\n
Fed, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc politika faizini be\u015finci toplant\u0131 \u00fcst \u00fcste %3,50\u2013%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tuttu; \u00fc\u00e7 politika yap\u0131c\u0131 derhal 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 destekledi. CME FedWatch Tool\u2019a g\u00f6re piyasalar Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %65 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. \u0130svi\u00e7re taraf\u0131nda ise dikkatler, y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyonun May\u0131s\u2019taki %0,6\u2019dan Haziran\u2019da %0,5\u2019e gerilemesinin ard\u0131ndan (SNB\u2019nin fiyat istikrar\u0131 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n alt band\u0131na yak\u0131n seyrederek) pazartesi a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Temmuz T\u00dcFE verisine \u00e7evrildi; bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, %0 politika faizi beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nin 100,07\u2019ye gerilemesi ve b\u00fcy\u00fck kurumlar\u0131n 96,00-100,00 band\u0131na do\u011fru d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6rmesiyle, t\u00fcrev i\u015flemcilerine USD y\u00fckseli\u015flerinde k\u0131sa pozisyon tesis etmelerini \u00f6neriyoruz. \u00d6zellikle USD\/CHF\u2019de kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) put opsiyonlar\u0131 almak, paritenin 0,8128\u2019deki son zirvesinden geri \u00e7ekilmesi halinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc getiri sa\u011flayabilir. Tarihsel olarak DXY\u2019nin 100 gibi kritik psikolojik seviyeleri kaybetti\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde, momentum de\u011fi\u015fimi takip eden haftalarda maj\u00f6r paritelerde %3-%5 aras\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri tetikleyebiliyor.<\/p>\n\n
ABD Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck bankalara yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 uyar\u0131yla \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan koordineli merkez bankas\u0131 m\u00fcdahalesi riski, USD \u00e7aprazlar\u0131 i\u00e7in ciddi bir kuyruk riski (tail risk) yarat\u0131yor. Bu ani oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6netmek i\u00e7in, t\u00fcrev i\u015flemcilerine USD\/JPY\u2019de uzun straddle stratejilerini veya \u00e7apraz kur opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 kullanmalar\u0131n\u0131 tavsiye ediyoruz. Japonya\u2019n\u0131n 60 milyar dolarl\u0131k tarihi yen al\u0131m operasyonlar\u0131 gibi ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki b\u00fcy\u00fck d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalelerinde ima edilen volatilite keskin \u015fekilde y\u00fckselmi\u015f; erken pozisyonlananlar i\u00e7in uzun volatilite opsiyon stratejileri olduk\u00e7a k\u00e2rl\u0131 hale gelmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n\n
Piyasalar\u0131n Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de Fed faiz art\u0131r\u0131m ihtimalini %65 olarak fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 mevcut tabloda, faiz t\u00fcrevleri cazip bir risk-getiri profili sunuyor. Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d duru\u015fu ile 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015ftan yana \u015fahin muhalefet aras\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in Eyl\u00fcl vadeli Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda i\u015flem yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde ekonomik veriler enflasyonda kat\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret etmeye devam ederse, bu %65 olas\u0131l\u0131k h\u0131zla %85\u2019e y\u00fckselebilir ve k\u0131sa vadeli Hazine tahvili getirilerini yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yabilir.<\/p>\n\n
\u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019de Temmuz enflasyon verisinin bu pazartesi a\u00e7\u0131klanacak olmas\u0131 nedeniyle, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131\u2019nda olas\u0131 hareketlere de haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekiyor. \u0130svi\u00e7re enflasyonu Haziran\u2019da yaln\u0131zca %0,5\u2019e geriledi\u011fi i\u00e7in, \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Frang\u2019\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 de\u011ferlenmesini \u00f6nlemek ad\u0131na politika faizini %0\u2019da tutma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek. SNB\u2019nin g\u00fcvercin duru\u015funun \u0130svi\u00e7re para birimindeki ani y\u00fckseli\u015fleri s\u0131n\u0131rlamas\u0131 beklenebilece\u011finden, prim geliri elde etmek amac\u0131yla k\u0131sa vadeli CHF call opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Dolar toparlanam\u0131yor: USD\/CHF 0,8128\u2019den geri \u00e7ekilirken DXY 100\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131. ABD\u2019nin olas\u0131 yen m\u00fcdahalesi ve Fed belirsizli\u011fi oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor; SNB\u2019de %0 faiz beklentisi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49961,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52162","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t