{"id":52161,"date":"2026-07-31T20:21:54","date_gmt":"2026-07-31T20:21:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/fedin-faizi-sabit-tutmasi-ve-abd-istihdam-verisi-oncesi-ecbnin-faiz-artirimina-yonelik-beklentilerin-guclenmesiyle-euro-hafif-yukseldi\/"},"modified":"2026-07-31T20:21:54","modified_gmt":"2026-07-31T20:21:54","slug":"fedin-faizi-sabit-tutmasi-ve-abd-istihdam-verisi-oncesi-ecbnin-faiz-artirimina-yonelik-beklentilerin-guclenmesiyle-euro-hafif-yukseldi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/fedin-faizi-sabit-tutmasi-ve-abd-istihdam-verisi-oncesi-ecbnin-faiz-artirimina-yonelik-beklentilerin-guclenmesiyle-euro-hafif-yukseldi\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed\u2019in faizi sabit tutmas\u0131 ve ABD istihdam verisi \u00f6ncesi ECB\u2019nin faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentilerin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle euro hafif y\u00fckseldi"},"content":{"rendered":"

EUR\/USD, Temmuz\u2019u 1,1500 civar\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015fle tamamlad\u0131; son haftada %1,1\u2019den fazla t\u0131rmanan parite kapan\u0131\u015f \u00f6ncesinde 1,1530\u2019u test etti. Haftan\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda ABD-\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131ndaki t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f ve yeniden artan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 aksamalar (bo\u011faz\u0131n tekrar kapanmas\u0131) dolara talebi destekledi; ard\u0131ndan sald\u0131r\u0131lara ara verilmesi ve \u201cg\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin\u201d g\u00fcndeme gelmesiyle risk i\u015ftah\u0131 dengelendi. Odak daha sonra Federal Rezerv\u2019e kayd\u0131: Fed, 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131 savunan \u00fc\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesel ba\u015fkan\u0131n muhalefetine ra\u011fmen be\u015finci toplant\u0131da da politika faizini %3,50-%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tuttu. Faiz fiyatlamas\u0131nda CME FedWatch Tool, Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 FOMC karar\u0131ndan bir hafta \u00f6nceki %55\u2019ten %65\u2019e y\u00fckseltti.<\/p>\n

ABD makro verileri de denkleme eklendi. \u00d6nc\u00fc 2\u00c7 GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bazda 1\u00c7\u2019deki %2,1\u2019den %1,5\u2019e yava\u015flarken, GSYH Fiyat Endeksi %3,6\u2019dan %6,3\u2019e h\u0131zland\u0131; \u00e7ekirdek PCE enflasyonu 2\u00c7 ve Haziran\u2019da %3,3 ile May\u0131s\u2019taki %3,4\u2019ten gerilese de %2 hedefinin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. Avrupa\u2019da Almanya\u2019da 2\u00c7 y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi %0,4\u2019ten %0,9\u2019a, Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde %0,3\u2019ten %1\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Temmuz HICP enflasyonu Almanya\u2019da %2,8 (\u00f6nceki %2,4), Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde ise %2,5 (%2,4\u2019ten) olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Piyasalar ECB\u2019nin Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f yapma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %65 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki hafta ISM PMI\u2019lar, nihai S&P Global PMI\u2019lar ve ABD istihdam verileri (tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam\/NFP dahil) izlenecek; NFP\u2019nin 57 binin ard\u0131ndan 91 bin artmas\u0131, i\u015fsizli\u011fin ise %4,2\u2019den %4,3\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrev Stratejisi: Euro ve Sterlinin G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine Pozisyon Alma<\/h3>\n

T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ABD dolar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli vadelerde Euro ve \u0130ngiliz sterlini lehine bir g\u00f6reli performans beklentisiyle pozisyonlanmalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Federal Rezerv\u2019in y\u00fcksek enflasyona ra\u011fmen faizi %3,50-%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tutmas\u0131, ABD swap spreadlerinin daralmas\u0131na ve getiri e\u011frisinin dikle\u015fmesine e\u015flik etti. Bu para politikas\u0131 \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d duru\u015fu, \u00f6zellikle 1,1568 civar\u0131ndaki kritik teknik diren\u00e7 hedefimiz dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, EUR\/USD uzun call opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 veya y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc risk reversal yap\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 olduk\u00e7a cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Tarihsel olarak b\u00fcy\u00fcme momentumu Avrupa lehine d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde\u2014Euro B\u00f6lgesi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi %1\u2019e y\u00fckselirken ABD b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi %1,5\u2019e yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda\u2014Euro belirgin bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivme kazanma e\u011filiminde oluyor. Bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, ge\u00e7mi\u015fte benzer b\u00fcy\u00fcme fark\u0131 daralmalar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fclerle uyumlu ve EUR\/USD\u2019yi birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde birka\u00e7 puan yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yabilmi\u015fti. Teredd\u00fctl\u00fc bir Fed\u2019e k\u0131yasla daha \u015fahin bir Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 beklentisine k\u0131sa vadeli faiz vadeli i\u015flemleriyle oynanmas\u0131n\u0131n, risk-getiri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olduk\u00e7a elveri\u015fli bir kurgu sundu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n

Risk Y\u00f6netimi: Volatiliteyi ve Jeopolitik Riski Y\u00f6netmek<\/h3>\n

Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, \u00f6zellikle ABD tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verisi etraf\u0131nda (i\u015fsizli\u011fin %4,3\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi bekleniyor) A\u011fustos ba\u015f\u0131nda artabilecek volatiliteye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekir. Bu f\u0131rsat\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in, yakla\u015fan istihdam ve ISM verilerinin tetikleyebilece\u011fi sert hareketleri yakalamak \u00fczere EUR\/USD\u2019de k\u0131sa vadeli straddle veya strangle opsiyon al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. ABD istihdam verisi beklenen 91 bin art\u0131\u015f\u0131n alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rsa, 1,1631\u2019deki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirgin \u015fekilde artacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Bununla birlikte, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 ani jeopolitik s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman talebiyle USD al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 bir anda tetikleyebilece\u011fi riskine kar\u015f\u0131 temkinli olunmal\u0131d\u0131r. Knock-out bariyer opsiyonlar\u0131 veya collar stratejileri uygulamak, Euro lehine y\u00fckseli\u015f pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 bu t\u00fcr ani riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f \u015foklar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korumaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir. Bu dengeli t\u00fcrev yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131, ABD para politikas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcndeki zay\u0131fl\u0131ktan faydalan\u0131rken jeopolitik kaynakl\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskleri s\u0131k\u0131 \u015fekilde s\u0131n\u0131rlamay\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

EUR\/USD temmuzda 1,15\u2019te kapan\u0131rken jeopolitik ve Fed\u2019in \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d duru\u015fu fiyatlamay\u0131 belirledi. Piyasalar Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de Fed\/ECB art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 %65 g\u00f6r\u00fcyor; euro-sterlin lehine opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50005,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52161","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t