NZD\/USD, \u00c7in\u2019de faaliyetlerin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair yeni kan\u0131tlar\u0131n risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131lamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 0,5860 civar\u0131nda seyretti ve seans\u0131 %0,33 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle tamamlad\u0131. \u00c7in\u2019in resmi NBS \u0130malat PMI\u2019\u0131 temmuzda 50,3\u2019ten 49,2\u2019ye gerileyerek 50 olan beklentinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. \u0130malat D\u0131\u015f\u0131 PMI ise 50,2\u2019den 49\u2019a indi ve ekonominin geneline yay\u0131lan daha zay\u0131f bir ivmeye i\u015faret etti. Yeni Zelanda\u2019da daha yap\u0131c\u0131 yerel sinyaller ise ikinci plana itildi: ANZ\u2013Roy Morgan T\u00fcketici G\u00fcveni Endeksi temmuzda 8 puan artarak 99,3\u2019e y\u00fckseldi; bu seviye \u015fubattan bu yana en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc okuma olurken, ekonomi beklentileri de \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 1 ve 5 y\u0131l i\u00e7in iyile\u015fti.<\/p>\n\n
ABD dolar\u0131, piyasalar\u0131n Fed\u2019in daha uzun s\u00fcre k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 duru\u015funu koruyabilece\u011fi ve bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 masada oldu\u011fu ihtimalini fiyatlamay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesiyle g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. CME FedWatch fiyatlamas\u0131, eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %65 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. ABD verileri de bu e\u011filimi destekledi: Michigan \u00dcniversitesi T\u00fcketici G\u00fcven Endeksi\u2019nin nihai de\u011feri 54,4\u2019ten 55,2\u2019ye revize edilirken, T\u00fcketici Beklentileri Endeksi 55,4\u2019e y\u00fckseltildi. 1 y\u0131ll\u0131k ve 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k t\u00fcketici enflasyon beklentileri s\u0131ras\u0131yla %4,2 ve %3,3 ile sabit kald\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yaratan \u00c7in ekonomik verilerinin ard\u0131ndan NZD\/USD paritesi 0,5860\u2019a gerilerken, t\u00fcrev piyasa yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda Kiwi dolarda k\u0131sa (short) pozisyonlara y\u00f6nelmesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. \u00c7in\u2019in imalat PMI\u2019\u0131n\u0131n 49,2\u2019ye gerileyerek daralma b\u00f6lgesine ge\u00e7mesiyle, yerel t\u00fcketici g\u00fcvenindeki diren\u00e7li g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme ra\u011fmen, ihracata ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 Yeni Zelanda ekonomisinin bask\u0131 hissetmesi ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz. Tarihsel olarak \u00c7in imalat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde daralma g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, emtia talebinin zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla NZD\/USD sonraki haftalarda \u00e7o\u011fu zaman ilave %2 ila %3 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kaydediyor.<\/p>\n\n
Faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli USD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 veya NZD vadeli kontratlar\u0131n sat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Piyasalar h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda eyl\u00fclde Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na %65 olas\u0131l\u0131k bi\u00e7iyor; %4,2\u2019de yap\u0131\u015fkan kalan enflasyon beklentileri de bu senaryoyu destekliyor. K\u0131r\u0131lgan k\u00fcresel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u015fahin Fed duru\u015fu, a\u011fustos boyunca dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini korumas\u0131na neden olabilir.<\/p>\n\n
Taktik i\u015flemler i\u00e7in, 0,5750 destek seviyesini hedefleyen kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 NZD\/USD sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir. \u00c7in ekonomik g\u00f6stergelerinin beklentileri ka\u00e7\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde tarihsel olarak y\u00fckselen z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131ktan yararlanmak, bu savunmac\u0131 opsiyonlarda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc getiri sa\u011flayabilir. Bu negatif senaryoya y\u00f6nelik temel yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskin, \u00c7in\u2019den gelebilecek ani te\u015fvik duyurular\u0131 oldu\u011funu unutmamak gerekir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" \u00c7in PMI daralmaya d\u00f6n\u00fcnce risk i\u015ftah\u0131 zay\u0131flad\u0131: NZD\/USD 0,5860\u2019ta %0,33 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. \u015eahin Fed ve %65 eyl\u00fcl art\u0131\u015f beklentisi dolar\u0131 destekliyor; 0,5750\u2019ye put\/short stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50043,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52159","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t