GBP\/JPY, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Japonya\u2019n\u0131n m\u00fcdahale etti\u011fi \u015f\u00fcphesiyle Yen\u2019in g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesinin ard\u0131ndan kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 geni\u015fletti; pariteyi 219,16\u2019daki \u00e7ok y\u0131ll\u0131k zirveden daha da uzakla\u015ft\u0131rarak Haziran diplerine yak\u0131n 213,75 civar\u0131na \u00e7ekti. Reuters\u2019\u0131n bir piyasa kayna\u011f\u0131na dayand\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 habere g\u00f6re Japonya, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD seans\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda 58,97 milyar dolara kadar ABD Dolar\u0131 sat\u0131p Yen alm\u0131\u015f olabilir; bu hamle 500 pipin \u00fczerindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle ayn\u0131 zamana denk geldi. Reuters\u2019\u0131n ayr\u0131 bir haberinde ise bir kaynak, ABD Hazine Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc birka\u00e7 bankaya Yen piyasas\u0131na m\u00fcdahale edebilece\u011fini iletti\u011fini ve ilave ad\u0131mlar i\u00e7in haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmalar\u0131n\u0131 istedi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n\n
Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ), 8\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 1 oyla politika faizini %1,0\u2019da tuttu ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile enflasyon tahminlerle uyumlu seyrederse bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerini art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yineledi. \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) ise 6\u2019ya kar\u015f\u0131 3 oyla Banka Faizi\u2019ni %3,75\u2019te b\u0131rakt\u0131; \u00fc\u00e7 \u00fcye faizin derhal %4,0\u2019a y\u00fckseltilmesini savundu ve enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ikinci tur etkiler yaratmas\u0131 halinde politikan\u0131n ayarlanabilece\u011fini belirtti. Teknik tarafta GBP\/JPY, 21 g\u00fcnl\u00fck, 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ve 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019lar\u0131n alt\u0131nda; RSI 30\u2019lar\u0131n ortas\u0131nda seyrederken MACD negatif b\u00f6lgede ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Diren\u00e7ler 214,48, 215,65, 217,42 ve 219,50 seviyelerinde izlenirken; destekler 212,50 ve ard\u0131ndan 210,50\u2019de bulunuyor.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara, \u015f\u00fcphelenilen 59 milyar dolarl\u0131k Japon m\u00fcdahalesinin hemen ard\u0131ndan artan oynakl\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmalar\u0131n\u0131 ve GBP\/JPY pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 buna g\u00f6re h\u0131zla ayarlamalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Bu agresif ad\u0131m, 2024\u2019te Japonya\u2019n\u0131n 9,8 trilyon yen (62,2 milyar dolar) tutar\u0131ndaki tarih\u00ee m\u00fcdahale kampanyas\u0131na benzerlik g\u00f6steriyor; s\u00f6z konusu kampanya, \u00e7ok haftal\u0131 trend d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015flerini ba\u015far\u0131yla tetiklemi\u015fti. \u00c7apraz kurun 21 g\u00fcnl\u00fck, 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ve 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131na sert bi\u00e7imde inmi\u015f olmas\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentuma e\u015flik etmek i\u00e7in yak\u0131n vadeli put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Teknik olarak ilk hedefin 212,50\u2019deki yak\u0131n destek taban\u0131, g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f zay\u0131f kalmaya devam ederse ikinci hedefin 210,50 civar\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. RSI\u2019nin 30\u2019lar\u0131n ortas\u0131nda bulunmas\u0131 ve MACD\u2019nin negatif olmas\u0131, prim maliyetini s\u0131n\u0131rlarken d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalanmak ad\u0131na bear put spread stratejilerini g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Paritenin toparlan\u0131p 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama olan 214,48\u2019in \u00fczerine yerle\u015fmesi halinde, korunmac\u0131 stop-loss\u2019lar belirlenmesini veya k\u0131sa vadeli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131n kapat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n
Bununla birlikte, temel getiri fark\u0131n\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 Sterlin\u2019i destekledi\u011fini unutmamak gerekir; BoE faizi %3,75\u2019te tutarken BoJ faizi %1,0 seviyesinde. Bu faiz fark\u0131, m\u00fcdahale kaynakl\u0131 panik yat\u0131\u015ft\u0131ktan sonra ta\u015f\u0131ma i\u015flemlerini (carry trade) temel olarak yeniden cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu nedenle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda 219,50 seviyesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 bir toparlanmaya pozisyon almak i\u00e7in uzun vadeli call opsiyonlar\u0131 veya bull risk reversal yap\u0131lar\u0131 kurulmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" \u015eok geli\u015fme: Reuters\u2019a g\u00f6re Japonya 59 milyar $\u2019a varan m\u00fcdahaleyle Yen\u2019i g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi, GBP\/JPY\u2019yi 219,16 zirvesinden 213,75\u2019e itti. BoJ\/BoE faizi sabit; teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, destek 212,50-210,50.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50081,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52157","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t