Sterlin, ba\u015fl\u0131ca para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda hafif gerilerken, GBP\/USD Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc erken Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde 1,3444\u20131,3445 civar\u0131nda seyretti. Hareket, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc karar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan piyasalar\u0131n yak\u0131n vadeli s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmay\u0131 daha az fiyatlamas\u0131yla, Bank of England\u2019\u0131n (BoE) Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131na ili\u015fkin faiz beklentilerinin yeniden de\u011ferlendirilmesini izledi. Deutsche Bank, Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu\u2019ndaki (MPC) b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f oylamaya ra\u011fmen BoE\u2019nin faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na do\u011fru ilerlemedi\u011fini belirtirken, Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de art\u0131\u015fa y\u00f6nelik z\u0131mni olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n %60\u2019tan %30\u2019a geriledi\u011fini kaydetti.<\/p>\n
Parite 1,3450\u2019nin alt\u0131na zay\u0131flarken, daha geni\u015f y\u00fckseli\u015f trendinin korundu\u011fu ifade edildi. \u00d6te yandan ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na talep, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da artan gerilim ve y\u00fckselen k\u00fcresel petrol fiyatlar\u0131yla destek buldu. Michigan \u00dcniversitesi T\u00fcketici G\u00fcveni Endeksi Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ilerleyen saatlerde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. Di\u011fer tarafta, \u0130ran Meclis Ba\u015fkan\u0131, Ke\u015fm Adas\u0131\u2019ndaki sivil evlere y\u00f6nelik ABD sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 ele\u015ftirdi; g\u00fcney \u0130ran genelindeki f\u00fcze sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 Ke\u015fm Adas\u0131 ile birlikte Bu\u015fehr, Fars ve Huzistan\u2019daki b\u00f6lgeleri de i\u00e7erdi. Piyasalar ayr\u0131ca y\u0131l sonuna kadar 31 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlad\u0131; bu, g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde 11,4 baz puan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n Eyl\u00fcl faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla fiyatlamadan \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131yla, t\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda sterlin taraf\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f (bearish) ya da n\u00f6tr stratejilere y\u00f6nelmesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bank of England\u2019\u0131n faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na ili\u015fkin z\u0131mni olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n %60\u2019tan %30\u2019a ani d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, GBP\/USD paritesinin 1,3440 seviyesi yak\u0131n\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Sterlin \u00fczerine k\u0131sa vadeli put opsiyonlar\u0131 kullanmak veya bear call spread pozisyonlar\u0131 kurmak, para politikas\u0131 beklentilerindeki bu ani de\u011fi\u015fimden faydalanmam\u0131za yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n
Ayn\u0131 zamanda, tarihsel olarak sermayeyi ABD Dolar\u0131 gibi g\u00fcvenli liman varl\u0131klar\u0131na y\u00f6nelten Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki artan jeopolitik s\u00fcrt\u00fc\u015fmeyi de dikkate almal\u0131y\u0131z. G\u00fcney \u0130ran\u2019daki sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 da i\u00e7eren son askeri gerilim, Brent ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerini %3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselterek varil ba\u015f\u0131na 85 dolar civar\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131rken, hem enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 hem de \u201cgreenback\u201di destekledi. Yeniden g\u00fc\u00e7lenen dolar riskine kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak ad\u0131na, mevcut \u00e7oklu para birimli portf\u00f6yleri korumak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 piyasa d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) USD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Merkez bankas\u0131 patikalar\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fim ile t\u0131rmanan jeopolitik risklerin birle\u015fimi nedeniyle, yak\u0131n vadede FX volatilitesinin belirgin \u015fekilde artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Tarihsel olarak, GBP\/USD\u2019de 1 ayl\u0131k z\u0131mni volatilite tipik baz seviyesi olan yakla\u015f\u0131k %7,2\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, uzun straddle stratejileri opsiyon yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in olduk\u00e7a k\u00e2rl\u0131 hale gelebiliyor. Bu d\u0131\u015fsal k\u00fcresel \u015foklar d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131na yans\u0131maya devam ederken, volatiliteyi do\u011frudan sat\u0131n almay\u0131 ya da daha geni\u015f i\u015flem bantlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik pozisyon almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeliyiz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Sterlin zay\u0131fl\u0131yor: BoE\u2019nin Eyl\u00fcl faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimali %60\u2019tan %30\u2019a indi, GBP\/USD 1,3440\u2019ta bask\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi dolar\u0131 ve petrol\u00fc desteklerken opsiyonlarda bearish\/n\u00f6tr, hedge ve straddle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49989,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52146","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t