Euro, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc sert sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan dolar\u0131n (greenback) k\u0131sa pozisyon kapama al\u0131mlar\u0131yla g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi sonucu Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda geriledi ve EUR\/USD paritesi yeniden 1,1500 seviyesinin alt\u0131na indi. Parite 1,1488 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, bir g\u00fcn \u00f6nce kaydedilen alt\u0131 haftan\u0131n zirvesi 1,1537 seviyesinden geri \u00e7ekildi. Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik gerilimler ve ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019na (Fed) ili\u015fkin \u015fahin beklentiler dolar\u0131 destekledi; ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) yakla\u015f\u0131k 100,34 seviyesinde, seans i\u00e7inde %0,37 y\u00fckseli\u015fteydi. Piyasalar, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ilerleyen saatlerde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Michigan \u00dcniversitesi nihai t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni ve enflasyon beklentileri verilerini takip ediyor.<\/p>\n
Fed, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc politika faizini %3,50-%3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tutarken, \u00fc\u00e7 politika yap\u0131c\u0131 25 baz puanl\u0131k acil bir art\u0131\u015ftan yana muhalefet \u015ferhi koydu. CME FedWatch Tool \u00fczerinden fiyatlamalar, Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %66 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor; y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ise enflasyon riski kayna\u011f\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde Temmuz ay\u0131 \u00f6nc\u00fc HICP enflasyonu y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %2,9 ile beklentilere paralel gelirken, Haziran\u2019daki %2,8 seviyesinden hafif y\u00fckseldi; \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon ise %2,4\u2019ten %2,5\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Societe Generale, verilerin ECB\u2019nin 2026 3. \u00e7eyrek i\u00e7in y\u0131ll\u0131k %2,5\u2019lik Haziran projeksiyonu ile \u2014 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir 2026 2. \u00e7eyrek GSYH verisiyle birlikte \u2014 uyumlu kalmaya devam etti\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, hem Fed\u2019in hem de Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda olas\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na i\u015faret etmesi nedeniyle EUR\/USD paritesinde artan volatiliteye haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. Paritenin \u015fu anda 1,1488 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesi ve a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalmas\u0131, EUR\/USD\u2019de k\u0131sa vadeli put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 yak\u0131n vadeli dolar g\u00fcc\u00fcnden faydalanmak i\u00e7in \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karabilir. Tarihsel veriler, iki merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n e\u015f zamanl\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6nemlerinde kur volatilitesinin tipik olarak %20\u2019ye kadar artabildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor; bu da straddle gibi volatilite-al\u0131m stratejilerini \u00f6zellikle cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Fed yetkililerinden gelen \u015fahin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar ve Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %66\u2019ya y\u00fckselmesi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Alt\u0131n\u2019\u0131n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir d\u00fczeltmeye kar\u015f\u0131 olduk\u00e7a k\u0131r\u0131lgan oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Faiz oranlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f, getiri sa\u011flamayan varl\u0131klar\u0131 elde tutman\u0131n f\u0131rsat maliyetini y\u00fckseltir; bu da tarihsel olarak parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fclerinde alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7eker. Enflasyon riskleri yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filimde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar bu makro bask\u0131ya kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak amac\u0131yla alt\u0131n vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmelidir.<\/p>\n
ABD ile Euro B\u00f6lgesi aras\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fen beklentilerden yararlanmak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli faiz vadeli kontratlar\u0131na odaklan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 da \u00f6neriyoruz. Euro B\u00f6lgesi \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonunun %2,5\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi ve \u00fc\u00e7 Fed politika yap\u0131c\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n halihaz\u0131rda acil faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131 yapmas\u0131, piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131 ile merkez bankas\u0131 ad\u0131m\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Faiz vadeli i\u015flemlerinde pozisyon almak, merakla beklenen Eyl\u00fcl politika toplant\u0131lar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde potansiyel kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n g\u00fcvence alt\u0131na al\u0131nmas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Dolar short kapamalarla g\u00fc\u00e7lenince EUR\/USD 1,1500 alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131; DXY 100,34. Fed\u2019de \u015fahin ayr\u0131\u015fma, Eyl\u00fcl %66 art\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131. ECB enflasyonu %2,9. Hedging: put, straddle, faiz vadeli. Alt\u0131n k\u0131r\u0131lgan.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50005,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52145","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t