{"id":52144,"date":"2026-07-31T15:23:18","date_gmt":"2026-07-31T15:23:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/cinin-temmuz-cflp-bilesik-pmii-50nin-altina-geriledi-yuan-ve-hisse-senetleri-uzerindeki-baski-artti\/"},"modified":"2026-07-31T15:23:18","modified_gmt":"2026-07-31T15:23:18","slug":"cinin-temmuz-cflp-bilesik-pmii-50nin-altina-geriledi-yuan-ve-hisse-senetleri-uzerindeki-baski-artti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/cinin-temmuz-cflp-bilesik-pmii-50nin-altina-geriledi-yuan-ve-hisse-senetleri-uzerindeki-baski-artti\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7in\u2019in Temmuz CFLP bile\u015fik PMI\u2019\u0131 50\u2019nin alt\u0131na geriledi; yuan ve hisse senetleri \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131 artt\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u00c7in\u2019in Temmuz CFLP bile\u015fik PMI\u2019\u0131 1,3 puan gerileyerek 49,3\u2019e indi; bu seviye Aral\u0131k 2022\u2019den bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00fczey olurken, hem imalat hem de imalat d\u0131\u015f\u0131 endekslerin 50 e\u015fi\u011finin alt\u0131na kaymas\u0131 sekt\u00f6rler genelinde geni\u015f tabanl\u0131 bir yava\u015flamaya i\u015faret etti. \u0130malat PMI\u2019\u0131 1,1 puan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 49,2\u2019ye geriledi; bu okuma Bloomberg beklentisi olan 50,1\u2019in ve Haziran\u2019daki 50,3\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Anket alt kalemlerinde \u00fcretim 51,4\u2019ten 49,9\u2019a gerilerken, yeni sipari\u015fler 51,2\u2019den 48,5\u2019e ve yeni ihracat sipari\u015fleri 50,1\u2019den 49,6\u2019ya indi. \u0130stihdam ise istisna oldu: 48,5\u2019ten 49,0\u2019a y\u00fckselerek son 40 ay\u0131n en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyine ula\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n\n

30 Temmuz\u2019daki Politb\u00fcro toplant\u0131s\u0131nda yetkililer \u201ckademeli\u201d tedbirler, daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kar\u015f\u0131-d\u00f6ng\u00fcsel ayarlamalar, i\u00e7 talebi geni\u015fletmeye ve arz\u0131 optimize etmeye y\u00f6nelik ad\u0131mlar ile \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131 rekabet\u00e7i\u201d (involutionary) rekabete kar\u015f\u0131 eylem s\u00f6z\u00fc verdi. A\u00e7\u0131klamada ayr\u0131ca, kilit projeleri, yeni altyap\u0131y\u0131 ve sosyal giri\u015fimleri desteklemek \u00fczere mali harcamalar\u0131n h\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 ve tahvil kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131r\u0131laca\u011f\u0131; bunun yan\u0131nda parasal ara\u00e7lar\u0131n esnek bi\u00e7imde devreye al\u0131naca\u011f\u0131 belirtildi. Politika oda\u011f\u0131, 2\u00c726 GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin resmi %4,5\u2013%5,0 hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda gelmesinin ard\u0131ndan b\u00fcy\u00fcmede kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede PBOC\u2019nin referans 7 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ters repo faizinin 2026 boyunca %1,40\u2019ta kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n\n

D\u00f6viz ve Hisse Senedi T\u00fcrevleri G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/h3>\n\n

\u00c7in\u2019in Temmuz\u2019da bile\u015fik PMI\u2019\u0131n\u0131n 49,3\u2019e gerilemesiyle birlikte, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda Yuan \u00fczerinde istikrarl\u0131 bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 bekliyoruz. T\u00fcrev piyasa i\u015flemcileri, bu kur zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan faydalanmak i\u00e7in USD\/CNH al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir. Tarihsel olarak, i\u00e7 talep zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ve ihracat sipari\u015fleri 49,6\u2019ya geriledi\u011finde, para birimi ekonomik dengeleyici olarak zay\u0131flama e\u011filimi g\u00f6sterir.<\/p>\n\n

Ayr\u0131ca imalat PMI\u2019\u0131ndaki 49,2\u2019ye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn \u00c7in hisse endeksleri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan k\u0131sa vadede bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etmesi nedeniyle hisse t\u00fcrevlerine odaklan\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyoruz. CSI 300 endeksi \u00fczerinde ima edilen volatilite sat\u0131n almak veya sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak, ani sat\u0131\u015f dalgalar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 portf\u00f6yleri koruyabilir. Bu strateji, zay\u0131f ekonomik veriler ile vaat edilen mali te\u015fvikin gecikmeli etkisi aras\u0131ndaki farktan yararlan\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n

Faiz Piyasas\u0131 Stratejisi<\/h3>\n\n

Faiz taraf\u0131nda, merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n kilit faizleri y\u0131l boyunca muhtemelen %1,40\u2019ta tutmas\u0131 nedeniyle, devlet tahvili getirilerinin bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. B\u00fcy\u00fcmenin hedef aral\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131, tahvil vadeli i\u015flemlerinde uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir defansif i\u015flem olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. \u0130\u015flemciler, h\u00fck\u00fcmet yeni altyap\u0131 i\u00e7in yerel tahvil ihra\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmadan \u00f6nce, bu kontratlar\u0131 kullanarak mevcut getiri seviyelerini kilitleyebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00c7in\u2019in Temmuz PMI\u2019\u0131 49,3\u2019le Aral\u0131k 2022\u2019den beri dipte: imalat\/imalat d\u0131\u015f\u0131 50 alt\u0131na indi, sipari\u015fler zay\u0131f. Politb\u00fcro kademeli te\u015fvik sinyali verdi. Yuan bask\u0131, opsiyon\/put ve tahvil long \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50301,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52144","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t